• Kiambaa by-election was seen as a friendly fire.
• However, this will change once Ruto officially divorces Jubilee.
Image: COURTESY
They say politics make strange bedfellows and there are no permanent enemies, only interests. And this is specifically so where political formations and contestations are along ethnic lines. Kenya is one such country. Since the advent of multiparty politics in Kenya, we have witnessed different political parties or coalitions metamorphose after every electoral cycle. While others die, new ones are born. Prof P.L.O Lumumba likens Kenya’s political scene to a forest in which 'the forest changes but the monkeys remain the same'.
Against all odds
Friends of today were once fierce opponents yesterday or could be the next day. The union between Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto was one such, driven by interests and personal survival against prosecution by the International Criminal Court (ICC) rather than an ideological disposition. Kenyatta and Ruto were accused of being behind the 2007-08 violence and were charged at the ICC at The Hague. In the ethnic fighting, more than 1,000 people were killed, and at least 250,000 were uprooted from their homes. When Uhuru and Ruto came together in 2012, many analysts pointed that their political marriage would not last. They were proved wrong when the two went ahead to collapse their tribal parties and formed one party of unity. In September 2016, Jubilee Party was formed following the merger of eleven other smaller parties. Key among them was The National Alliance (TNA) led by President Uhuru Kenyatta and the United Republican Party (URP) by DP Ruto. What followed were concerted efforts to win the 2017 General Elections. This gave them leverage over their opposition contenders, NASA. As a result, Jubilee did not only win majority seats in both Parliament and Senate but also made sure they won seats in regions that were predominantly NASA – such as Lang’ata.
Division in Jubilee and Ruto’s succession plan
The bromance that once characterized these allies turned foe is long gone. The animosity between them is evident and Jubilee's collapse is imminent. The disgruntlement in Jubilee has further been exacerbated by the infighting between the allies of President Uhuru Kenyatta and those of DP Ruto. The party has been torn right in the middle with pro-Uhuru’s leaders referring to themselves as ‘Kieleweke’ and pro-Ruto’s allies also known as ‘Tangatanga’. A splinter group allied to DP Ruto has since formed a new party The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and is contesting, sometimes winning parliamentary and civic seats in every by-election conducted since it was founded. DP Ruto and his allies once alluded that there were powerful individuals within the party organs who wanted to force them out of the party and do not want him to succeed his boss. This was further fuelled by President Uhuru himself publicly stating that he will back one of the opposition supporters and not his DP, a narrative that gains traction when he quipped that “Kenya siyo kabila mbili” (Kenya is not for two tribes) during the burial of ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi’s mother in Vihiga. He was alluding to the fact that it is high time the presidency was occupied by another tribe other than Kikuyu and Kalenjin. There on, DP Ruto’s succession plans seemed hit with a hammering blow. Steadily though, with a hiatus brought about by the High Court checkmating the BBI reggae, the former chicken seller and son of a peasant has breathed a lease of life, boosted by his apparent allies’ performance and victories in the recent by-elections in Juja, and most recently in Kiambaa. While these wins give DP Ruto and his allies some credence, winning a few civic and parliamentary seats in the Mt. Kenya region cannot be equivocated to winning the presidency. For the first time, the region might go into the presidential elections without a candidate, and it would be interesting to see how the DP performs there.
There is no guessing that is the DP not a member of the Jubilee Party, functionally speaking. There is no doubt that he plans to use UDA as his vehicle to State House next year and that he is already on full throttle. The Jubilee side of Uhuru Kenyatta seemingly have seen the signs, and as was expected, is already planning a robust rebuild, beginning with proper grassroots party elections and, among other things, ridding the party of ‘interim officials’ ahead of the 2022 elections. It made good humour when the party Vice Chairman, David Murathe termed everyone ‘including the party leader’ as an interim official. The message was of course directed to the DP and his allies. He will cease being the Deputy Party Leader; his allies will cease being party officials. It has been suggested that the rebuilding of Jubilee will not include a purge of DP and his allies, but also a change in the party symbol and colours – which would include getting rid of URP colours from Jubilee.
As Jubilee will be rebuilding, for we want to believe, the rebels will be free to build their own party without meddling in another faction’s affair. It will no longer be a friendly fire as Nyeri Town MP Hon Wambugu had termed the Kiambaa contest. It now remains to be seen what the DP will do with the marriage now officially null. He must realize that there are some rights a separated woman enjoys that cease to exist once she is officially divorced. If he had thought that he would be in both Jubilee and UDA at the same time till elections are called I think he needs to begin seeing himself already shoved out. As for President Uhuru Kenyatta, he has all the time, power, and support to rebuild his party and deliver on his promise of a peaceful transition to the next government.
Amin is a university lecturer