• WMO says in the last ten years, conflict, extreme weather events and economic shocks have increased in frequency and intensity.
• Between 2015 and 2021, most of northern Kenya – such as Wajir, Mandera and Marsabit counties – has had little or no rain.
Image: /ANDREW KASUKU
This year is almost certain to go down among the 10 hottest ever recorded.
This is according to several agencies including the World Meteorological Organization and the US’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
For Kenya, the Meteorological department already identifies 2021 as one of the driest.
The hot weather and lack of rains in about 23 counties have left about 2.5 million people in Kenya surviving only on donated food.
Currently, the six datasets used by WMO place 2021 as the sixth or seventh-warmest year on record globally, the "State of Climate in 2021" report shows. But the ranking may change at the end of the year.
The report shows that 2021 will be between the fifth and seventh-warmest year on record and that 2015 to 2021 will be the seventh-warmest years on record.
Between 2015 and 2021, most of northern Kenya – such as Wajir, Mandera and Marsabit counties – has had little or no rain.
WMO says in the last 10 years, conflict, extreme weather events and economic shocks have increased in frequency and intensity.
It says the compounded effects of these shocks, worsened by the Covid-19 pandemic, have led to a rise in hunger and, consequently, undermined decades of progress towards improving food security.
“Extreme events are the new norm,” WMO secretary general Prof Petteri Taalas said. “There is mounting scientific evidence that some of these bear the footprint of human-induced climate change.”
Following a peak in undernourishment in 2020 (768 million people), projections indicated a decline in global hunger to around 710 million in 2021 (nine per cent). However, as of October 2021, the numbers in many countries, including Kenya, were already higher than in 2020.
This increase (19 per cent) was mostly felt among groups already suffering from food crises or worse, rising from 135 million people in 2020 to 161 million by September 2021.
Another dire consequence of these shocks was the growing number of people facing starvation and a total collapse of livelihoods, mostly in Ethiopia, South Sudan, Yemen and Madagascar (584,000 people).
The extreme weather during the 2020-21 La Niña altered rainfall seasons contributing to disruptions to livelihoods and agricultural campaigns across the world.
Extreme weather events and conditions, often exacerbated by climate change, have had major and diverse impacts on population displacement and on the vulnerability of people already displaced throughout the year.
The USAID-sponsored Famine Early Warning Systems Network says multi-year drought is likely to occur again in East Africa in 2021-22.
This will lead to food and income losses with the risk of crop failure and excess livestock mortality.
FEWS NET collects, analyses and distributes information to decision makers regarding potential or current famine and flood situations.
FEWS NET's November’s East Africa food security alert indicated that the Horn of Africa region is facing its third consecutive below-average rainfall season since late 2020.
This, the report showed, is likely to intensify the ongoing drought and significantly worsen food insecurity through at least mid-2022.
“Multiple regional and global forecast models concur that October to December (OND) 2021 rainfall will be below average, primarily due to negative Indian Ocean Dipole and La Niña conditions," the report stated.
"Furthermore, research on historical climate patterns suggests elevated chances of a fourth consecutive below-average rainfall season from March to May 2022. The region last witnessed a four-season drought in 2016/2017, which led to severe acute food insecurity in eastern Horn."
Currently, FEWS NET estimates up to 20 million people in Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia and Uganda will need food assistance through mid-2022 due not only to the impact of drought, but also conflict, insecurity, and economic challenges, including the complex humanitarian emergency in northern Ethiopia.
The report called on national governments and donors to urgently scale up and sustain food, water, nutrition, and health assistance.
In October, government spokesperson Cyrus Oguna said the state had set aside an additional Sh1.2 billion for drought intervention for the month of November.
He said the state had continued to provide support to Kenyans who are faced with food distress that has been occasioned by the ongoing drought in certain parts of the country.
“Kenyans are also encouraged to be mindful of their neighbours, and those who are blessed with a little more, to come out and share with those that are less privileged. As a people, we are known for standing with one another during such times. This is the spirit that is called for during situations of this nature,” Oguna said.
This in addition to livelihood protection programmes to prevent severe acute food insecurity, rising acute malnutrition levels, and the erosion of resilience and coping capacity through at least mid-2022.
The Kenya Drought Flash Appeal for the October to December 2021 report showed that the cumulative impact of two consecutive poor rainy seasons, coupled with the Covid-19 pandemic, insecurity, pests and diseases caused humanitarian needs to rapidly rise in the arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya.
This is what led to the declaration of a national disaster by President Uhuru Kenyatta on September 8 this year. Both the 2020 short rains (October to December) and the 2021 long rains (March to May) were poor across the ASAL counties.
“The two rainy seasons were characterised by late onset rainfall in most counties, as well as poor distribution of rainfall in time and space. In addition, forecasts indicate that the upcoming short rains season (October to December 2021) is likely to be below-average, compounded by the negative Indian Ocean Dipole,” the report stated.
Edited by A.N