How Ruto, Raila deal could kill political careers

The partnership between President William Ruto and opposition chief Raila Odinga is triggering jitters across the political divide as the reality of its impact sinks.

In the lead-up to the 2022 polls, some political heavyweights fell by the wayside as they became casualties of then-president Uhuru Kenyatta's deal with Raila.

Some who wanted to run for the tickets of their political parties were forced to step down for rivals, as Azimio La Umoja One Kenya coalition party zoned some areas.

Others lost because Raila or Uhuru would not campaign for them directly in their strongholds over fears of hurting coalition partners.

The Azimio coalition had more than a dozen political parties that came together in the 2022 general election, ostensibly to unite the country while attempting to block Ruto's ascension to power.

For instance in Nyamira County, both Jubilee and ODM fielded candidates for the gubernatorial seat in what handed Governor Amos Nyaribo an easy ride to retain the seat on the UPA ticket.

There are fears that the same political cannibalism could dog the newly found unity government, threatening to kill some political careers.

Political analyst Alexander Nyamboga said on Tuesday that Kenya Kwanza is walking down the same path Jubilee and ODM followed ahead of the 2022 polls.

"The consequence of the new alignment is that some politicians would have to sacrifice their ambitions or risk losing at the ballot because this brings an all-new ball game,'' he said.

"Politicians must be very calculative because there is a possibility of a political arrangement that might see ODM and UDA work together in 2027.''

Just like how Azimio la Umoja One Kenya’s collaboration with the Jubilee party reshaped the run-up to the 2022 polls, the emerging unity between Raila and Ruto could realign the 2027 elections.

Already, a section of politicians from across the political divide have openly protested the rapprochement, exposing their fears over the shifting grounds ahead of the 2027 polls.

Some leaders from Western Kenya including UDA Secretary General Cleophas Malala are pushing for new unity campaigns, bringing together strange political bedfellows.

"We are coming together so that we audit and even look at the budget allocation for the year 2024/25 to see what projects have been funded for the Western region,'' said Malala.

"It can't be that when someone has been given a seat from this region, the people of this region have benefitted, it can't be.''

The section of leaders held a meeting on Monday as they schemed how to realign themselves ahead of 2027.

Curiously, some of Raila's allies including ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna are in the group.

The latest next-generation leadership campaign is promising to galvanise support from key politicians from the Mulembe nation led by Trans Nzoia governor George Natembeya.

There are signals that there is emerging revolt against the Kenya Kwanza government and Azimio la Umoja One Kenya with young leaders from Western Kenya pushing for unity.

On Monday, President Ruto came face-to-face with the tensions building in his camp after his key UDA stalwarts from Mombasa County openly expressed their fears over the unity government.

Political analysts have argued that the proposed unity government might give President Ruto more reelection options including teaming up with Raila to secure a second term in office.

While on his development tour of Mombasa, President Ruto had to reassure his troops that his unity deal with Raila was not aimed at scuttling anybody’s political ambitions.

This was after Nyali MP Mohamed Ali, an influential bigwig in the UDA party, asked the president not to meddle in local politics and to allow free and fair competition ahead of the 2027 polls.

“Even if you have said we build a government of national unity, I want to ask that you leave local politics to us so that we square it out among ourselves, you concentrate on national politics," Ali told the President.

The MP said that while the UDA family in Mombasa have welcomed the government of national unity, those given Cabinet slots should know that they hold that on trust of Kenyans, not a region.

“Now that you have said we are forming a government of national unity for all Kenyans, we welcome Joho but tell him that the national flag is not for the Mombasa region but the whole country, he should stop meddling in Mombasa issues,’’ he said.

President Ruto’s nomination of Hassan Joho, the former Mombasa governor, as CS for Mining and Blue Economy has lifted the lid on the tensions building in the Kenya Kwanza formation over 2027 ambitions.

Joho is a key ODM linchpin who retired as Mombasa governor but has massive political influence across the coast region.

Joho is also an ally of his successor Abdulswamad Nassir, one of the Nyali MP’s main opponents for the Mombasa governor’s seat alongside EALA MP Hassan Omar.

There are fears from those in Kenya Kwanza that Joho might use his influence to reshape the 2027 gubernatorial and parliamentary contests to his advantage.

But President Ruto cautioned that leaders must have the bigger picture of his unity government plans as the most immediate course to unite all Kenyans.

“Despite coming from different political formations, we must put the country’s interests first by embracing unity and teamwork,” President Ruto said.

“Nyali people, I am humbly pleading for unity. I can see here in Nyali there is a supremacy battle. My call for you is just one: support us in this cause because Kenya and Kenyans are more important than the popularity of our leaders.”

Ali is expected to compete with Omar for the UDA gubernatorial ticket in the 2027 polls.

Omar, who has been warming up to Joho for several months, said his (Joho's) inclusion to the Cabinet shows the Kenya Kwanza government is inclusive.

“We thank you for appointing my brother (former Mombasa Governor Hassan) Joho to the Cabinet. We are behind you in ensuring you bring a united government, a broad-based government that is inclusive,” he said during President Ruto’s stopover in Likoni, Kwale County.

Ruto is walking a tightrope to balance political interests as he tours various parts of the country after weeks of protests.

However, Ruto has clarified that he did not enter into a political coalition with Raila following the nomination of ODM members to the cabinet.

Speaking during a town hall engagement with residents in Mombasa, Ruto said the arrangement he has with ODM is solely to unite the country.

"Let me clarify as the party of ODM did, that we did not form a coalition government, nobody should say that we are trying to compromise the opposition," Ruto said.

"We have no formal coalition arrangement, what we have is running an administration on matters that we have agreed, members of ODM who have agreed to come and work with us so that we can put the country first and be able to deal with challenges that bring Kenya to where it is." 

The President said that he is not keen on who will take credit.