- What is clear now is the fact that ODM will not be enjoying the blanket support it has enjoyed in the past.
- That puts Otuoma in a major quandary to effectively defend his seat against contestants he has never faced before.
Image: FILE
Busia county politics may take a different turn altogether in the 2027 general election following the recent cooperation between ODM leader Raila Odinga and President William Ruto. The county has for decades voted overwhelmingly for ODM in protest of past governments.
Immediately after the 2022 election, President Ruto toured Busia county courtesy of Governor Paul Otuoma who won the seat on an ODM ticket with devastating consequences. This is because the governor was considered to have betrayed ODM for UDA by being too close to Ruto not just in local national forums, but also in international ones.
By the end of last year, the governor was paying for the consequences not only with the force of charged angry crowds, but also violence. That was clearly witnessed during Raila’s last official visit in the county, where the governor was wildly booed and denied to speak in Busia town. On the other hand, the ODM leader received wild cheers. The windscreen of Otuoma’s official limousine car was smashed by irate mobs as he left the venue, marking the beginning of the 'one-term governor' tag.
In the previous electioneering years, voters have cast votes for individuals into elective offices with no consideration whether they will effectively serve them or not just because they had bagged the ODM nomination tickets.
Indeed, former Budalang’i legislator and Cabinet Secretary Ababu Namwamba lost his seat after decamping from ODM to Ruto’s wings, while his predecessor Raphael Wanjala recaptured that seat after decamping from Ford-Kenya to ODM. But that's just the tip of the iceberg.
It is also a fact that since the beginning of devolution, the county has had two ODM governors whose performance has been extremely wanting. The first was Sospeter Ojaamong’ who reportedly lost to Vincent Sidai. Ojaamong’ hardly ever went out on the gruelling campaign trails like his financier and then Senate candidate Amos Wako.
This was well captured in one of the leading newspapers in the country reporting Ojaamong as being one of the gubernatorial losers that year. His fierce rival,Sidai, later won a multi-million shillings deal which landed his SOW construction company a multimillion tender to construct the Busia County Referral Hospital which he allegedly abandoned before completion even after being paid the cash.
In the last general election, Otuoma vied on an ODM ticket, outgoing Nambale MP Sakwa Bunyasi on ANC, ex-Busia education chief officer Daniel Mogoria on National Agenda Party, businessman Michael Oloo on National Liberation Party and then Deputy Governor Michael Mulomi on a DAP-K ticket.
What is clear now is the fact that ODM will not be enjoying the blanket support it has enjoyed in the past. That puts Otuoma in a major quandary to effectively defend his seat against contestants he has never faced before and complete with virtually not support from sitting MPs.
So, who are the likely candidates to fight it out to try and dethrone a weak governor? With the ODM voters in Busia county in limbo, we are seeing a situation where Tesos and Luhyias crowned by clannism and the force and appeal of the personality factors may come into play to determine Otuoma’s fate.
Indeed, there are compelling possibilities that if the Samia,Banyala, Bakhayo and Marachi field a candidate or two to combat Otuoma, while their Teso counterparts produce one, the seat will go back to the Teso because of their higher population numbers and penchant for voting as a bloc if they produce one candidate.
Though Okiya Omtatah has threatened to contest against Otuoma during the coming general election, the senator comes off as a man who thrives on cheap publicity with no serious agenda that can be practically be put into practice to change the lives of the Busia voters from the current abject poverty ratings.
The others who have so far emerged as the 2027 election race gets closer are the Busia county assembly speaker Fred Odilo and Sidai, who is currently a top managerial executive with the Kenya Ports Authority.
It must not be forgotten that during the last general election, Odilo was one of Otuoma’s chief financiers and running mate but was changed at the last minute to be replaced by Arthur Odera.
While Odilo is projected to view in 2027, he has never been on any IEBC ballot paper before even in his own Nambale, constituency that is notorious for not voting in any legislator on first attempt. On the other hand, Sidai has declared his comeback by allegedly dishing out hard cash in funerals and harambees despite the betrayal and abandonment he meted out to his supporters above all county voters.
The engineer may have made a financial killing to contest the Busia gubernatorial seat in 2027, but he has serious and unending historical problem: The political divide of the Teso North and Teso South that was rampant during the race for Amagoro parliamentary seat before it was broken up, though it remains prevalent to date.
While Ojaamong from Okilidu in Teso South tasted the seat for 10 years, Sidai is extremely hard to sell in North Teso, which has the largest number of voters and is yet to produce any top personality in the county apart from the current the Deputy Governor Odera.
The only other personality from that region who may prove to be a tough nut to crack is career provincial administration operative Arthur Osiya - a high-level senior officer in the Office of the President with powerful roots and connections on the ground. On whether he will indeed vie is still unconfirmed. However, that is a man to watch because coming from Teso North already gives him a head start even against Sidai considering the facts already mentioned above.
Others may be wary because of his successful career in the provincial administration. However, we must not forget that Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya is a living example of former personalities from that profession joining politics and performing much better. There's also former Western provincial commissioner Francis Baya who went on to become a two-term MP at home in the Coast and assistant minister.
The most critical question is whether the county voters are going to elect governors who have already served in the National Assembly and Senate as Ojaamong, Otuoma and Omtata or elect a highly qualified and experienced professional.
The writer is a political science consultant