Kenya is expected to record a rise in sugar imports, as the effects of a ban on immature sugarcane processing kicks in, new findings have revealed.
This is however expected to ease as millers ramp up their production.
A report released by Fitch Solutions Company BMI and the United States Department of Agriculture shows that the country should expect production to decrease by 32.9 per cent year on year in 2023/24 down to 530,000 tonnes from 790,000 tonnes in 2022/23.
This has majorly been attributed to the ban on sugarcane harvesting that was implemented in July 2023.
The ban, implemented by the Kenyan Agriculture and Food Authority in July, only allowed factories to process sugar cane if they could prove that they had mature sugarcane.
“Despite the sharp decrease in production caused by the ban, we expect consumption to increase in 2023/24, from 1.15million tonnes to 1.18million tonnes in 2024/25, with a sharp increase in imports to make up for the domestic shortfall,” said report reads.
The ban was implemented as factories had been running out of cane to crush, in large part due to the below-average rainfall conditions that affected Kenya between 2020 and 2023 during the triple-dip La Niña.
Because of this, numerous sugar mills began resorting to crushing immature cane.
Sugar production by Kenyan millers fell by 40 per cent in 2023 - a four-year low- due to sugarcane shortages that put pressure on prices of the sweetener.
The total sugar requirement in the country is estimated at 1.1 million tonnes annually, made up of 930,000 tonnes of table sugar and 170,000 tonnes of industrial-use sugar.
The industry has the potential of producing over 1.47 million tonnes of sugar which would meet the domestic demand and provide a sustained surplus for export to the Comesa region which is generally a net importing region.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, industry inefficiencies have seen this capacity underutilized, with sugar processing facilities only around 56 percent.
Following the expiration of the ban in November 2023, BMI and USDA expect production to rebound significantly in 2024/25, increasing by 37.7 percent year on year up to 730,000 tonnes.
Consumption is also expected to increase by 3.2 per cent y-o-y, up to 1.23 million tonnes driven by growing demand in the bakery and hospitality sectors.
In particular, confectioneries and baked goods were identified by Kenya’s 2023 Economic Survey as the two fastest-growing subsectors of the country’s food processing industry.
“We expect initiatives by the Kenyan government aimed at boosting the productivity of the domestic sugar sector to continue in the medium-to-long term while flagging several structural factors weighing on this ambition,” reads the findings.
The survey also says that the growth in Kenya’s tourism sector will continue to create demand for sugar.
The production deficit in Kenya’s sugar sector is expected to peak at 658,000 tonnes before narrowing to 496,000 tonnes in 2024/25.
The findings flag Kenya’s reliance on safeguard measures from the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) to protect ‘Kenya's inefficient sugar sector’.
“In November 2023, the government secured a seventh extension of these measures, but there is a risk that future extensions may not be granted,” the report warns.
Additionally, it notes that due to the large production deficit, reducing dependence on imports will require substantial investment and time.
“Ending reliance on sugar imports remains a significant challenge that will necessitate long-term commitment and resources.”