Kenya will remain at the centre of the US’s foreign policy on Africa regardless of who wins the presidency, experts now say, with less than a week to the November 5 elections.
However, a policy shift on Africa is imminent with trade and investment, including ongoing talks between Kenya and the US for a strategic partnership, likely to either slow down or pushed to conclusion, depending on who takes over from President Joe Biden.
According to the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham)–Kenya, Africa is likely to see both continuities and shifts in US policy, driven by the different foreign policy agendas of the two major parties.
Under a Republican administration (Donald Trump as President), there might be a stronger emphasis on countering China’s influence and prioritising security partnerships across the continent, it said.
On the other hand, a Democratic administration with Kamala Harris as President, would likely continue promoting development aid, trade agreements, and human rights.
“Regardless of the outcome, bipartisan consensus remains on expanding economic cooperation and addressing mutual security concerns, especially in regions impacted by terrorism,” AmCham leadership said in Nairobi.
For Kenya, evolving US foreign policy will influence trade and investment opportunities with both parties recognising the growing importance of African economies and the need for increased US engagement in trade, infrastructure, and digital economy sectors.
“Kenya, as a strategic partner, will likely benefit from continued partnerships under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and future trade agreements that strengthen its economic position.
However, political dynamics in the US could determine the pace and focus of these initiatives,” AmCham said in a post 2024 US elections outlook report dubbed “What Africa can expect in trade, security, and diplomatic ties.”
Washington is expected to remain focused on balancing economic interests and security concerns, as both Democrats and Republicans acknowledge Africa’s strategic importance in the shifting geopolitical landscape with Kenya a key ally.
However, the parties’ differing approaches may influence how US policy is perceived by African and European partners.
A Harris presidency is however seen as an advantage for Kenya’s push to have a Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP) whose negotiations are at the tail end.
However, a Trump presidency could send back the talks to a fresh start, similar to what happened when Biden assumed power in 2021.
Past changes in administrations in both countries has had a significant impact on the process which was mooted in 2020 during former Presidents Donald Trump and Uhuru Kenyatta’s tenures.
US ambassador to Kenya Meg Whitman had indicated the two countries were keen to have a deal before a new administration.
According to the ambassador, a deal can still be sealed during the ‘lame duck’ period.
This is the period between after
elections (November) and handing
over of power to the elected President,
which is normally January 20 of the
year following the election.
