You should dress warmly and follow the advice of the health authorities as chilly weather conditions are expected to be at climax this month.
The Kenya Meteorological Department director Dr David Gikungu says the month of July marks the peak of the cold season, especially over the Highlands East of the Rift Valley and Nairobi county.
“The temperature forecast for July 2023 indicates that this zone, as well as parts of the Southeastern lowlands (parts of Kajiado), is expected to experience cool temperatures which are likely to be slightly warmer than the average for July. However, a few days may experience maximum temperatures below 180C and minimum temperatures below 100C,” Gikungu said in a forecast released on June 29.
Gikungu said most of the northern sector is likely to experience high temperatures except over Marsabit and parts of Isiolo counties where temperatures are expected to be moderate.
“The rest of the country is likely to experience moderate temperatures between 20 to 30 degrees Celsius. These temperatures are expected to be warmer than the July LTM (long-term mean).”
He said due to the expected cool and chilly conditions, cases of respiratory diseases such as asthma, pneumonia, flu, and the common cold are likely to increase in areas such as Nairobi, the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, parts of the Central and South Rift Valley, and parts of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley.
“To avoid contracting diseases, it is advisable to dress warmly and to follow the advice of the health huthorities. They are also advised not to use charcoal jikos in poorly ventilated houses because they emit carbon monoxide gas, which can kill if inhaled,” Gikungu said.
The director said several parts of the country will remain dry for the next three months.
However, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, and Central and parts of the South Rift Valley are expected to receive rainfall that is likely to be below the July to September long-term mean.
Gikungu said the Highlands East of the Rift Valley; including Nairobi County and parts of the Southeastern lowlands are expected to experience cool and cloudy conditions in July and August and the first half of September.
“The rest of the country is expected to remain generally sunny and dry. Temperatures are expected to be warmer than usual over the whole country,” he said.
The weather forecast for July 2023 is based on the regression of Sea Surface Temperatures, SST gradients and the expected evolution of global SST patterns as well as upper air circulation patterns over western Kenya and the coastal region.
The forecast shows that near to below-average rainfall is expected over the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Central Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, and South Rift Valley while areas over Northwest are likely to experience below-average rainfall.
The coastal strip is likely to receive near-average rainfall.
The forecast shows that Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Baringo, West Pokot, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Laikipia, Nakuru, Narok, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma and Busia will receive rains this month.
“The expected total rainfall amount is likely to be near to below the long-term average amounts for July,” Gikungu said.
Turkana and Samburu counties will mainly be sunny and dry.
However, occasional rainfall is expected over a few areas, especially those bordering Uganda and South Sudan.
The expected total rainfall amount is likely in the two counties is likely to be below the long-term average amounts for July.
Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, and Kwale are expected to receive occasional rainfall during the month. The expected total rainfall amount is likely to be near the long-term average for July.
Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, and Nairobi counties will this month experience cool and cloudy conditions with occasional morning light rains.
During the month, occasional afternoon showers are likely to occur over a few areas.
Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Taita Taveta and Kajiado, Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo counties are likely to remain generally sunny and dry.
Occasional cool and cloudy conditions are however likely to occur over some counties in the Southeastern lowlands especially those bordering the Highlands East of the Rift Valley and Nairobi county as well as the high-altitude areas of Marsabit county.
