• The estimated production of wheat in Kenya is 365,600 MT or 4.05 million 90Kg bags.
• Annual wheat consumption is 1,658,000 MT or 18.4 million (90kg) bags, the gap is filled by imports.
Image: FILE
Fungal wheat blast disease could reduce global wheat production by 13 per cent, a new study has shown.
The study by an international team of researchers says climate change poses a threat to yields and food security worldwide, with plant diseases as one of the main risks.
The researchers were led by Prof Senthold Asseng from the Technical University of Munich.
They said further spread of the fungal disease wheat blast could reduce global wheat production by 13 per cent until 2050.
The report showed that the result is dramatic for global food security, as wheat is an essential food crop with a global cultivation area of 222 million hectares (548,573,946 acres) and a harvest volume of 779 million tonnes.
According to the wheat value chain survey report by the Agriculture and Food Authority, wheat is the second most important cereal in Kenya after maize.
The subsector employs more than 500,000 people and contributes Sh20 billion to GDP.
The average area under wheat is 146,800 Hactares with an estimated production of 365,600 tonnes (4.05 million 90 Kg bags).
The estimated wheat annual consumption is 1,658,000 tonnes (18.4 million (90 kg) bags)and this gap is filled by imports.
The crop is grown mainly in Narok, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, Laikipia, Meru, Nyandarua and Nyeri counties.
“Like all plant species, it is also struggling with diseases that are spreading more rapidly compared to a few years ago because of climate change. One of these is wheat blast,” the report showed.
The researchers said up to 75 per cent of the area under wheat cultivation in Africa and South America could be at risk in the future.
According to the predictions, wheat blast fungus is also penetrating countries that were previously untouched.
These include, Kenya, Uruguay, Central America, the Southeastern USA, India and Eastern Australia.
Last year, the country was expecting to harvest 1.2 million bags of wheat.
Cereal Growers Association CEO Antony Kioko said there has been a drop in acreage over the years.
He attributed this to many factors including farmers dropping out of wheat farming because prices went down.
“Some people gave up on wheat farming due to poor prices and increased cost of production. This normally eats into the margins of the farmers and those who cannot sustain it drop out,” Kioko said.
The report said breeding resistant wheat varieties is an important strategy against future yield losses.
The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre in collaboration with National Agricultural Research Systems partners has released several wheat blast-resistant varieties which have been helpful in mitigating the effect of wheat blast.
Another study published in 2021 the science journal Environmental Research Letters predicted average declines in wheat yields of 15 per cent in Africa and 16 per cent in South Asian countries by mid-century.
The study was titled, Climate impact and adaptation to heat and drought stress of regional and global wheat production.
The research further showed that climate change with the most negative impacts, will occur in Africa and South Asia.
“Studies have already shown that wheat yields fell by 5.5 per cent during 1980-2010, due to rising global temperatures,” said Diego Pequeno, wheat crop modeler at CIMMYT.
“We chose several models to simulate climate change impacts and also simulated wheat varieties that featured increased heat tolerance, early vigor against late season drought and late flowering to ensure normal biomass accumulation."
"Finally, we simulated use of additional nitrogen fertiliser to maximise the expression of these adaptive traits," he said.