Maize production will drop due to exceptionally heavy long rains that washed away some crops and soil nutrients.
Timothy Njagi, a senior researcher from Tegemeo Institute, said the long rains started early in some parts of the county and caused leaching and loss of soil nutrients for healthy growth.
The heavy rains have also caused flooding of about 10,000 acres.
"The rains have been good and farmers who planted early around February could have a good harvest but those who planted late may have their crops affected by too much rain," Njagi told the Star on Tuesday.
He said this year's maize production could be lower than the 2019 harvest of 35 million bags. Maize and rice crops also have been damaged by flooding.
Agriculture PS Hamadi Boga said the ministry is yet to collect data.
“Projections for this year’s maize harvest can only be done once data has been collected and this is yet to happen due to many factors including the Covid-19 pandemic,” he said.
In 2019, the government projected a harvest of 38 million bags but post-harvest losses amounted to nearly 30 per cent because farmers were unable to dry maize due to the long 'short' rains.
Boga said national monthly consumption is about four million bags both for maize meal and animal feed.
National annual consumption is 52 million bags against the annual production of 40 to 45 million bags, which drops to fewer than 40 million bags in some years.
Data collected from 14 counties in April showed farmers hold a surplus maize stock of 10.1 million, 90kg bags.
Trans Nzoia has a surplus of 3.2 million bags, having an annual production of 4.8 million bags against the consumption of 990,000 bags.
Uasin Gishu produces 3.6 million bags against the consumption of 1.2 million bags. It currently has a surplus of two million bags. Nakuru has an annual production of 2.4 million bags against the consumption of 2.1 million bags. The surplus is only 33,368 bags.
Annual production in Kakamega county is 2.9 million bags while consumption is 1.9 million bags, a surplus of 664,895 bags. Bungoma produces 3.5 million bags and consumes 1.7 million bags; the surplus is 1.4 million bags.
The government has allowed millers to import four million bags for white maize and animal feed. Njagi said that will be enough until the South Rift and Western Kenya maize harvest starts to arrive in the market in July
(Edited by V. Graham)