The Covid-19 impact on economies and food systems will significantly drive up the numbers of hungry food-insecure people in East Africa.
That's the not-unsurprising findingt countries in the region.
Workneh Gebeyehu, IGAD executive secretary, also said the direct and indirect impacts of the pandemic could increase conflicts over resources in the region already prone to conflict.
His statement was released on Wednesday.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network estimates the number of acutely food-insecure people in the region could reach 28.1 to 35 million from the current 27.6 million.
The analysis further says most food-insecure people are expected to remain in rural areas, though the pandemic will likely hit poor urban households hardest.
The World Health Organization says all eight IGAD member states (Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda) had reported Covid-19 cases by May. The number has grown at a relatively modest case.
The first cases were reported in Ethiopia in mid-March.
WHO has given various possible explanations for the relatively low numbers in the region, including differences in population pyramids, climate, level of globalisation, testing rates and the degree and timing of preventive measures.
The abrupt loss of livelihoods following lockdowns and restricted movement has caused a severe deterioration in household incomes and purchasing power.
"As many people rely on daily physical labour as their only productive asset and have very limited savings, lockdowns will quickly drive them into extreme poverty. They have very limited opportunities to cover minimum food requirements of all household members," the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) April report reads.
The households already facing the highest levels of vulnerability will be hit the hardest, as they have limited coping capacity.
The World Bank estimates the global increase in people being pushed into extreme poverty in the coming months due to Covid-19 ranges from 84 million to 132 million.
“A disproportionally high share of these are expected to come from the IGAD region due to the high dependency on labour-intensive and informal sectors combined with many people already close to extreme poverty," the Bank says.
This is because the region is highly dependent on remittances bur foreign remittances have slowed due to the pandemic.
IFPRI says high levels of malnutrition in East Africa are expected to increase as lower income leads to less nutritious diets.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization says despite favourable climate forecasts for regional harvests, Covid-19 could decrease food availability if restrictions prevent people from travelling from urban areas to their farms during the planting season.
If the supply chain for agricultural inputs is disrupted, delayed or if prices increase, farmers will see their yields drop.
Although the global cereal market is adequate and not expected to face shortages during the Covid-19 shock, the nominal purchase prices for imported foods on local markets are likely to rise, as most countries are net importers of cereals, the UN food agencies says.
(Edited by V. Graham)