Former powerful State House Comptroller during the Nyayo era Franklin Bett has said the 'deep state' is real and likely to vanquish DP William Ruto.
In an exclusive interview with the Star, Bett described the formidable influence of the 'deep state', also known as 'the system', in presidential succession. It extends from high in the government down to assistant chiefs at the grassroots, he said.
The career public servant was among President Daniel Moi's few trusted advisers.
The DP has dismissed the existence of the 'deep state' as a conspiracy theory as he does battles with his boss, President Uhuru Kenyatta, over 2022 State House succession.
While a bullish Ruto has declared he has "God and millions of Kenyans" pushing for his victory, Bett said Ruto's ambitions could go up in smoke.
The former Cabinet Minister in the Grand Coalition government of President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga said Ruto has not built enough anti-establishment momentum to defeat the 'deep state'.
Bett said today's pro-Ruto sentiment falls far short of the massive public resentment against Moi's 24-year-long stranglehold on power in the 2002 presidential contest.
He said in the 2002 Narc wave, President Moi and 'the system' heavily backed Uhuru as the Kanu presidential candidate. But public anger over economic and political frustrations overpowered the machine.
“The resentment was so intense that no matter the deep state, the country was mobilising towards Narc. ...
"This time, are the people sufficiently angered by the Uhuru administration that they are able to march forward? I think not," Bett said.
He went on, "If you look at the Narc-Kanu contest and recall the whole country was singing away from Kanu, and if you ask me if this is the same scenario, my answer is 'no'."
This was the first time that the ex-state operative and 'deep state' insider revealed the working of 'the system' and exposed its tentacles inside and outside government.
The former Bureti MP said that the 'deep state' extends widely within and outside of government. It can pull off what might seem like miracles and deliver a presidential victory to its preferred candidate.
“The deep state is dangerous to play with, it has the machinery of state that it can put into play in defence of what it stands for,” Bett said.
The national government is part of the 'deep state', he said.
“It (the 'deep state') will use its networks that run from the county commissioner all the way to the assistant chief at the sublocation level to mobilise the public in their direct interest,” Bett said.
The 'deep state', he said, is the mechanism that is government and brings together the government of the day and its supporters who have great influence in government.
A few days ago, Francis Kimemia, former Public Service head and Cabinet Secretary, admitted the 'deep state' existed and always influenced election outcomes, more so presidential polls.
The Nyandarua governor, who is privy to top state secrets having served under Kibaki, argued that elections in any country have a lot of interests and the 'deep state' plays a key role in determining outcomes.
In a wide-ranging interview with the Star on Thursday, Bett concurred with Kimemia the 'deep state' can influence presidential elections.
He said that with handsome pay, it can procure individuals and other functionaries at strategic election processing points to be complicit in the big scheme.
Bett cited a 'hitch' in the transmission of 2017 presidential election results. The transmission system of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission broke down. The hitch triggered claims of poll rigging.
“The transmission of results system can be compromised, as in 2017 the system was hacked and it was off network for over five hours. The results came out differently thereafter," he said.
ODM presidential candidate Raila Odinga’s agents protested against the delays and alleged the results were being manipulated in favour of Uhuru's reelection.
The former Roads Cabinet Minister, in a tell-all interview with Star Senior Political Writer James Mbaka, describes the machinations of the 'deep state'. Here are excerpts:.
What is the 'deep state/system'? Do what extent does it influence presidential succession? Can it influence presidential election results or tilt the outcome in any way it wishes?
The deep state actually is the mechanism that is government, together with supporters of government with great influence in government. For instance, people who are not employees of government like the late Kihika Kimani but are small allies of government.
The government of the day itself also forms the deep state. It controls the interests of the state and certain allies of the state. The deep state is dangerous to play with. It has the machinery of state that it can put into play in defence of what the deep state stands for.
That may include the police, the CID, the National Intelligence Service and the entire Public Service. It is true the deep state can influence. It will use its network and that runs from the county commissioner all the way [down] to the assistant chief. That is the network it can use to mobilise the public in their direction.
It can use its communication to propagate propaganda. Social media nowadays tends to counter the traditional formal communication system of the deep state. In fact, social media can counter that and reduce the deep state's influence. But the system has the financial muscle and it can procure individuals who are in social media and use its bloggers to enhance their usual machinery.
On presidential elections, social media can kill the hopes of the deep state sometimes but the deep state counters that through investments in bloggers. The deeps state can procure individuals who can be complicit whereby they can get commissions to deal with the situation.
The transmission of results system can be compromised, like in 2017 the system was hacked and it was off network for over five hours. And results came out differently after that. The deep state can procure individuals who are conversant in that area and that can alter the election.
The 2022 presidential race is shaping up as a two-horse race between ODM boss Raila Odinga and DP William Ruto. What would be the President’s role in influencing who succeeds him? Must the President step up and openly campaign for his preferred choice as successor?
This depends on how each candidate drives their campaign. It also depends on public outcry for change. I am saying that because, take for example Narc. The deep state then was for one Uhuru Kenyatta but the discontent and the frustration by the population was so intense that no matter what the deep state [wanted], the country was mobilising towards Narc.
Even in this election, are the people adequately angered by the Uhuru administration that they can be able to march? It looks (as though)it is not. If you look at the situation of Narc and Kanu, the whole country was singing away from Kanu.
Are we facing the same scenario at the moment? My answer is NO. Then Uhuru’s Influence can work. On the issue of power, that is a huge advantage for him. For instance, he has started reducing the cost of power and that was what the public was crying about.
There is no topic in the public [ powerful] enough to [use to] run against Uhuru. Depending on how Raila runs his game, it would work for him and Uhuru will be in the background.
I would advise Uhuru not to publicly campaign for Raila. It is human nature that when you see one being attacked, then sympathy tends to rise up in favour of Ruto. Moi came out openly and Uhuru lost badly. Assuming he didn’t come out, Uhuru would have lost but by a low margin.
Do you believe Ruto’s fortunes in Mt Kenya face any threat from Raila? Has Raila finally climbed the mountain to its peak? What can he do to consolidate his support there?
Ruto’s fortunes in Mt Kenya are under threat. If there is a community in this country that is serving in politics and can go in unison, it is the Kikuyu people. Look at what Raila is doing now. He is pushing out snippets that are in social media and mainstream papers.
They appear to me that they are coming from a written and engraved [statement] somewhere. By the time Ruto comes to raise those [questions], Raila would have already hit the market.
I see 2007 being rekindled and it is unfortunate though. It would be a serious reminder from the past. The Kiambaa church issues are resurfacing and that will create animosity against Ruto.
The Mt Kenya leadership is anti-Ruto. These leaders who are anti-Ruto say they were rigged out by Ruto in the Jubilee nominations. They also have their networks and are saying it is time to pay back Ruto.
It is too early to call Mt Kenya for Raila or Ruto. The Mount Kenya Foundation tycoons can tilt the scales against Ruto. They will bankroll their preferred presidential candidate and things will get rough for Ruto.
Do you believe Ruto’s friendship with Uhuru since 2013 was genuine? When did the rain start beating them? What is Ruto’s biggest mistake? Is their relationship irrevocably broken?
I would blame their handlers on both sides. I will also blame the two principals who listened too much to what their handlers were saying. When their allies were looking for their stake, they would clash in the field. That led to the principals clashing as well.
Those were the things that played to the gallery of the two men. I think there is no window for reconciliation. It has gotten to a point of no return ahead of 2022. I just admired Ruto when he said he was ready for the reconciliation.
The quarrelling between Raila and Ruto has been sustained for over 10 years. If what is between Raila and Ruto has been sustained for this long, the problem between Uhuru and Ruto will stay here for long.
Did Kenyans made a mistake in 2010 by enacting a Constitution providing for a joint presidential ticket? Should the Constitution be amended to provide for a deputy president appointed by the President to cure the squabbles?
Kenyans did not make any mistake. The running mate should not outshine the boss. That is the basic principle all over the world. This is not as in the Grand Coalition government when the government was shared on a 50-50 basis. That was different.
The Constitution is now clear that the DP is subservient to the President and shall work under the direction of the President. Looking at Ruto’s statements, they are in the direction of trying to outshine his boss.
He has said that in the first term things worked and in the second term, when he was sidelined, time has been wasted. Uhuru is a human being and has feelings like any other.
Do you anticipate a peaceful transition? What would be the President’s role in guaranteeing a peaceful handover of power?
My prayer is that the transition is peaceful. But I would not close my mind to a possible nasty situation. That nasty situation can arise when people rekindle the idea of Uhuru saying ‘yangu kumi na Ruto kumi.’ On that basis, a situation will go the same way Moi went. After the end of the term, Uhuru should hand over with an appeal for peace.
Let us not play with the Constitution. That is our supreme law. I will not advise Uhuru to skip the inauguration of his successor. If Ruto wins clean, it is incumbent upon Uhuru to hand over power to him. The same case if Raila wins. Either way, the protagonists must also recognise the winner and the loser must concede for the sake f peace and security.
What is the influence of the international community in presidential elections in Kenya?
The international community has a lot of influence depending on what international networks the presidential candidates have. If I was to compare Raila and Ruto, Raila has some influence in the international community because of his persistent fight against corruption and for good governance.
If you were look at how much Ruto has fought corruption, he doesn’t compare with Raila. The international world has a lot of influence in elections. You will have to balance their interests a lot more.
(Edited by V. Graham)