Deputy President William Ruto has dislodged ODM leader Raila Odinga in key bases that have traditionally voted for the opposition in previous elections, a new survey suggests.
In what appears to be shifting ground ahead of the 2022 vote, Ruto, who has been traversing the country popularising his hustler narrative, is in a commanding lead in six out of the nine regions likely to influence who succeeds President Uhuru Kenyatta.
Interestingly, the opinion poll released on Friday gave the DP Coast, Nairobi and Western regions, areas that have traditionally voted for the former Prime Minister.
According to Tifa poll results, Ruto is ahead of Raila on the Coast with a 38 per cent rating against Raila’s 26 per cent.
The DP has also overtaken the ODM leader in Western where he is now enjoying a 26 per cent lead against Raila’s 21 per cent.
In Nairobi, the survey indicates an increasingly shifting ground towards the DP who has 32 per cent against Raila’s 27 per cent.
“Support for the most popular potential candidates is less concentrated in regional terms for both William Ruto and Raila Odinga than it is for any other,” the report states.
However, either of the candidates can still make a catch-up as the findings disclosed quite a large number of voters in the regions have not yet made up their minds on their preferred presidential candidates.
The western region leads with the highest number of undecided voters at 24 per cent.
Nairobi, Mt Kenya and Coast come second at 20 per cent each, followed by Lower Eastern and Nyanza both having 17 per cent of voters yet to make up their minds.
The pollster gives Ruto a clear win in Central Rift (57 per cent), Lower Eastern (35 per cent) and Mt Kenya (53 per cent).
Raila, who has yet to declare his candidature, bags Nyanza, Northern Kenya and South Rift if an election was held at the time of the survey.
The findings also indicate a rise in Raila’s support at a time when Ruto is registering a marginal decline in popularity.
According to the poll, the opposition chief is the biggest beneficiary of the political events in the last five months, cutting significantly Ruto’s popularity in recent months.
In the last five months – June 21 to November 21 – Raila moved from an eight percent popularity rating to 23 per cent, denoting a 15 per cent increase in support.
The DP, on the other hand, dropped one percentage point during the five-month period. He, however, still leads the ODM leader in case an election is held today.
“TIFA has taken note of the fact that since our last such survey in June 2021, a number of events have occurred relating to several of these issues and which, therefore, have likely affected public opinion,” the pollster noted.
In June, the DP had 39 per cent approval rating, a figure that has now dropped by one per cent.
Ruto and Raila have in recent months escalated their vote-hunting expeditions, holding huge rallies across the country.
Unlike Ruto who has indicated he will be in the race to succeed retiring President Kenyatta, the ODM boss will December 9 announce whether he will enter the fray.
The Tifa-sponsored survey was carried out between November 7 and 13 and has +/-2.51 margin of error.
A total of 1,519 respondents were interviewed from Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern Kenya, Nyanza, South Rift, Western regions.
A similar poll sponsored by Radio Africa Group Limited also shows former Prime Minister narrowed the gap between him and Ruto in the 2022 presidential contest.
The Star reported on Friday that Raila has more than doubled his support since July from 14.2 per cent to 28.6 per cent.
Meanwhile, Ruto's support climbed from 42.7 per cent to 45.6 per cent, though still short of the simple majority needed to win the presidential contest in the first round.
The Tifa report also indicates that it is becoming clearer that Raila is perceived by the majority of Kenyans as the preferred successor by President Kenyatta.
A record 48 per cent of those polled said Uhuru has a soft spot for Raila as the person to take over from him when he retires. In June, only 32 per cent believed Uhuru had Raila in mind for the top job.
During the same period, some 10 per cent of the respondents still believed Uhuru would ditch Raila and support Ruto. The figure has shrunk by one per cent to nine per cent as of November 11.
“More than five times as many Kenyans assume that Uhuru prefers Raila to Ruto as his successor (48 per cent vs. nine per cent),” the report says.
On party’s popularity, Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) enjoys massive support across the country over established parties like ODM and Jubilee.
UDA's popularity is greater than that of ODM and Jubilee combined. A record 30 per cent of those polled mentioned UDA as the party of choice compared to ODM's 16 per cent and Jubilee's five percent.
“As of now, no political party or alliance/coalition attracts the support of more than just under one-third of Kenyans, with nearly half (40 per cent) saying they 'feel close to' or 'support' no such entity,” the pollster stated.