ODM leader Raila Odinga is crafting an elaborate strategy to guarantee foolproof 2022 nominations and forestall incessant chaos that have historically ruined the party's image.
For the first time, the ODM boss has revealed the party will opt for scientific surveys to assess the popularity of aspirants before issuing direct tickets to top-ranked hopefuls.
The party will shelve competitive nominations in its strongholds across the country and embrace consensus in some regions to avert sibling rivalry that could hurt its 2022 prospects.
Peaceful nominations in the party's strongholds would ensure much of the needed resources are directed to strategic areas of supporting logistics in the national campaigns.
Raila said the party has the power to give "direct nominations" to beat the tight Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission timelines for the 2022 polls
"If IEBC’s timelines are fast approaching the party can give direct nomination,” said Raila at Cotu secretary general Francis Atwoli’s Bofa home in Kilifi county.
“How do we do it? The party will commission an opinion poll. From the poll, we get to know who is more popular in an area then we use the result to settle on the best candidate.”
The ODM boss spoke last week in a video recorded while addressing some party stalwarts and other regional leaders in Kilifi.
The party has previously spent massive resources to conduct primaries but lack of enough manpower, security capacity and funds have hindered fair play.
On Sunday, ODM national treasurer Timothy Bosire said the party will deploy at least four methods including opinion polls to settle on formidable candidates.
"Opinion polls is just one of them, but there is no single method that will capture the expectations of members, we shall blend other methods for fairness," Bosire said.
The Star established that while opinion polls would apply in the party's strongholds, other methods like use of consensus, delegates and universal suffrage would be employed in other regions.
"We want to be very frugal in the electioneering and administrative programmes. We are going out of our way to capture the expectations of party members," Bosire said.
The battle for ODM tickets in its bastions is usually a do-or-die fight as having secured a party certificate is considered a near-guarantee of election victory.
However, the party's fortunes have often been dimmed by endless chaos, massive violence and sometimes death of clashing members.
To end the culture of chaos and shrug away the violence tag, Raila is now rooting for direct tickets to popular candidates identified after data-backed survey.
That is something we have talked about. There is an ongoing survey everywhere to gauge which candidate is popular whether in ODM or out of the party for most of the seats in the country
Raila disclosed the party will commission at least two opinion polls to determine the popularity of its aspirants months to the nominations deadlines.
“The party will commission opinion polls, we will do one soon then another one later (towards election),” he said.
Raila's remarks, the Star has established, form part of a major policy shift at Orange House as the party seeks to restore sanity and credibility in its nomination process.
The new strategy, it has emerged, is supposed to ensure that politicians with questionable party loyalty do not ride behind their millions of shillings to buy their way.
The survey will also guarantee that only candidates established to be popular through a scientific process are handed party tickets.
This would also bloc moles from penetrating the Orange party.
The party is also expected to leverage on tight IEBC nominations timeliness to ensure nominations losers do not defect to run in other parties or as independents.
According to the IEBC timeliness, political parties have from April 16-May 22 next year to conduct nominations and sort out arising disputes .
Persons seeking to run as independents are expected to resign from political parties by May 9, three months to the polls.
This means that ODM will be conducting nominations long after the defections window would have closed on May 9, 2022.
Previously, ODM nomination losers - some popular but rigged out-have been forced to switch to run as independents the last minute, giving party candidates a run for their money.
Some independents, or those who went to other parties, managed to clinch victory, denying ODM a clean sweep for MPs in its strongholds of Nyanza, Coast and Western.
Raila's announcement signalled that the Orange party will go the consensus way as opposed to the universal suffrage method to nominate flag bearers.
ODM chairman John Mbadi confirmed that consensus is being considered at highest echelons of the party, affirming Raila's pronouncement.
The Suba South MP said the move will deflate tensions that mar party primaries and ensure the outfit concentrates its energy in delivering a Raila presidency.
“That is something we have talked about. There is an ongoing survey everywhere to gauge which candidate is popular whether in ODM or out of the party for most of the seats in the country,” Mbadi said on phone.
If possible, the party can call the people contesting the gubernatorial race for a dialogue before they agree on one of them to get the nomination ticket
The National Assembly Minority Leader said the survey is being done covertly by third parties across the country and a series of similar exercises have been lined up for early next year.
“Based on that, we will be able to engage aspirants in our party and discuss the possibility of reducing unnecessary competition.”
Mbadi said the party will engage aspirants into backing the popular candidate as the best among equals.
“These are party primaries and should not be cutthroat competition. Members should know we are just picking the first among equals,” he explained.
The Orange party is expected to hold party primaries in April next year for various electoral units where it will field candidates.
The party has been pushing for consensus to avert chaos and fallouts that usually characterise contested primaries and leave the party bleeding.
In the past party primaries, there have been claims that certificates have often been issued to the highest bidders to the detriment of strong and popular candidates.
The secretariat and the elections board have been fingered in past probes for having engineered chaos or awarded certificates to losers in exchange for favours.
Last month, Raila's wife Ida also waded into the nominations debate, asking the party to consider negotiated party nominations ahead of the 2022 polls.
Ida spoke at a fundraiser organised by Basic Education PS Julius Jwan at Sing’enge Primary School in Ndhiwa constituency.
She urged ODM to pick candidates if the primaries could lead to violence.
“If possible, the party can call the people contesting the gubernatorial race for a dialogue before they agree on one of them to get the nomination ticket,” Ida said.
The mode of picking 2022 aspirants has triggered heat in ODM with bigwigs clashing over various proposals on how to settle on candidates who will fly the party flag on elective seats.
The situation is worse in the party strongholds, where those seen as being close to Raila are said to be alleging they will get direct tickets.
According to ODM’s constitution, the party has four methods of selecting a candidate for every political seat.
The party can use universal suffrage, where registered party members vote to elect a candidate or the party can also go for a delegates system where delegates meet to determine who flies the party’s flag.
The constitution also gives the party powers to give a direct ticket to a candidate as well allowing aspirants who have expressed interest in a political seat to meet and agree through consensus on who among them should carry the party’s flag.
Edited by Henry Makori