The latest opinion poll from the Radio Africa Group shows that Deputy President William Ruto is maintaining his lead in the presidential race but former Prime Minister Raila Odinga is starting to catch up.
According to the poll, 46.1 percent of registered voters say they will vote for Ruto in the presidential election on August 9 while 35.1 percent say they will vote for Raila Odinga. At this stage, Ruto's lead will not be sufficient for him to win on the first round with a simple majority (50 percent plus one vote).
In November, a Radio Africa poll showed that 45.6 percent of voters would vote for Ruto compared to 28.6 percent for Raila. In July, 42.7 percent said they would vote for Ruto and 14.2 percent for Raila.
In parallel, since July, the number of undecided voters has fallen from 14.8 percent to 8.6 percent.
The other potential presidential candidates appear to be also-rans according to the opinion poll. Musalia Mudavadi has 2.4percent, Kalonzo Musyoka 1.4 percent, Gideon Moi 0.8 percent, Alfred Mutua 0.8 percent, and all others 0.9 percent. Another 2.7 percent said they would refuse to vote and 1.1 percent refused to answer.
The poll of 3,152 respondents was conducted by CATI (computer aided telephone interview) between January 5 and 15. The margin of error is plus or minus 1.75 percent with a 95 percent confidence level. Age and education demographics were skewed to match the population breakdown.
The poll was financed and carried out by the Radio Africa research department and will be repeated every month until August.
A massive 96 percent of respondents said they were registered voters and 94 percent said they will "definitely" or "probably" vote in August. Another 83 percent said they "always" or "nearly always" vote while 96 percent said they had voted before.
The regional breakdown of support for presidential candidates shows how important it is for Ruto to hold on to his present lead in Central Kenya.
Presently Ruto has 59.8 percent support in Central Kenya, more than any other part of the country including Rift Valley where he has 55.7 percent backing in North Rift and 59.4 percent in South Rift. Ruto is weakest in Nyanza where he has 21.1 percent support.
By contrast Raila is strongest in Nyanza where he has 66.1 percent support. His next best region is Coast where he has 42.3 percent and Western with 40.2 percent, compared to 38.7 and 40.1 percent for Ruto in those same regions respectively.
Raila is weakest in Central where has 25.1 percent support and Upper Eastern with 25.6 percent compared to Ruto's 55.8 percent support.
In Nairobi, Ruto has 44.8 percent support and Raila 35.7 percent. In South Rift and North Rift respectively, Raila has 26.9 percent backing and 22.9 percent.
For Raila to overtake Ruto therefore, he will need to slash Ruto's lead where it is greatest, namely in Central, Rift Valley and Upper Eastern.
When asked who they think will win, regardless of how they will vote, 49.3 percent of respondents said Ruto and 34.3 percent said Raila.
On political parties, 34 percent of respondents said they were closest to the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and 26 percent said ODM. Only 9 percent said Jubilee while 25 percent said they had no party affiliation.
On who would make the best President for Kenya, 47.1 percent said Ruto and 34.5 percent said Raila.
Tomorrow's Star will carry the breakdown of preferred running mates and the major issues on the minds of voters, according to this latest opinion poll.