The stage is set for a bruising battle within ODM leader Raila Odinga's political mansion after the Azimio coalition abandoned joint primaries.
This means more than 15 political parties supporting Raila's presidential bid will conduct their own primaries and face off in the August 9 general election.
It's feared the free-for-all approach could see Azimio La Umoja-affiliated candidates split the votes and give an easy ride to Deputy President William Ruto's Kenya Kwanza Alliance.
However, its proponents say joint primaries would trigger acrimony and hostility leading to voter apathy.
Raila on Wednesday gave his supporters a free hand to elect leaders from the numerous political outfits within the Azimio coalition. There are many rooms in Baba's house.
To demonstrate his change of heart, the ODM chief paraded all Wajir aspirants under Azimio parties and asked supporters to give them equal chances.
"We are in Azimio, which has many political parties. You will have a free hand to choose your leaders from all the Azimio parties,” Raila said.
“We want all leaders to be elected under the Azimio party; we don’t want a mix-and-match.”
Raila had initially supported a single Azimio candidate for political positions across the country.
The change is seen as a tactical move to avert mass defection from disgruntled aspirants aggrieved by the joint primaries.
On Wednesday, ODM suffered a setback after Kakamega Deputy Governor Philip Kutima and nominated Senator Naomi Shiyonga decamped to DAP-K.
Former Kajiado Governor David Nkedienye also decamped from ODM to Jubilee.
Both DAP-K and Jubilee are Azimio affiliates supporting Raila for president.
A senior ODM official intimated to the Star that a decision had been reached that all parties within the nascent coalition would field their own candidates.
The Star has established the agreement became obvious after it was impossible for the two handshake partners — Raila and President Uhuru Kenyatta — to prevail upon their allies who have locked horns for seats to drop their bid and support their rival.
“We have already agreed that all parties will be fielding candidates. It has been decided that this will benefit the presidential candidate because everyone’s supporters will show up to vote,” a source told the Star.
Democratic Action Party of Kenya deputy party leader Ayub Savula confirmed the agreement.
He said it is the only way to ensure fairness to aspirants and parties within the coalition.
“We have negotiated already and we have agreed that every party will field their own candidates,” the Lugari MP said on the phone.
ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna also backed the proposal, dismissing claims it could split the Azimio vote bloc and favour the rival Kenya Kwanza of DP Ruto.
Every party that is going to field candidates in the country is Azimio. It is just about selecting which Azimio party candidate to vote for
Opponents of the new method argue it could lead to a repeat of the 2017 mistakes that caused Nasa to lose seats in its traditional strongholds to Jubilee. Nasa had split its votes amongst its candidates.
For instance, in Lang’ata constituency, Jubilee's Nixon Korir won after garnering 41,086 votes, beating ODM's Oscar Omoke who got 39,593 votes. Wiper Party's Judith Sijeny came third with 5,331 votes.
Sifuna, who is eyeing Nairobi Senate seat, said the dynamics of the 2022 elections are different. The latest polls give confidence that Raila will still manage to garner more seats under the new model.
“Every party that is going to field candidates in the country is Azimio. It is just about selecting which Azimio party candidate to vote for,” Sifuna said on the phone.
“I don’t think so [opponents getting advantage]. We know the whole country is Azimio, so the Azimio candidates will win, there is no opportunity for UDA, even if we all field candidates.”
Savula, the DAP-K deputy party leader, said Azimio’s priority is to deliver Raila the presidency while partner parties will battle for the remaining seats.
“What is most important is forming government and our priority is the presidency. The rest, let the people battle it out and let the best win," Savula said.
Azimio parties are engaged in fierce sibling rivalries in the coalition’s strongholds, threatening the thread of unity holding the formation together.
Raila has been having a headache in Western, Nairobi, Mombasa and Kajiado where most of his allies have expressed interests in the same seats.
In Nairobi, Raila’s ODM is fronting Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi, while Uhuru’s Jubilee is pushing the former Kenya National Chamber of Commerce and Industry boss Richard Ngatia.
Sifuna and nominated MP Maina Kamanda have also locked horns for the Nairobi Senate seat.
The Azimio rivalry is worse in Western Kenya where Chungwa House is accusing the new entrant, DAP-K, of unnecessary friendly fire.
Kutima served as ODM Kakamega branch chairman and is seeking to succeed Governor Wycliffe Oparanya.
The defectors claimed their decision was informed by intelligence that Chungwa House already had a list of favourite candidates for the party’s tickets.
The change of heart by Raila comes days after it emerged that aggrieved aspirants have a 10-day window after primaries to resign and contest as independents.
This is seen as a tactical way of containing the mass walkouts if the coalition were to go for joint polls.
With each party sponsoring its candidates under the coalition, Raila has managed to avert a likely haemorrhage that would occur in case joint party primaries are bungled, as in the past.
It is also a major win for small parties that had expressed reservations on contesting in joint primaries against more established partners.
(Edited by V. Graham)
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