Why Uhuru is Ruto’s August headache

On February 8, Deputy President William Ruto dared President Uhuru Kenyatta to a political duel, saying he was ready to face “his [Kenyatta's] project” Raila Odinga in the August 9 polls.

"They are obsessed with managing their succession but I want to tell them we are ready for that contest, my friends, Bring it on. Tuko tayari kabisa,"Ruto told a rally in Kakamega.

This was but one of the many instances when Ruto had sneered at his boss, saying he has “God and the people” to back what he has often called his unstoppable State House bid.

However, barely 40 days after the Kakamega declaration, the DP is now pleading with President Kenyatta to remain neutral and allow him to face off with Raila, mano a mano, without any interference.

Now, Uhuru is the Azimio patron and it is said government will be split among Raila, Uhuru and Kalonzo Musyoka.

"He [Ruto] had only seen Raila as the candidate, lawyer Danstan Omari told the Star.

"With the President coming in with a very large catchment zone, it has scared William Ruto, hence, the change of mood and the panic."

For three consecutive days since Friday, Ruto has confined his political activities to Uhuru's Mt Kenya backyard with one clear message: the President should stop tilting the race in Raila's favour.

“I am pleading with him with a lot of respect. Mr President, please just step aside. Leave me alone with Raila. We shall be done with him early in the morning,” Ruto said in Murang'a on Sunday.

Uhuru openly declared his support for Raila at Sagana State Lodge, Sagana III, a month ago.

However, his never-ending political manoeuvres, including reuniting Raila and Kalonzo, is believed to have bolstered the former Prime Minster's chances.

A Radio Africa poll released last week showed that Raila's ratings had jumped by more than 12 per cent in three weeks since Sagana and the twin ODM, Jubilee National Delegates Conventions.

Even if he has decided to help the Kitendawili man (Raila), I plead humbly, he should not unleash the same sword we used together on him (Raila) to cut my feet

On Sunday, Ruto went to great lengths, recalling his political journey with Uhuru and declaring he was his only true friend.

On Friday, Ruto had asked Uhuru not to unleash his sword on his candidature.

“Please tell him (Uhuru) that Ruto has said that even if he has decided to help the Kitendawili man (Raila), I plead with him humbly, that he should not unleash the same sword we used together on him (Raila) to cut my feet,”Ruto said at a rally in Gatundu.

He recalled the charged prayer rallies they held with Uhuru, in which the President's mother also prayed for them to triumph over the International Criminal Court.

“Tell him (Uhuru) that the Ruto you are planning against is the same man you were prayed for together here in Gatundu," Ruto said.

"Even Mama Ngina prayed for us, remind him that it is the same Ruto that you prayed with, please don’t hurt him,” Ruto said.

Lawyer Mugambi Imanyara, who is secretary general of the Kiraitu Murungi-led Mbus party, said Uhuru’s influence in the Raila campaign is immense. He controls the state machinery.

“Uhuru is the incumbent. He was elected. He has support across the country. He leads the Jubilee Party. All combined, he has a huge impact on the Raila popularity,” he told the Star.

Imanyara said Uhuru has technically sealed Raila’s victory.

Uhuru has technicall sealed Raila's victory. He's the incumbent, he was elected, his influence is immense, he controls state machinery

He recalled the charged prayer rallies they held with Uhuru, in which the President's mother also prayed for them to triumph over the International Criminal Court.

“Tell him (Uhuru) that the Ruto you are planning against is the same man you were prayed for together here in Gatundu," Ruto said.

"Even Mama Ngina prayed for us, remind him that it is the same Ruto that you prayed with, please don’t hurt him,” Ruto said.

Lawyer Mugambi Imanyara, who is secretary general of the Kiraitu Murungi-led Mbus party, said Uhuru’s influence in the Raila campaign is immense. He controls the state machinery.

“Uhuru is the incumbent. He was elected. He has support across the country. He leads the Jubilee Party. All combined, he has a huge impact on the Raila popularity,” he told the Star.

Imanyara said Uhuru has "technically sealed Raila’s victory".

“Even those who are against Raila know as much and are only putting on a brave face. Since the endorsement, Raila's ratings have jumped," he said.

But political analyst Javas Bigambo said Ruto is also playing a psychological game to earn sympathy votes.

“He knows that to be more persuasive, he wants it known that he is respectful of the President,” Bigambo told the Star. “To earn the sympathy vote, he must not be seen to be taking the President head-on.”

However, Ruto's lieutenants say they do not fear the President but do not want him to be a casualty of succession politics.

“He is the symbol of national unity. He shouldn't be involved in divisive politics. He shouldn't use public resources to market his project,” Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua told the Star.

Rigathi said their message to the President is tied to the perceived use of statecraft and institutions to silence anti-handshake forces.

As the patron of Azimio, we will unpackage you [Uhuru]. If you get a missile targeted at Raila, don’t complain

“He shouldn’t use the criminal justice system to persecute those opposed to his project [Raila]. That’s what the DP and all of us are telling him,” the Mathira MP added.

His sentiments were backed by Nominated MP David Sankok who quipped, “We will never plead with Uhuru Kenyatta. We are just informing him that he will be getting the missile that is targeted at Raila.

“Let him realise we respect him as the President but not as the Patron of Azimio," Sankok said.

"As the patron of Azimio, we will unpackage you [Uhuru]. If you get a missile targeted at Raila, don’t complain."

In recent weeks, Uhuru has been revitalising his Jubilee political machine that is attracting many aspirants across the country.

On Friday, three MPs defected from Ruto's UDA back to the ruling party. On the same day, Sirisia MP John Walukhe also jumped back to Jubilee.

The President is also publicly campaigning for Raila.

Uhuru has helped rally at least 33 governors behind him.

President Kenyatta is also credited with the successes of the Azimio la Umoja political machine that recently paraded nearly 30 political parties in support of Raila.

Even within Mt Kenya, the President has kept Ruto on his toes. The DP has been consistently campaigning in the region, rallying residents to reject "Project Raila”.

Uhuru is also considered the glue that has brought Raila and Kalonzo together and also for the reentry of Governor Amason Kingi. The Kilifi governor had begun charting his path outside the Raila circle.

Political observers say the county chief’s move would have dented the Azimio la Umoja’s chances at the Coast where Ruto has equally put up a strong fight.

The head of state is also argued to have made it easier for leaders once jittery with Raila to troop back to Jubilee Party ahead of the April nominations.

During a stop in Nairobi after opening a hospital in Mathare on Friday, President Kenyatta restated his commitment to ensuring Raila wins.

“They can insult me but we will remain committed to the unity of Kenya and our top priority will be to improve the lives of the people,” the President said.

Ruto’s allies downplayed the drawbacks presented by Uhuru’s involvement, saying they are only helping the President save himself from future ridicule.

For Ruto’s team, the President’s moves are seen as betrayal, saying Uhuru abandoned them, yet they stood with him in 2013 and 2017.

Pro-handshake leaders say Ruto’s actions are driven by desperation and the DP was just putting on a brave face, having sensed defeat.

Kieni MP Kanini Kega, a former Raila critic turned fierce defender, said, “Ruto has access to intel and all the opinion polls are not in his favour. He is resigning to fate albeit with a a brave face.”

He doesn’t seem to have a clear strategy. On one hand, he is fighting the President. on the other, he is pleading with him. He looks lost and confused

Kega said the DP is “actually pleading with His Excellency (President Kenyatta) not to campaign for Raila since he knows the influence the President commands.”

Ugunja MP Opiyo Wandayi, who is also ODM political affairs secretary, said,"The DP has basically lost it.”

“All his actions are driven by desperation," Wandayi said.

"He doesn’t seem to have a clear strategy. On one hand, he is fighting with the President and on the other, he is pleading with him. He looks lost and confused.”

Wandayi further said, "As s things stand, he will continue losing ground as weeks go by. He had reached his apex. You can see MPs are leaving him. They had thought aspirants would troop to him a the election nears but you can see they are running away."

(Edited by V. Graham) 

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