Azimio presidential candidate Raila Odinga and his UDA counterpart William Ruto are now neck and neck in the race for the top seat, the latest opinion poll by Radio Africa Group shows.
Raila, who is eyeing the presidency for the fifth time, has 46.2 per cent of those polled.
This represents a 1.6 per cent growth from 44.6 per cent he got in the last poll conducted by Radio Africa on June 8 and 9.
Ruto, on the other hand, has closed in on the clear lead Raila had taken after bagging the support of 45.3 per cent of those polled, representing 6.4 per cent growth from 38.9 he got in the last poll.
If the presidential election were to be held today, there's a chance neither of the two would win in the first round.
Roots Party presidential candidate George Wajackoyah seems to be gaining ground with the latest poll placing him a distant third with five per cent of those polled.
Wajackoyah's influence beyond his present five per cent could be a blow to either Raila or Ruto’s bid to win in round one.
Of those polled three per cent are still undecided.
The poll was conducted between last Thursday (July 7) and July 10. It has a margin of error of +/-0.8 per cent and was sponsored by Radio Africa Group.
According to the poll 94 per cent of those polled expressed commitment that they will vote in the coming polls. Six per cent said they will not vote.
The naming of Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua as Raila's running mate seems to have gained some traction. New ratings show Raila has gained over 10 per cent within the last month in Central Kenya after he bagged 30.9 per cent in the new survey of the region.
Ruto’s decision to intensify campaigns in Mt Kenya has also seen him grow his support to 57 per cent from 49.4 per cent he posted in Radio Africa's last poll in June.
Ruto and Raila now lead in five regions each.
Ruto is second in Coast with 45. 3 per cent compared to Raila’s 46.5 per cent; leads in North Rift region with 70 per cent while has Raila 25.1 per cent; in South Rift Ruto has 51.7 per cent while Raila 45 per cent; and 59.6 per cent in Upper Eastern compared to Raila's 32.5 per cent.
Raila leads in Nairobi with 50.2 per cent compared to Ruto's 38.7 per cent; North Eastern 58. 7 per cent compared to Ruto's 41.3 per cent; Lower Eastern 62.7 per cent to Ruto’s 27.6 per cent; Western Kenya 59. 1 per cent against Ruto’s 32.3 per cent; and 71.5 per cent in Nyanza against Ruto’s 20.6 per cent.
One of the key factors supporting Raila's bid is the support he enjoys from the older generation. Those aged over 55 years gave him 52.4 per cent approval compared to Ruto’s 41.4. Wajackoyah has 1.1 per cent of that particular age group. Undecided was 5.1 per cent.
In the age category of those between 46 years to 55 years, Raila still dominated with 49.5 per cent while Ruto had 42.7 per cent and Wajackoya 4.1. Undecided were 3.5.
Raila (46.1) and Ruto (47.3) are virtually neck and neck when those aged between 36 to 45 were polled. Wajackoyah had 4.5 per cent while the undecided were 2.1 per cent.
Ruto enjoys major support among the youthful population between the age of 25 to 35. In that category 48.7 per cent backed the DP with Raila coming in second with 41.5 while Wajackoyah had 6.6 per cent and the undecided were three per cent.
The UDA candidate also leads in the youthful category aged between 18 to 24 with 46.5 per cent compared to Raila’s 41.1 per cent. Wajackoyah has 8.8 per cent while the undecided are 3.6 per cent.
Raila's choice of a woman running mate is yet to reflect positively considering that 46.4 per cent of those polled chose Ruto, who is having Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua as his running mate, compared to Raila’s 44.6 per cent.
At least 5.1 per cent of the women polled supported Wajackoyah while 3.8 per cent were undecided.
Ruto, however, enjoys less support from men at 44.3 per cent compared to Raila’s 47.7 per cent.
Another 4.8 per cent of the men polled backed Wajackoyah while 3.1 per cent were undecided.
On the level of education, 41.3 per cent of those polled had a maximum of secondary education, 17 per cent had college certificates, 14.6 per cent had diplomas, 14.3 per cent had primary education and 8.7 per cent had a degree.
About 0.6 per cent had masters, 0.1 had a PhD, 0.8 had pre-primary education, 1 per cent had no formal education while 1.7 per cent did not wish to disclose their education level.
Those preferring Raila cited his experience in leadership (22 per cent), leadership quality (17 per cent), honesty and trustworthiness (13 per cent), track record (12 per cent), plan for the country and political ideology (11 per cent each), character (5 per cent), intelligence (4 per cent) and care for people like me (4 per cent).
Top reasons for choosing Ruto included plans for the country (24 per cent), care for people like me (22 per cent), political ideology (12 per cent), leadership quality (11 per cent), experience (8 per cent), intelligence (6 per cent), honest and trustworthy (5 per cent), character (5 per cent) and track record (4 per cent).
The survey also sought views on the most pressing issues affecting the country, with the high cost of living topping the list with 58 per cent, unemployment at 14 per cent, corruption at 10 per cent, food insecurity at seven per cent, poor health care at three per cent and others eight per cent.
On income level, 39.8 per cent of those without income backed Raila while 47.8 supported Ruto. Wajackoyah had 8 per cent while the undecided were 4.3 per cent.
The survey also showed that Raila enjoys massive support among high-income earners.
Where a group earns more than Sh150,000, 80 per cent of those polled backed Raila while Ruto had 20 per cent.
Between Sh100,000-Sh150,000, Raila had 71.4 per cent while Ruto had 21.4 per cent.
Among those earning Sh30,000- Sh50,000, Raila had 48.3 per cent while Ruto 45.9 per cent.
Where a group earned Sh50,000-Sh70,000, Raila had 57.7 per cent while Ruto had 38.5.
Between Sh70,0000 to Sh100,000, Raila had 48.5 per cent while Ruto 45.5 per cent.
A total of 52.7 per cent of those who did not disclose their income backed Raila while 36.2 backed Ruto.
Edited by Henry Makori
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