UDA presidential candidate William Ruto is in a statistical tie with Azimio leader Raila Odinga, according to the latest and final Radio Africa Group poll.
The poll shows the Deputy President leading the race with 45 per cent. Raila comes second with 44 per cent, as the race for the presidency gets down to the wire.
This suggests that if elections were held today, neither of the two presidential frontrunners would win in the first round on August 9.
The ratings show both candidates' support bases have declined, with Raila's registering a 2.6 per cent drop. He had 46.2 in Radio Africa's June poll.
Ruto on the other hand has posted a marginal 0.3 per cent drop from the ratings he got in June.
Roots Party presidential candidate George Wajackoyah registered the highest drop of 3 per cent.
He was polled at 2 per cent in the latest poll by Radio Africa.
The number of undecided Kenyans in the latest poll shot up to 9 per cent from 3 registered in June.
The poll has a margin of error of +/-1.8 per cent with a 95 per cent level of confidence.
The survey was conducted between July 20 and 27 and was fully funded by Radio Africa Group.
A total of 3000 respondents took part in the polls and were spread proportionally across the 47 counties.
On sampling methodology, the poll used random, multi-stage stratified, using proportionate to population size spread across all the 47 counties in Kenya.
The sample split was guided by all adults age 18+ proportionate to size as per the per the IEBC register, June 2022.
Data was collected using computer aided telephone interview through English or Swahili language.
The last-minute campaigns are key to both Raila and Ruto in wooing the undecided to their camp and getting the 50 plus one required for a round one win.
The law provides that for one to be declared president, the candidate must garner at least 25 per cent of votes cast in half of the 47 counties.
Opinion pollsters have until Thursday to release their last findings on electoral seats being contested in the August general election.
This is so that they can be in compliance with The Publication of Electoral Opinion Polls Act.
The poll also showed that Ruto's UDA party enjoys majority support of 31 per cent.
Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition party follows closely at 28 per cent, Kenya Kwanza (10 per cent), ODM (9 per cent), and others (5 per cent). 18 per cent of those polled are not affiliated with any party.
"As it stands, the election is a toss-up, with both the William Ruto and Raila Odinga capable of getting the 50% + 1 requirement," Radio Africa Group said.
Of those polled, major reasons for voting for Ruto were plans for the country (26 per cent), care for the people like me (20 per cent), political ideology (13 per cent), leadership quality (12 per cent), experience (9 per cent), character (6 per cent) and track record (6 per cent).
Those who backed Raila said it was because of his plans for the country (24 per cent), track record (19 per cent), experience (16 per cent), leadership quality (12 per cent), political ideology (8 per cent), honesty and trustworthy (7 per cent), cares for people like me (7 per cent), and character (5 per cent).
The poll also showed that more women (45 per cent) support Ruto than Raila (40 per cent). Raila, however, enjoyed the support of more men (47 per cent) than Ruto (45).
Ruto leads in four regions: Central, North Rift, South Rift and Upper Eastern.
Raila leads in six regions: Coast, Lower Eastern, Nairobi, North Eastern, Nyanza and Western
Ruto enjoys the biggest support in North Rift (74 per cent), followed by Upper Eastern (66 per cent), Central (59 per cent), South Rift (50 per cent), Nairobi (43 per cent), Coast and North Eastern (38 per cent each), Western (36 per cent), Lower Eastern (27 per cent) and Nyanza 12 per cent.
Raila on the other hand enjoys major support in Nyanza (78 per cent), Lower Eastern (64 per cent), Western (51 per cent), North Eastern (50 per cent), Coast (46 per cent), Nairobi (44 per cent), South Rift (33 per cent), Upper Eastern and Central (27 per cent) and North Rift (18 per cent).
The poll also established that the most pressing issues affecting the country are high cost of living (53 per cent), corruption (14 per cent), unemployment (13 per cent), food security (5 per cent), poverty (3 per cent), poor quality education (3 per cent). Other reasons had a cumulative 10 per cent.
Of those polled, 51 per cent earn between Sh1-30,000, 27 per cent had no income, 9 per cent between Sh30,001- 50,000, 8 per cent did not disclose, 3 per cent between Sh50,000 to 70, 000. A cumulative 3 per cent earned above Sh70,001.
In the category where candidates earn no income Ruto enjoys 45 per cent support against Raila's 41 per cent. Majority of those earning Sh150,000 and above supported Raila (64 per cent). Ruto got 24 per cent.
Among those who did not disclose, Raila had the most support (49 per cent) while Ruto had 31 per cent.
Most voters polled have attained between primary and degree certificates, with almost half of the electorate having secondary school as the highest academic level achieved.
According to the poll, most regions maintained high willingness to vote in the next general elections with 95 of those polled saying they will vote.
The agenda by both Ruto and Raila was the trait most respondents looked at. Raila’s track record and experience was among his strong points.
Ruto was picked mostly because he is viewed as someone who cares for “common mwananchi” as well as his hustler political ideology.
Edited by Henry Makori
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