It's a political catastrophe for Raila to lose Mombasa, Kilifi —analysts

It will be a political disaster for ODM leader Raila Odinga to lose his grip on the Coast region, especially Mombasa and Kilifi, which have been his bastions, the region’s political pundits have said.

It's looking shaky although ODM leadership in Mombasa has maintained Raila is still their undisputed political leader and ODM is still the region’s favourite political party.

Raila arrived in Mombasa on Thursday evening for a four-day tour of the region, in a perceived attempt to stop President William Ruto’s forays in the region.

In the August 9 general election, Ruto managed 42 per cent of Mombasa’s votes, despite the fact that the ODM deputy party leader, former Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho, was leading  campaigns in the region.

Of the six coastal counties, Raila has three ODM-elected governors in Mombasa (Abdulswamad Nassir), Kilifi (Gideon Mung’aro) and Tana River (Dhado Godana).

President Ruto, on the other hand, has governors in two counties of Kwale (Fatma Achani) and Lamu’s Issa Timamy. The Taita Taveta Governor Andrew Mwadime was elected as an Independent.

In Ruto’s most recent visit to the Coast, he hosted Nassir at State House Mombasa and accompanied him and Kilifi’s Mung’aro to the Galana Kulala irrigation project in Tana River.

The appearances of the two governors with Ruto irked some ODM stalwarts, who felt that they were getting too cosy with the President.

Pwani University don and political analyst Prof Hassan Mwakimako said Raila’s decision to dash to Mombasa, just a few days after Ruto’s visit, was aimed at ensuring the coastal governors and MPs elected on ODM are not lured to the government.

“Because this is probably the only region where he still has a strong following, even though it has been weakened, it will be a big blow to his coalition if Mombasa and Kilifi gravitate towards the government side,” Mwakimako told the Star.

He said the Coastal leaders can work with the Kenya Kwanza government for economic development and government benefits to the regions.

“However, if they change their political allegiance towards anything else (Ruto’s side) then he (Raila) will be in trouble towards the next election,” he added.

However, the ODM leadership in Mombasa has maintained that Raila is still their undisputed political leader and ODM is still the region’s favourite political party.

ODM Mombasa secretary general Geoffrey Busaka said they held several discussions with Raila on how to revamp the party in the region.

“We held several meetings with the party leader, both in-house and public. We are putting down strategies to ensure we strengthen the party from the grassroots to the national level,” Busaka said.

“What I can now tell you is 'just watch this space'!”

Busaka said the assertions that Raila came to Mombasa to counter Ruto’s political assaults against ODM in the region are far from the truth.

“It has been Baba’s (Raila) tradition to come to celebrate his birthday in Mombasa for the past about four years. He loves Mombasa, which is why he always comes to the region,” he said. 

Raila turned 78 on January 7.

“Ruto’s visit was also not political because it has been a tradition of all sitting Presidents to come and celebrate the New Year in Mombasa. We as ODM leadership also welcomed him as the Head of State, it was not political in any way,” Busaka said.

The party official said ODM won five of the six MP seats in Mombasa; Kisauni, Changamwe, Mvita, Likoni and Jomvu, whereas UDA won only the Nyali seat.

He said out of the 30 elected MCAs in Mombasa, ODM won 23 seats, while UDA won four seats and the two were won by other parties.

On Friday, during a meeting with Mombasa-elected ODM leaders and select party officials, Raila announced plans to revamp the party ahead of the 2027 general election.

He rejected claims ODM was weakening and that the Azimio la Umoja Coalition was crumbling after losing the general election.

Raila said he was going nowhere, hinting that he will vie for the country’s top seat for the sixth time in the 2027 general election

“I hear people saying that Raila should go to Bondo, Raila is still strong. I am going nowhere,” he said.

“Some are saying that ODM is dying and our enemy is making inroads in our strongholds, but I am telling them ODM is still strong. In fact, beginning this year we shall embark on a mission to revamp the party from the grassroots level up to the national level," he said.

Those present during Raila’s Friday meeting at Tononoka Social Hall were Governor Nassir, Deputy Governor Francis Thoya, MPs Mohamed Machele (Mvita), Rashid Bedzimba (Kisauni), Omar Mwinyi (Changamwe), Senator Mohammed Faki, Mombasa county Assembly speaker Aharub Khatri and elected and nominated MCAs.

Raila's birthday was held at Tamarind Dhow in Mombasa on Saturday, where he held yet another meeting with ODM top leadership, MPs and MCAs in the region.

Former Mombasa Governor Joho,  a key political figure, who has been missing in Raila’s political meetings, has been out of the country for several months.

Towards the end of last year, there were reports that Joho had resigned from the ODM party, but on Sunday, Raila clarified saying he is still in ODM.

“Joho is currently out of the country, we spoke recently. When he returns he will continue playing his part in the party. ODM is still very strong,” Raila said on Sunday after a church service at ACK Memorial Cathedral in Mombasa.

(Edited by V.Graham)