Kenya will need help with food, medical supplies and clean water until the end of this year, even if El Nino comes, humanitarian agencies say.
Most parts of the country are expected to receive depressed March-May rains, but there is hope that El Nino could save the situation with heavy rains from October.
However, humanitarian agencies said no one is 100 per cent sure that El Nino will come.
If it comes, this phenomenon could also cause reduced rains in Western Kenya towards the end of the June-September season.
Further, extreme heavy rainfalls in a short span will bring in additional shocks like flash floods and water-borne diseases.
These disasters will exacerbate the humanitarian crisis faced by the communities.
“Governments, humanitarian agencies and donors should assume that high multi-sectoral needs will persist, and possibly even increase in 2023. It is therefore imperative to take a “no regrets” response and act now to mitigate the deepening crisis,” the agencies said in a statement.
They include the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the Food and Agriculture Organisation, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) and the World Food Programme.
Separately, WMO called for “caution” over the expected El Nino, saying such long-range forecasts carry considerable uncertainties.
The phenomenon usually brings heavy rains to Kenya, as opposed to La Nina, which brings dry weather.
“The chances of El Niño developing gradually increase from 15 per cent in April-June, to 35 per cent in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55 per cent during June-August. Due to the low performance of seasonal forecast models at this time of year, commonly known as the Northern Hemisphere "spring predictability barrier", it is critical to interpret long-range ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) forecasts with caution,” the WMO said in a statement.
Most drought-hit areas, including northern Kenya where it is not even known whether it will rain soon, are resting hopes on El Nino because it would bring abundant rainfall during the short rainy season between October and December.
However, this could also result in reduced rains in Western Kenya towards the end of the June-September season, experts said.
Humanitarian agencies also warned extremely heavy rainfalls in a short span will bring in additional shocks like flash floods and water-borne diseases.
These disasters will exacerbate the humanitarian crisis faced by the communities.
Nairobi-based IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) also asked donors to prepare for a humanitarian response, especially because of the March-May season.
“The expected dry conditions imply that the current food insecurity situation in the region is expected to worsen and humanitarian organisations are urged to upscale cash transfers and other forms of support to the affected communities,” said Eunice Koech, a climate modelling assistant at ICPAC.
On Tuesday, Kenya Meteorological Department director David Gikungu said weather drivers show most parts of Kenya will receive depressed rains in the March-May season.
He said these rains are still adequate if farmers plant fast-growing or drought-resistant crops.
“The country is already experiencing drought conditions, particularly in arid and semi-arid counties, due to inadequate rainfall over the last five seasons,” Dr Gikungu said.
“A sixth consecutive failed rainy season will be devastating for the millions of people already suffering from the drought.”
While giving the March-May weather forecast in Nairobi, the Meteorological services director said the long rains will be interspersed with long dry spells and storms.
“Despite the expected depressed rains, isolated incidences of storms that could cause flash floods are still likely to occur,” he said.
Koech of Icpac explained why this happens.
“This season is usually influenced by short-life span systems such as tropical cyclones and depending on where they develop and their track, they have a tendency to deprive the region rain-causing moisture thus causing extended dry periods,” she said.
“Similarly, the cyclones can push moist air towards the region; causing episodes of enhanced rainfall.”
March to May period is the major rainfall season (long rains) over most parts of Kenya and much of equatorial Eastern Africa.
The highest seasonal rainfall amounts are normally recorded over the Lake Victoria basin, the highlands west of the Rift Valley, the central and south Rift Valley, the highlands east of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi) and the coastal strip.
The forecast shows temperatures will remain above average over the whole country and higher in northwestern Kenya, and parts of the Rift Valley.