•WMO says the new update is a signal to governments around the world to preparations to limit the impacts on health, ecosystems and economies.
• El Ńino It is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with the warming of the ocean surface temperatures.
Image: FILE
Heavy rains are expected to pound Kenya from September or October as a result of El Niño, likely bringing flooding, flashfloods and landslides.
And disease, such as malaria and dengue fever.
And certainly El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years.
The World Meteorological Department say there will be a likely surge in global temperatures and disruptive weather and climate patterns.
In fact, the probability of the El Niño event continuing during the second half of 2023 is 90 per cent and is expected to be at least moderate in strength.
WMO's update combines forecasts and expert guidance from around the world.
In anticipation of El Niño, the World Health Organization has asked countries to prepare for possible disease outbreaks.
Diseases such as dengue and malaria are likely to occur due to the El Niño weather phenomenon in 2023 and 2024.
Malaria, chikungunya virus and dengue virus are endemic causes of illness among children in Kenya, and outbreaks are common in wet seasons.
Both chikungunya and dengue are transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, while malaria is transmitted by the Anopheles mosquito.
World Meterological Organization secretary general Prof Petteri Taalas said El Niño would greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean.
“The declaration of an El Niño by WMO is the signal to governments around the world to mobilise preparations to limit the impacts on our health, our ecosystems and our economies,” he said.
“Early warnings and anticipatory action of extreme weather events associated with this major climate phenomenon are vital to saving lives and livelihoods,” Taalas said.
El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes typically last nine to 12 months.
It is a naturally occurring climate pattern sue to the warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
It takes place in the context of a climate changed by human activities.
On May 16, the Kenya Meteorological Department issued an update saying El Nino is expected to occur during the October to December season.
Kenya Met Director Dr David Gikungu said during El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than average.
La Niña is characterised by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same regions.
“El Niño is often associated with heavy rains and floods during the OND {October-November-December} season especially in East Africa,” Gikungu said.
Model predictions and expert assessment indicate a moderate probability (60 per cent chance) for the onset of El Niño during May to July this year.
“This probability is expected to increase to 60-70 per cent during June to August and it is highly likely, with a chance of 70 to 80 per cent in July through October 2023," the meteorologist said
El Niño conditions are expected to persist up to the OND 2023 rainfall season and may extend to the November to January season, Gikungu said.
He said it is important to note that El Niño itself is not rain, but rather an effect that can impact weather patterns and lead to heavier-than-normal rainfall in East Africa.
“While heavy rains are commonly experienced during El Niño events, it is also notable that these effects are typically most significant during the ONDJ {October-November-December-January} months and not in June, July and August," he said.
"It should also be understood that El Niño is not necessarily a direct cause of heavy rainfall. While it can impact weather patterns and result in heavier-than-normal rainfall, the effects of El Niño can vary significantly between events,” Gikungu said.
Gikungu said in 1987, for instance, the OND season was an El Niño event that did not result in heavy rainfall over the country.
In 2015, the El Niño index was higher than that of 1997 but the country did not experience as much rainfall as it did in 1997.
Gikungu said Kenya Met is monitoring the situation and will be providing timely updates.
In May, WMO released a report predicting a 98 per cent likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record. It will likely exceed the record set in 2016 when there was an exceptionally strong El Niño.
WMO’s State of the Global Climate reports 2016 was the warmest year on record because of the “double whammy” of a very powerful El Niño event and human-induced warming from greenhouse gases.
The effect on global temperatures usually plays out the year after its development and will likely be most apparent in 2024.
The average global temperature in 2022 was about 1.15 °C above the 1850-1900 average because of the cooling triple-dip La Niña.
El Niño events are typically associated with increased rainfall in southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia.
In contrast, El Niño can also cause severe droughts in Australia, Indonesia, parts of southern Asia, Central America and northern South America.
WMO said since February 2023, monthly average sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have warmed significantly.