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DAVID KIMEI: Weak shilling means cost of living goes up

We have some headroom to borrow but we should not borrow as the shilling is feeble and exports are low.

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by JULIUS OTIENO

News14 November 2023 - 04:20

In Summary


  • The remedy is to increase production and exports, and expand manufacturing and agriculture.
  • We should swap debt, retire expensive loans and not import what we can make ourselves ⸻
Economist David Kimei

The implication of the weak shilling against major world currencies is that imports will be more expensive.

It means the repayment of debts will be more expensive.

It also means that inflation in the country will be high.

And, generally, the cost of living will go up.

In short, what is happening to the Kenyan shilling against other currencies is not good for the economy.

And if the economy is bad, then it means Kenyans are the ones going to take the heat in their pockets.

The remedy is simply to increase production and exports.

And then also, do import substitution.

That means that instead of us importing some of the goods from outside, we either grow locally, if they are crops or food, and manufacture instead of importing.

So, the government should just be making sure that policies are very friendly for import substitution.

The government should relook at policies for expanding factories and the manufacturing sector and policies to expand agriculture. 

On debt, one thing that can be done is to swap debt.

This means that you get new debts that have friendly terms in terms of interest, repayment period and a grace period.

We also need to retire those that are expensive in terms of interest rates, grace period and length of repayment.

The other one is to live within our means so that we do not have to increase debt or borrow.

These are the strategies that may help us as a country.

The National Treasury has revised the budget deficit, basically implying that they now have some room for more borrowing.

However, more borrowing may not be advisable when you have a weak shilling and low exports.

It may not be the best option for the government at this time.

The best option would just be to live within our means instead of piling more debt.

Even if we have some headroom to borrow, borrowing would still not be the best option for the government at this time. 

The economist spoke to the Star



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