The first leg of the Republican race for the White House is just weeks away in Iowa and Donald Trump has what seems an insurmountable lead. But could the millions of dollars his rivals are still spending overhaul him?
When Marlys Popma stepped through the doors of a community college in Newton, Iowa, on a bitterly cold morning last week, she did so as an undecided voter.
But when she emerged an hour later, she was determined to vote for Nikki Haley.
The Republican activist's mind was changed by a short speech the former UN ambassador made to a small gathering in a conference room, underlining her competency and empathy.
"Be bold," Ms Popma, an influential former party official, told her fellow Republicans in the room after telling them, to applause, that she was backing Haley.
She also made a thinly veiled reference to Donald Trump's commanding lead in the polls.
"Don't be afraid to support the person you want to support [just] because you think that somebody else is going to win," said Ms Popma.
On 15 January, Republican voters will meet to support a presidential candidate in the Iowa caucuses, the first real-world test for those vying to secure the party's nomination ahead of the 2024 election. A caucus involves people attending a meeting - maybe for a few hours - before they vote on their preferred candidate, perhaps via a head count or a show of hands
One poll last week by Iowa State University found that 54% of likely caucus-goers picked Mr Trump as their top choice, compared with 18% for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, 12% for Ms Haley and just 6% for biotech millionaire Vivek Ramaswamy.
In an effort to close the gap, the candidates have kept up a gruelling campaign schedule, spending millions and making hundreds of stops across Iowa, in venues large and small, from churches and schools to farms and hotels.
Mr DeSantis has set aside $3.3m (£2.6m) to spend on advertising in Iowa between November and the vote, compared with $3.5m by Ms Haley and an eye-watering $8m pledged by the Ramaswamy campaign, although it has so far only booked $162,000 in broadcast and digital ads, according to Adimpact, a media tracking firm.
At four campaign events last week, voters told the BBC everything could change. "There's a lot of undecideds here," says Ms Popma. "I think the number of undecideds in Iowa is actually huge."
At a forum in Des Moines held by influential Christian organisation The Family Leader, pastor and social worker Philip Herman says voters are open to hearing more, even as election day in Iowa nears.
"I think the gap is going to close tremendously… I think what I want to see is these candidates play the long game."