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New forecast shows El Nino rains to continue until February

But Icpac, in its statement said the  phenomenon would contribute to a further spike in temperatures in Kenya

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by JOHN MUCHANGI

News27 November 2023 - 02:01
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In Summary


  • The report showed the entire country would experience above-normal temperatures.
  • The ongoing rains have now killed more than 80 Kenyans, who have drowned in floods.
Icpac said the wetter conditions were directly caused by the El Nino phenomenon.

A regional weather agency has predicted most parts of Kenya will be wetter than usual until February next year.

This means the government response to the current floods must continue beyond January, when seasonal rains usually end.

The Nairobi-based Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Centre predicted that December, January and February will be wetter than usual.

Icpac said the wetter conditions were directly caused by the El Nino phenomenon.

The forecast shows only areas around West Pokot on the Ugandan border, Turkana, Mandera and parts of Garissa on the Somalia border will be spared of heavy rains toward February.

The rest of the country, especially Central Kenya including Nairobi, and southern Kenya along Tanzania border will have rains.

The weather agency said the rains will be good for farmers who planted in October, but might also damage some foods.

“There’s possible damage of infrastructure such as bridges, roads and irrigation equipment. Wetter than usual conditions might interfere with harvesting of crops which might lead to grain spoilage in the North Rift region,” it said in a statement.

But Icpac, in its statement said the El Niño phenomenon would contribute to a further spike in temperatures in Kenya.

The report showed the entire country would experience above-normal temperatures.

The ongoing rains have now killed more than 80 Kenyans, who have drowned in floods.

On Thursday, eight people drowned as they crossed a flooded River Muuoni in Emali, Makueni county, while another two died in Isiolo.

The eight who died in Makueni were attempting to cross the swollen river on their way home from a church event in Nairobi.

Kavuthu chief Norman Musyoki and police said they were crossing from Kavuthu to Mutyambua when the tragedy happened.

Among those killed was 63-year-old Agnes Munyao whose body was retrieved at Ndivuni village, some 70km from the spot where they were swept away.

Two other bodies were also retrieved on Friday as villagers along the river were asked to alert authorities if they spot any bodies.

The victims were part of a larger group returning home after a meeting with First Lady Rachel Ruto in Kasarani, Nairobi.

The Red Cross and the county disaster teams said they had deployed rescue and search personnel to the area.

In Isiolo, two family members died Thursday night following a downpour at Attan village in Ngaremara ward.

Isiolo deputy county commissioner Patrick Musango confirmed the deaths saying so far, three people have lost their lives following floods caused by the ongoing heavy rain in the area.

El Nino occurs on average every two to seven years and typically lasts nine to 12 months.

El Nino last occurred in 2018-2019 and was followed by an exceptionally long La Nin—El Nino's cooling opposite— which ended earlier this year.

Last month, the World Meteorological Organisation secretary general Petteri Taalas said El Nino impacts on global temperature typically play out in the year after its development, in this case in 2024.

“Extreme events such as heatwaves, drought, wildfires, heavy rain and floods will be enhanced in some regions, with major impacts. That is why WMO is committed to the early warnings for all initiative to save lives and minimise economic losses,” he said.

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