- Kenya Meteorological Department said there is approximately 90 per cent chance of El Nino to prevail during the remaining part of the year and may extend into early 2024
- This forecast would in weeks that followed be greeted with ridicule online as the country experienced enhanced temperatures instead of rains.
Image: FILE
Variations in wind strength and ocean temperatures in the vast Pacific Ocean lead to two distinct climate patterns, El Niño and La Niña.
El Nino is characterised by warmer sea temperatures rushing towards the equator leading to wetter conditions whilst La Nina is marked by unusually cold ocean temperatures leading to warmer and drier conditions than usual.
The switch between the two natural climate patterns occurs every three to seven years and episodes typically last nine to 12 months.
The last time Kenya experienced such conditions was in 2015-16 and the worst El Nino season occurred in 1997-98.
The switch
Dry conditions brought by the three consecutive La Niñas between 2020 and 2021 exacerbated the most severe drought the region has seen in over 40 years in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia rendering millions at risk of starvation.
But on July 4, the World Meteorological Organisation declared the development of El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific, setting in motion the onset of enhanced rainfall during the October-December season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) made a similar prediction.
The WMO called on all governments including Kenya to put in place measures to reduce the impact of the phenomenon on people’s health, the ecosystems and the economy.
“The declaration of an El Niño by WMO is the signal to governments around the world to mobilise preparations to limit the impacts on our health, our ecosystems and our economies,” WMO secretary general Petteri Taalas said in a statement.
In its update on July 30, the Kenya Meteorological Department said “El Niño is often associated with heavy rains and floods during the October to December season, especially in East Africa."
“Based on model predictions and expert assessment, there is a very high likelihood (approximately 90 per cent chance) of El Niño to prevail during the remaining part of the year and may extend into early 2024,” Director of Meteorological Services David Gikungu said in a statement.
This forecast would be greeted with ridicule online in weeks that followed as the country experienced enhanced temperatures instead of rains.
But on November 6 after four days of torrential rains mostly in the Northeastern and Tana River counties, Gikungu said that marked the start of El Nino.
“Yes, it is El Nino. Today I have looked at the features and it is positive," he said during a TV interview.
He, however, clarified that El Nino is not always about rainfall as there are other factors which indicate El Nino.
“We have other drivers which we monitor as signals. Sometimes we have a reversal of the systems that drive the rains, and therefore a serious reduction called La Niña," he said.
No El Nino?
Two weeks earlier on October 22, President William Ruto had said the met department had downscaled its El Nino alert.
"You see the department has now said there will be no El Nino, we will only have significant rains, which is even better for us to get to our farms and produce more," Ruto said.
In the July 30 update, Gikungu said that June, July, August and September (JJAS) were the only months science had indicated would experience below-average rainfall.
“Recent research has highlighted the significant influence of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions on the JJAS season's rainfall patterns in Eastern Africa. Specifically, El Niño events during JJAS are more likely to result in below-average rainfall,” he said.
In its update on August 22, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) said there was an exceptionally high probability (over 80 per cent) of experiencing wetter-than-usual rainfall in southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya and southern Somalia.
“We all remember the last El Niño in 2015-16 when downpours of torrential rains caused landslides, flash floods and buildings to collapse. Governments and disaster management agencies are advised to take all necessary measures to save lives and livelihoods,” ICPAC director Guleid Artan said.
“Another significant phenomenon known as the Indian Ocean Dipole is developing over the Indian Ocean and will reinforce the El Niño impacts,” he added.
On November 17, the intensity of the rains hit a fever pitch as torrents left roads impassable mostly in Garissa, Tana River and Mombasa.
The situation prevailed for a week leading to deaths where in some incidents vehicles were swept away as they attempted to cross flooded rivers.
Government statistics show that at least 142 people had died from drowning in flood waters and over 89,000 were displaced as of December 2.
The update by the Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki, however, came at a time when the country had not experienced rain in six days.
He nonetheless said all residents living contiguous to Masinga, Kamburu, Kindaruma, Gitaru, and Kiambere Dams would be evacuated to safer ground.
“Once the experts issue alerts, notices to evacuate will be issued and those likely to be affected have been profiled and their data collected to facilitate real-time communication,” he said.
Floods and sunny conditions alert
In its November 28 update, the Metrological Department issued a forecast saying certain parts of the country will experience more sunny dry conditions.
The seven-day forecast ending December 4, said high temperatures above 30°C would prevail in the Coastal region, Northeastern, Northwestern and some Southeastern lowlands.
"Southern regions still experiencing rain, while the north sees more sun and dry conditions. Nights in parts of Highland East Rift Valley will be chilly (<10°C)," the department said in a statement.
A day earlier on November 27, the Water Resources Authority had issued a flood alert saying flood-prone areas should brace for heavier flooding on the strength of intensified rains.
CEO Reuben Ngessa said this will be experienced until early December, around the same time the Met department predicted sunny conditions in those very flood-prone areas.
According to the KMD forecast, the rains will continue into December 2023.
"Subsequently, flooding is expected to escalate in the already exposed areas of Garissa, Tana River, Coastal strip, Wajir, Mandera and Isiolo counties," Ngessa said.
A needs assessment by the Flood Command Centre under the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) found that Garissa and Tana River counties are prone to flooding due to their flat and low-lying topography.