Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi’s enhanced roles in the Kenya Kwanza administration climaxed President William Ruto's moves that could recast his succession.
Mudavadi's sweeping roles at the centre of President Ruto's delivery agenda, could eclipse Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and consolidate his influence within the government.
Political symbolism
Of great political symbolism, the appointment of Mudavadi as the Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs affixed him in pole position in Ruto's 2032 succession matrix.
Analysts argue that the elevation could help Mudavadi stamp his authority as the undisputed Western Kenya political kingpin and formidable force in Ruto's succession arithmetic.
Mudavadi's Western backyard has twice spurned him in the past, even when he was on the ballot and instead supported Azimio boss Raila Odinga for president.
Analysts have opined that Mudavadi's larger-than-life stature in the Kenya Kwanza government could offer him political latitude to build a national profile ahead of Ruto's succession race.
While Mudavadi was handed the Foreign Affairs portfolio over and above planning and monitoring development projects, Gachagua was left with the role of coordinating devolution and chairing Cabinet Committees.
Strategic Ruto
Analysts say the President's move was strategic to partly manage expectations in Western Kenya and assert his authority as the de facto leader of the Kenya Kwanza administration.
Ruto is said to be scheming to turn the tables on Raila in Western Kenya as part of his reelection strategy with Mudavadi expected to play a key role.
However, there are no indications of him dropping Gachagua, a shrewd politician whose approach neutralised retired President Uhuru Kenyatta in Mt Kenya region.
Previous perceptions that the Jubilee administration was shared between then President Kenyatta and Ruto, then the second-in-command, were blamed for their eventual political fallout.
Some observers have opined that Mudavad's elevations to supervise Principal Secretaries and oversee the delivery of the Kenya Kwanza development agenda could be part of Ruto's scheme to rejig his succession race.
Having penetrated and consolidated his support in the larger Mt Kenya region without Gachagua's hand, Ruto could be scheming a plan B with interest in the Western Kenya vote bloc in readiness for the 2027 duel against the Azimio coalition.
“The President is being strategic and sending a message that he can not be held at ransom by Mt Kenya and in case they dump him, he has an option in Western Kenya,” political analyst Alexander Nyambuga said.
The university don told the Star that the President could have learnt a lot from his fall out with his predecessor that might be informing his strategic political interventions with eyes gazed on a second term in 2027.
"It was Ruto who toppled Uhuru as the Mt Kenya kingpin. What limits Gachagua from turning the tables on him in the same region? Ruto is well aware of the past and is planning ahead,” he said.
Through his first Executive Order of 2023, Ruto ordered that Mudavadi will assist him and his deputy in "the coordination and supervision of government ministries and State Departments."
Mudavadi—Ruto's successor?
As the boss of the government development agenda, Mudavadi wields immense influence within the Kenya Kwanza administration and has been calling the shots in the state hierarchy.
With these new roles, Mudavadi could traverse the country to inspect and launch development projects being done by the Kenya Kwanza administration, getting massive coverage and political capital.
In retired President Kenyatta's administration, Ruto built his political war chest through his many countrywide trips to oversee the rollout of government development projects, especially in the first term.
He then leveraged his tours to commission development projects to knit a powerful working relationship with politicians across the political divide as he plotted to succeed Uhuru.
“The President (Ruto)made inroads across the country because of his frequent tours to commission development programmes, that is how he built his political capital that rattled the Uhuru administration,” said former MP Ahmed Mohamed.
Through his elevated roles, Mudavadi is expected to maintain a massive political presence across the country to possibly position himself as a likely candidate to succeed Ruto.
However, with Gachagua-the country's de facto second in command-seen as the favourite in Ruto's succession race, the two are likely to escalate their cold war in the coming years.
Silent squabbles
Already, there are indications that Mudavadi and Gachagua are rocked in silent political squabbles and power tussles in Ruto's three-decker administration.
During the Cabinet retreat in Nanyuki in 2023, Mudavadi was categorical that President Ruto is the undisputed leader of the Kenya Kwanza government.
“There is no Gachagua government, there is no Musalia government, this is President William Ruto's government and all of us are working towards helping him fulfil his mandate,” Mudavadi said.
"The President demystified the notion that Gachagua is the natural successor, the elevation of Mudavadi is a game changer in the Ruto succession matrix,” observed Alex Kinyua, a political analyst.
Gachagua and Mudavadi are said to be roiled in vicious fights over President Ruto's succession politics.
There are fears that the palace wars could escalate in the coming months as political heavyweights intensify their schemes to lay the ground to succeed the President.
Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale lifted the lid on the silent political tensions and mistrust between Gachagua and Mudavadi following Ruto's perceived preference for Mudavadi.
Khalwale, who serves as the Kenya Kwanza's Majority Whip in the Senate, declared that President Ruto would be succeeded by a Luyha and not Gachagua.
"Deputy President listen to me, whether you like it or not in 2032, the way Uhuru left and Ruto entered, when Ruto leaves it will be a Luhya who will enter," he said.
The MP's remarks exposed the vicious wars roiling the government as regional leaders embarked on early schemes to succeed Ruto but also affirmed Mudavadi's growing influence.
This was the first time that a high-ranking member of Ruto's UDA was taking on the country's second-in-command and deputy party leader.
In a no-holds-barred tackle, the senator claimed that Gachagua is behind a scheme to destabilise various regional leaders by planting what he termed as "junior politicians".
The President, who is barely 14 months in office, is expected to seek reelection in 2027.
If Ruto wins a second term, he will not be eligible for a further term and will retire in 2032 per the constitution, which caps the presidential term limit at 10 years.
Some claim that the move to elevate Mudavadi did not go down well with Gachagua's camp after it was seen as possibly part of a wider game plan by Ruto's strategists to recast the President's succession battle.
As the President’s blue-eyed boy, Mudavadi was tasked to be the face of the Kenya Kwanza government’s global affairs, making him a strategic player within the Ruto administration.
Former Kitutu Masaba MP Timothy Bosire said the ruling administration is a government at war with itself from many fronts that could consume it.
"Never before has the country had a government that is absolutely clueless and only consuming itself from the inside. The problem is more than just succession politics, it is about shortcomings in management," he said.
The ODM national treasurer said the President has not taken control of the government as is required of a chief executive officer of a country.