A cloud of unease hangs over Mt Kenya region amidst speculation about a potential secret deal between President Ruto and Opposition leader Raila Odinga over Raila’s AU job bid.
There are fears the purported deal – and President William Ruto pushing Raila for the top African Union position – might disadvantage the region and even tilt the politics completely.
It should not be lost on anyone that Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, the region's de facto kingpin, has yet to openly support Raila, raising more questions about his role as second in command.
Gachagua has been a strong critic of the former Azimio boss and has never shied away from publicly criticising him. He has opposed any consideration of a handshake.
While it is not clear if Ruto and Raila haven entered into any political pact, the alleged secret agreement has sent shockwaves through the region, leaving its leaders grappling with discontent and uncertainty.
The political landscape is further complicated by the implications and power dynamics within the region. The situation has prompted Kiambu Senator Karungo Thangwa to question government's support for Raila's AU bid over that of retired President Uhuru Kenyatta.
"I have heard the country is supporting Raila Odinga and then I asked myself, [why do] you want us to choose this person (Raila) when our Uhuru is here?" Thangwa asked.
His position encapsulates the frustration among the leaders who say their regional interests should take precedence.
He reflects a sentiment shared by many leaders who argue Gachagua should throw his support behind Uhuru, emphasising regional solidarity over external alliances.
Political analysts assert that Raila quitting local politics for the AU will automatically alter the state of affairs in Mt Kenya dramatically. They say it doesn’t even require a deal between Ruto and Raila.
Mark Bichache argues the region is known for Raila-phobia and his absence means that dynamics are bound to change since there is no one to focus on.
“The fact that Raila is moving is a game changer,” he told the Star. “And if there is a deal, then it’s for sure that recent forays by Ruto in Nyanza and investments in Western indicate a big change come 2027.”
Bichache said there’s a great likelihood “if you do the mathematics” that Mt Kenya will be relegated to the premiership or the prime cabinet secretary position in 2027, regardless of the current situation.
Noting the AU job is a game of politics, Bichache said Ruto’s aim is to wrest Nyanza and other regions dominated by Raila.
"This will materialise if Raila succeeds in his bid and Ruto will do so by appointing more people from those regions to his government since he has indicated he is unhappy with some Cabinet Secretaries," he said.
"He aims to ensure the completion of the tasks at hand and secure votes in Nyanza, breaking away from the tradition of relying solely on Mt Kenya for electoral support."
With Raila off the board, Ruto’s run for a second term could be easier.
Some of Ruto’s footsoldiers have defended the move to support Raila, dismissing claims of a clandestine deal as false.
“We are pushing Raila as a united Kenya and not as Kenya Kwanza. Those other deals will come later if there is [a deal] but as of now, everybody is in total support of Raila,” Bomet Senator Hillary Sigei said.
“There is no division as to whether this is a candidate from Mt Kenya, or Nyanza. This is a candidate from Kenya,” he added.
On Thangwa’s call for Uhuru to be supported for the job, the senator noted the former President has not offered himself for the post, “so how can you support someone who has not declared his candidature?”
Adding complexity to the situation is the alliance between Uhuru and Raila established during the last presidential race.
Some observers speculate that Raila securing the AU Commission chairman’s role could potentially enhance his political powers, further influencing the dynamics within the populous Mt Kenya region.
With Uhuru as Raila's key ally, the region finds itself at the centre of a political storm of speculations about the potential consequences if Raila gets the AU job.
Influence within the region hangs in a delicate balance, as leaders contemplate the impact of decisions made behind closed doors.
“Should Raila win, then Gachagua’s prominence will diminish as Uhuru returns to limelight as the region’s kingpin,” a vocal MP from the region said, declining to be named.