The impending polls of the United Democratic Alliance slated for between April and August are anticipated to be highly contentious, especially in regions where there are strong opposition from other parties.
The challenge lies in UDA's endeavour to select candidates capable of effectively advocating for the party's agenda in areas where parties like ODM and Jubilee hold significant sway.
The party will initially test its luck on April 26, in seven counties, namely Nairobi, Narok, West Pokot, Busia, Homa Bay, Isiolo, and Garissa
While the second phase will be on June 22, in 13 counties namely; Mombasa, Uasin Gishu, Nyandarua, Tharaka Nithi, Machakos, Kisii, Bungoma, Siaya, Taita Taveta, Wajir, Tana River, Kwale and Marsabit.
For the third phase, the elections will be on August 10 in Kiambu, Embu, Kericho, Meru, Migori, Kakamega, Nyamira, Kitui, Elgeyo Marakwet, Samburu, Kajiado, Mandera, Kilifi, Murang’a and Lamu.
The last phase will take place on August 24 in Nakuru, Bomet, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Nandi, Baringo, Turkana, Laikipia, Trans Nzoia, Kisumu, Vihiga and Makueni.
Analysts have divergent views regarding UDA's chances of success in the grassroots elections.
Some argue that the party's meticulous planning, including the appointment of officials and the introduction of new leadership positions, demonstrates its commitment to a robust electoral process.
They state that UDA’s party strategic approach, including the staggered phases of elections and the appointment of key officials, demonstrates a concerted effort to strengthen its position.
They argue that UDA's emphasis on electronic voting and promises of a free and fair exercise indicate a commitment to transparency and inclusivity, which could resonate with voters.
However, others are skeptical about UDA's prospects, citing the disinterest among candidates and the challenges posed by rival parties in key regions.
The stronghold of parties like ANC and Ford Kenya in Western Kenya, as well as the influence of DAP-K led by Eugene Wamalwa, are expected to pose significant hurdles for UDA.
However, smaller parties especially, are aggressively recruiting members to counter UDA's influence ahead of the 2027 general election.
In the Mt Kenya region, UDA aims to retain its support base, facing competition from fringe parties like The Farmers Party, Usawa Kwa Wote, vying for a share of UDA's popularity. PNU, The New Democrats, Jubilee and the Party of Democratic Unity indicates a struggle for a share of UDA's popularity.
These parties are actively wooing members, adding to the complexity of the political landscape. Already, USAWA Kwa Wote led by former Murang’a governor Mwangi Wa Iria and Farmers party led by KEMSA chairman Irungu Nyakera, have mounted billboards in Murang’a urging members to register as members.
The recent boardroom appointments within UDA's leadership structures, including the appointment of KRA Chair Anthony Mwaura as the chairman of the party National Elections Board, and KPLC Board Chair Joy Mdivo as the head of the Electoral Dispute Resolution Committee, indicate the party's readiness to conduct free and fair elections.
Further, the failure of other parties' grassroots election attempts in the past raises doubts about UDA's ability to navigate similar hurdles successfully.
Gatanga MP Edward Muriu, in an interview with Star, affirmed that the UDA election will uphold principles of fairness and transparency.
He emphasised its pivotal role in advancing the party's agenda and fortifying both its grassroots and national framework.
Muriu said UDA's decision to stagger its grassroots elections across various phases reflects its strategic approach to consolidate support nationwide.
“With plans to establish a robust network from the polling centre to the national level, the party aims to engage diverse stakeholders and communities, including farmers, small-scale entrepreneurs, and marginalised groups,” Muriu said.
He called on aspirants to register and support the party at the grassroots level noting that all factors have been considered to ensure all candidates will be comfortable.
The emergence of fringe parties vying for UDA's popularity further complicates the electoral landscape but UDA honchos say the party is no pushover, and have dared the small units to "conduct the public opinion they seek to do through the activations.
In Nairobi county, UDA might face a challenge as they conduct elections in constituencies such Westlands, Kibra, and Embakasi East, Mathare, Starehe and Dagoretti North among others.
These are highly regarded as ODM zones and past move by the UDA to penetrate and field its candidates proved futile.
Similarly, in the Mt Kenya region, UDA intends to retain its support base in key areas like Murang'a, Kiambu, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Laikipia, Nakuru and Nyeri while it will be a free sail in the Rift Valley region.
In September last year, President William Ruto and his deputy officially launched new UDA Central region offices in Nyeri town.
He said the move will solidify and expand the ruling party to national level to unite the country, communities and interests.
"We want to make sure that the leadership of the party is determined by the membership of the party," Ruto said.
"Everybody who wants to be an official of the party must go back to the polling station and begin the journey from there. Socialise yourselves with the members of the party," he said.
Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua recent foray in the region has helped to consolidate the region after he was unanimously endorsed by more than 100 legislators as the region's spokesperson.
Political analyst Andrew Maringa says the region would have suffered a huge blow if Gachagua would have solved the succession debate which was being pushed by youthful leaders who had endorsed Ndindi Nyoro as possible deputy to Ruto in the next election.
He states that the recent push by some leader to divide Mt Kenya region along county lines would have disintegrated the region and thus hampering the success of the party.
Joseph Gachane, another political analyst told the Star that UDA will only get it right if it will manage to consolidate its support base by conducting free and fair election.
“UDA has outlined a comprehensive strategy for the grassroots elections, its success hinges on navigating the intricate political dynamics and overcoming the challenges posed by rival parties. The outcome of the elections will ultimately determine the party's strength and influence at the grassroots level," he said.
The party in a statement recently said those who intend to vie shall pay a non-refundable fee of Sh200 while those contesting at the ward and constituency levels shall part with Sh1,000 and Sh2,000 respectively.
While the UDA aspirants at the county level positions shall pay participation fees of Sh20,000 for the chairperson and vice chairperson, Sh10,000 for the secretary, deputy secretary, treasurer and organising secretary.
Other county positions shall cost Sh5,000 for aspirants.
Earlier, UDA party had faced internal wrangles over plans to create three deputy party leader posts, ahead of the UDA’s first grassroots elections on December 9 as top politicians from the party, specifically from the vote-rich Mt Kenya region, being skeptical of the proposal.
They argued that the move was a plot to weaken Gachagua’s political influence and disrupt his presidential ambitions in the future within the party.
Lucy Wanyitu,UDA coordinator Nyeri county told the star that the clause to have three deputies in the party has been deleted and thus their party top organ will have one party leader and deputy.
She noted that the move had created a lot of political tension that led to delay and postponement of the election.
She said the move to stagger the election is aimed to solve any arising matter that needs the serious attention from the top organs.
“If you check on the time table of the election, we have started with opposition strongholds to act as a litmus test of how the election will go on, and then we will have serious candidates from our strongholds," she said.
She further said some counties haven’t registered a good number of party members but maintained that by the time election will be held in such counties, they have have rallied the members to join and register.
Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga opposed the plans.
He argued that having Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang'ula in those positions will water down the position and influence of Gachagua as Ruto’s deputy.
“This will be an insult to the voters of Mt Kenya region, who are major shareholders in this government. Any plans to twist the region would be met with unequivocal opposition,” he said.
Nyeri Senator Wahome Wamatinga had expressed concerns that establishing multiple centres of power could result in duplicated roles and power struggles among leaders.
He emphasised the urgency of addressing this issue to prevent potential conflicts before they escalate.
"The government structure must be mirrored in the party leadership structure. Imagine a situation where Gachagua, being the senior-most political figure in UDA by virtue of being the deputy president, has several other officers who are of his status in the party hierarchy," Wamatinga said.