Secret camps have emerged in Azimio La Umoja amid a protracted scheme to succeed Raila Odinga whose departure from the local politics is imminent.
Raila is eyeing a top African Union Commission job, an endeavour that could lock him out of local politics, should he succeed, after dominating the scene for decades.
The Star has established that at least four factions have emerged in the giant opposition coalition that could threaten its existence.
The camps are charting different paths casting doubt on the unity of the coalition beyond 2027.
“Azimio was a special-purpose vehicle for the 2022 election. Since elections are over, and they lost, there is now no need for them to stick together,” said political analyst Martin Andati.
He said the opposition coalition will eventually disintegrate.
“Without Raila, I don’t think Azimio will exist. Raila is an enigma, let us be honest,” said political commentator Charles Munyui.
Wiper leader Kalonzo Muysoka and his DAP-Kenya counterpart Eugene Wamalwa appear to have found working chemistry.
The two have been moving around the country together as they attack President William Ruto’s administration.
They have been together in press conferences, church and other social events together as they attack the regime.
They have been critical of the government, threatening to lead opposition mass protests in the wake of controversial finance bills and demolitions.
“This time round if we call street protests, people will come out from Nyeri, Murang’a, Kutui…people from Kapsabet and Kisumu will come out to tell Ruto to go home,” Kalonzo said recently.
Politically, Kalonzo largely controls his Ukambani backyard and parts of Coast with about 1.5 million voters.
He has been positioning himself to succeed Raila as the opposition’s supremo. Already, the former vice president has declared he will take on Ruto in the 2027 general election.
On the other hand, Narc Kenya boss Martha Karua and Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni are leading the faction from Mt Kenya.
Former Murang'a Governor Mwangi Wairia, PNU boss Peter Munya and former Laikipia Governor Nderitu Muriithi are oscillating around this faction.
Karua and Kioni led the Limuru III meeting that announced the formation of a new coalition, Haki Coalition, that targets small parties from the region.
The announcement of the formation of the new outfit has triggered talk over their commitment to Azimio, with political observers saying they could be one leg out of Azimio.
The lot is coalescing around former President Uhuru Kenyatta. Uhuru is the chairman of the Azimio council and their departure from Azimio would spell death for the coalition.
Karua, Munya, Kioni and Muriithi were the key pillars of Azimio in the vote-rich Mt Kenya. They traversed the areas drumming up support for Raila.
Raila got close to one million votes from the region.
However, some Azimio members have downplayed the impact of the ‘new’ Mt Kenya coalition, saying the Azimio principals are just consolidating their bases.
“Eventually on their own, they cannot go anywhere. They still need a bigger coalition and obviously, they are still allergic to Kenya Kwanza,” Makueni Daniel Maanzo told the Star.
The other faction is that of ODM. Top echelons have been focused on rebuilding and marketing the party.
Former governors Wycliffe Oparanya (Kakamega) and Hassan Joho (Mombasa) – both deputy party leaders – have been angling to control the outfit in Raila's looming departure.
The party has been in an overdrive membership recruitment of members across the country. It is currently preparing to conduct grassroots elections.
Joho has been traversing the country including Raila's Nyanza backyard to position himself in the party.
“Raila was clear that every party is free to strengthen itself. Those activities only strengthen Azimio; they do not threaten the coalition,” said ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna.
Raila has led the ODM party since its formation in 2005. ODM is the anchor party in Azimio and boosts of having the second-highest number of elected leaders in the country.
The party controls Nyanza, Western, Coast, Nairobi, parts of Rift Valley and Northeastern.
Raila, despite his long absence—and the looming exit from local politics—has remained the fulcrum and the engine of the opposition whose slightest utterances trigger a political storm.
" Raila has a unique and rare ability to put together gatekeepers from different communities for formidable political alliances. He is aggressive and combative,” Munyui said.
These attributes have sustained him at the helm of the country’s politics for decades.
“Raila is an astute and strong politician. I don’t think there is any leader in Azimio or even in Kenya after President William Ruto, who possesses such attributes. I don’t see any strategy in Azimio post-Raila,” he said.
In a recent article published in a local daily, Makau Mutua, Raila's former campaign spokesperson, lifted the lid on a plot by some politicians in Azimio to sabotage Raila’s AU bid for their political survival.
Makau, a law professional at the State University of New York, said the group is opposed to Raila’s bid for fear of plunging into political oblivion.
“Some of Azimio’s key lieutenants have had second thoughts. Several have now come out to openly oppose his bid for the job…they can see their political deaths on the horizon,” he said.
Roots party leader George Wajackoya has been standing on the fence, even though he has been leaning towards Raila.
Political observer Mark Bichachi said Azimio, just like Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza, will either transform or disintegrate as has been the case since the advent of multiparty democracy.
“There are no factions in Azimio. What we are seeing is the nature of Kenyan politics where politicians baptise themselves with new names and titles in form of coalitions and parties,” he said.
The commentator said there is no point in Azimio remaining the same, especially after losing the elections.
“What is this expectation that Azimio should exist beyond now? On what basis should a politician want Azimio to continue existing?” Bichachi asked.