- It is understood there are ANC members who are hunting new parties
- The lot felt the decision was not good and that they were not exhaustively consulted
Image: PCS
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi recently struck a new political landscape after his party conceded to President William Ruto’s persuasion for a merger with UDA.
Unlike others in Kenya Kwanza who have refused to fold their parties, ANC has begun formal merger negotiations with the United Democratic Alliance.
“Let us be pound-wise not pound-foolish politically,” Mudavadi said as he urged Amani National Congress officials and members to be part of the bigger formation.
Among the reasons he canvassed for agreeing to the merger was it would not be practical for him to field candidates against the President’s party.
“Would it be fair if I am the Prime Cabinet Secretary and then sponsor a candidate to take on the person who appointed me to the position? It is a serious conflict of interest,” he said.
But the “Earthquake 2.0”, as members of his inner sanctum call it, has ignited sharp reactions, with observers seeing it as a huge political gamble on the part of the Foreign Affairs minister.
Some observers say the Prime CS's move could pay off in the end, saying they point to the levels to which he is trusted by President Ruto in his 2027 gameplan.
Olang' Sana, a political science and international relations professor at Maseno University, says Mudavadi’s game could pay off.
“He seems to have seen that his party will not make any other impact in future…looking at politics, he can trade it off,” he said.
The don’s take is that Mudavadi’s move is about what he gets now and not tomorrow.
“He doesn’t see any opportunity in ousting Ruto and therefore sees the position he holds can last 8 years. His question is about; What can I get now?
“Collectively, he may have made a mistake but as an individual, he has gained a lot and stands to gain more,” Olang explained.
ANC director for ICT Nathaniel Mong’are said they are optimistic the move will benefit the party and the ruling coalition.
”It will pay off just like the earthquake of 2022, which was a big gamble that paid off. The UDA, ANC merger is another earthquake in the making. It has a high chance of elevating the profile of ANC and Mudavadi,” he said.
For the proponents, the merged outfit would be stronger and thus would be better placed to manage as well as negotiate with other like-minded parties.
Even so, it is understood there are ANC members who are hunting new parties, having felt the decision is not good and that they were not exhaustively consulted.
The Star has also established that some MPs in UDA feel like decamping to other outfits within the Kenya Kwanza coalition following the move.
The general argument by the critics is that without his own party, Mudavadi could be rendered voiceless in negotiations for the national cake.
“There is not much Ruto cannot do with Mudavadi without the merger, but a merger will render Mudavadi hapless and probably dash his hopes of ever becoming a president,” political analyst Sam Omwenga said.
“Were Mudavadi wiser, he would stay put in ANC, play dumb around [DP Rigathi] Gachagua while trying to be his own man. Allowing himself to be played like a guitar and having the Presidency handed to him are things tales are made of,” he added.
National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula, his Senate counterpart Amason Kingi and several other big shots have declined to fold their parties in favour of a jumbo outfit.
Asked if the move by Mudavadi has set the pace for parties in Kenya Kwanza to fold, key Ford Kenya compatriots said a flat no.
Tongaren MP John Chikati said "…the decision of ANC is theirs, which Ford Kenya cannot meddle in. Ford Kenya will not fold, even if the others do. We will strengthen our party”.
The Ford Kenya Secretary General said his party would focus on bolstering its networks with an aim of bringing more people on board, including the disgruntled UDA and ANC members.
“What is happening in UDA may not be encouraging the members, especially where the DP is contradicting his boss [President Ruto]. Contradictions don’t make the party look good. We hope and pray for a stronger coalition,” Chikati said, indicating that several MPs seeking to join the Wetang’ula party had approached him.
Why Mudavadi?
It is viewed that with the call for Mt Kenya unity, the President is not assured of the region’s support and thus seems to have trained his guns on Western Kenya as he explores new voting blocs.
The imminent exit of ODM leader Raila Odinga, should he succeed in his quest for AU Commission chair, would leave Mudavadi as the senior, most experienced politician from the region.
In his political life, Mudavadi has been Vice President and is currently ranked number three in the pecking order in the Kenya Kwanza administration.
It is thus argued, more so by his backers, that the next position he can assume is that of Deputy President.
“The post he holds is the highest considering his age and stay in politics. He sees Ruto ruling for 10 years by which time he is also likely to be done politically,” Olang said.
Other political pundits observed that even as ANC seeks to merge with UDA, they need to take note of the growing dissent against the government.
They argue that the Gen Z movement may result in a new party that may destabilise the prevailing polity, to the chagrin of the likes of UDA and ANC.
“The agitations will give birth to a new political party,” Ben Ombima, a political mobiliser from Western, told the Star.
But UDA insiders exuded the confidence that the numbers that would result from the merger would be unbeatable.
“ANC has four million while UDA has about eight million members, bringing the new team to a membership of 12 million strong,” Mong’are said, in seeming reference to the parties’ circle of appeal and not actual registered members.
A team formed to chart the union is expected to generate a new brand identity for the party as well as discuss how to merge the membership.
The team is expected to also discuss how to treat the party structures and how to deal with the slogans.
A national delegates' conference will be convened to ratify the process even as each party resolved to engage their membership.