The anti-government protests and the raging public revolt against President William Ruto’s administration have put Azimio leader Raila Odinga in a complex political dilemma.
Just next February, Raila will be contesting to be the African Union Commission chairperson – a top continental job that elevates him to the same level as heads of state.
Some observers say he desperately needs the AUC job to firm up his legacy despite his public display of confidence that it is not a matter of life and death.
Others say that he may have allowed fate to take its course without compromising his ideals.
Critically, the opposition leader needs the Kenya Kwanza support including official nomination, campaigns and facilitation.
Yet, Raila is expected to speak out against excesses by the same government and defend the people, a decades-long legacy he has championed.
Analysts say he is walking a political tightrope on whether or not to defend the besieged government whose support he desperately needs for his AUC job bid.
On the other hand, Raila is reportedly worried that if he keeps quiet, his long-standing social justice credentials will go down the drain in the wake of reports of the government’s alleged ruthless clampdown on peaceful protesters.
Either way, he is in a political dilemma he must cautiously navigate in the coming months ahead of the February 2025 continental poll.
Former Cabinet Minister Franklin Bett said Raila is facing a big headache balancing his AUC job bid and pressure to speak out against state excesses.
“It is clear that Raila needs government support to win the job he is looking for while at the same time facing pressure from the people to defend them. It is a delicate balance for a job seeker," he said.
“Raila will always find a way of juggling the two while keeping an eye on the ball."
The ODM leader is banking on Ruto to spearhead his campaigns across the continent and the goodwill of the Kenya Kwanza government to facilitate the process.
Ruto has toured several African countries, engaging his counterparts on Raila's candidacy, winning the support of countries like Algeria and Ghana besides Eastern African nations.
Raila has also intensified his diplomatic efforts, meeting some heads of state on his campaign trail to seek their support for his bid.
On Thursday, he was in South Sudan where he met President Salva Kiir who is also the chairperson of the East African Community.
" Your support and commitment to rallying the entire EAC block behind my AUC chair candidacy are greatly appreciated," Raila said of Kiir after the meeting in Juba.
Abandoning Gen Z
In the wake of the Generation Z protests against the government, the Azimio leader is increasingly worried that his position as the country’s foremost social justice defender is under threat from the young people.
But some of his allies say Raila does not need to hit the streets for Kenyans to see that he is defending them, saying he can opt for diplomatic ways to push for their issues behind the scenes.
Saboti MP Calen Amisi said Raila has done a lot for the country and needs to “relax’’ and not necessarily be used by some politicians as a “human shield".
The lawmaker who was responding to reports by ODM party that it will initiate the recall of rebel MPs who voted for the Finance Bill, 2024 insisted that Raila’s push for a social justice course is still steadfast.
“Somebody should tell ODM to avoid exposing Baba. Generation Z told him to relax. Why are you forcing him on press conferences and using him as a human shield? Let's style up. Raila does not deserve another blunder," Amisi said.
There have been concerns that Generation Z has stirred the country’s political landscape and threatens to dwarf the credentials of opposition linchpins who have fought for the country for decades.
Last week, Raila hinted that he would not join the protests called by the young generation against the government, saying Gen Zs had asked him to keep off.
“I am still tied, but I will speak, only when am allowed, when the young people tell me they are through then I will talk," Raila said during a funeral in Siaya amid applause from the young people.
Following the wave of protests, he heaped praise on the young generation for leading the protests in a deliberate move not to be seen to have abandoned them.
A young lady, in particular, caught his eye following her riveting message to the Azimio boss to sit back and watch them take over from where he left off in the fight for their rights.
"Agwambo (Raila), this is a message don't come, please stay at home. We saw your efforts and what you have done to Kenya, now let us fight for our rights. We miss you but don't come outside, we shall represent you," the lady said in a video which has since gone viral.
Raila acknowledged the message, stating that he was proud of the young lady and the courage she and her colleagues exemplified.
"I’m a very proud father today! Hongera sana to the young lady and all those who bravely stood up for their rights!" he said.
Despite lacking a structured leadership, the youthful protesters have shaken the Kenya Kwanza government to the core, forcing President Ruto to back down on his radical tax policies by rejecting the Finance Bill.
The head of state has promised a radical response to the issues raised, including a freeze on employment, sweeping austerity measures and looming reorganisation of government.
Traditionally, massive protests, mainly led by the opposition, never yielded much concessions from the government for the public good, except instanced where key political figures have managed to win big on alleged “personal dividends’’.
Activist Boniface Mwangi, one of the alleged organisers of protests against the government, defended Raila for missing the ongoing demonstrations across the country.
He said age had caught up with the ODM lead and that he (Raila) is also seeking to be the next AU Commission chairperson.
“Raila is unemployed, is looking for a job at the AU so he is busy canvassing to get the seat. Raila is also old. He has done this for over 40 years. We should be ashamed of ourselves for demanding more from Raila. He has given his best,” he said.
Mwangi added that it is the civic duty of all citizens to hold their leaders accountable.
“If the Opposition has let us down, it is because they have no leader,” Mwangi said, lifting the lid on the feeling within the young generation about leading from the front in the absence of democratic champions.
Kenya is racing against time to officially nominate Raila for the AUC job after the government missed its June 30 deadline to submit its credentials.
It has now emerged that Kenya could submit his candidacy for the continent’s top job by mid-July, after moving fast to steady the process that was in limbo over budgetary and commitment concerns.
Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei chaired the first technical committee comprising the government and Raila’s teams after a long lull that triggered concerns.
"The government is firm in support of this bid," Sing’oei said after the meeting on Monday.
There are indications that Raila is keen to secure the government’s official nomination, opting to be measured on his remarks against the Kenya Kwanza administration.
Political risk analyst Dismus Mokua said the government has shown commitment to nominate Raila for the AUC top job.
“There is no doubt on the government’s focus in nominating and mobilising support for the former prime minister because he has massive credentials that work in his favour," he said.
There are concerns that Generation Z appears to have stolen the thunder from key opposition figures that have previously mobilised protests against the government, including Raila.
After the 2017 general elections, the Azimio leader engineered countrywide protests after successfully petition against Uhuru Kenyatta’s presidential victory. However, despite Kenyans suffering huge casualties, he managed to broker a handshake with his nemesis in 2018.
The political deal, which resulted in a truce of hostilities, was blamed for allegedly shielding President Uhuru from heavy public scrutiny even as it triggered an acrimonious split between Kenyatta and Ruto, the deputy president then.
Another wave of protests that Raila called against Ruto’s administration last year to put pressure on the government over the high cost of living, relatively pushed Ruto further but never forced him to rescind his policies.
In fact, a bullish Ruto then insisted that he had put in place measures to lower the cost of living, including the provision of subsidised fertilisers to farmers and investing in production, as a long-term strategy to address then spiralling food prices.
The lowering of the prices of Unga from a high of Sh250 to an average of Sh100 in the recent past was the President's most successful masterstroke that forced Azimio off the streets despite murmurs about the cost of fuel.
On Wednesday, Raila called for respect for the rights of Kenyans to protest and picket while condemning the destruction of property.
In a carefully worded statement, he claimed that goons had hijacked what had started as peaceful protests by Gen Z, telling the state to crack down on the perpetrators of mayhem and violence on innocent Kenyans.
"I extend deep sympathy to the families who've suffered at the hands of looters posing as Gen Z protestors, innocent people who've seen their business premises broken into, their products looted and who now face the reality of being worse off than before the protests," he said in a statement.