The fall of the Finance Bill, 2024 and the ensuing events have put President William Ruto in a situation that mirrors Mwai Kibaki’s post-2005 referendum predicament.
The former third president was forced to initiate a radical purge of the cabinet after losing the highly charged referendum that the opposition won by a comfortable margin.
Just like the referendum was seen as a vote of no confidence on Kibaki, President Ruto has found himself in the same precarious position amid growing pressure to reorganise his government.
A group of Generation Z youths have pushed the president to rescind some of his policies, demanded radical reforms and rejected his call for national dialogue insisting ''Ruto must go''.
When the government lost the 2005 vote, many saw it as a referendum on the presidency, wondering how the President would manage the remaining two years of his first term.
He responded swiftly, sacking those in his Cabinet who had gone against the government on the vote.
The decision was seen as a bold move given that many of them were the very senior political figures who had fought tooth and nail with him to oust Kanu in 2002.
"Following the results of the referendum, it has become necessary for me, as the President of the Republic, to re-organise my Government to make it more cohesive and better able to serve the people of Kenya," Kibaki said in a terse statement broadcast on radio and television on November 24, 2005.
Days after losing the referendum, Kibaki kicked out rebels from his cabinet including Raila Odinga(then LDP leader) as he moved to consolidate his government after the humiliating defeat.
Raila was then serving as the minister for Roads and Public Works and was seen as the leader of the rebel ministers in their arrangement that birthed ODM.
Other influential politicians ejected were Ministers Kalonzo Musyoka (Environment), Peter Anyang Nyong'o(Planning) and Chris Murungaru(Transport).
Others were Ochillo Ayacko, William ole Ntimama, Najib Balala and Linah Jebii.
Most big guns had been considered untouchable given their role in the Narc campaigns that delivered victory to Kibaki in the 2002 general election.
Kibaki had to cobble up a government of national unity, tapping in key opposition MPs to form an expanded cabinet to stabilise the country after the humiliating defeat.
Kibaki said then that he had consulted widely in an "effort to reconstitute a cabinet which is cohesive, balanced, efficient and better placed to deliver services to Kenyans."
The rejection of the Finance Bill, 2024 has been perceived to mean a vote of no confidence on the Kenya Kwanza administration especially after President Ruto was forced to climb down on his tax measures.
Siaya Governor James Orengo has asked Ruto to resign, arguing that there is too much public anger against the Kenya Kwanza government.
“If Ruto was listening to the mood of Kenyans. Talking to him will not resolve anything; there is too much anger against the Kenya Kwanza administration. If he is truly a Christian, he should just resign with this entire government,” Orengo said on July 1.
The rejection of the tax measures has been widely seen as a significant blow to the president, forcing him back to the drawing board amid reports that a government of national unity is in the offing.
Unlike in the 2005 scenario when Kibaki had faced a resounding rejection at the ballot, Ruto is walking an even tighter rope amid a youth revolt.
The President's deputy Rigathi Gachagua has criticised the government's policies and called on his boss to listen to the people and the ''ground'', giving credence to a widening rift.
Ruto’s move to extend an olive branch to opposition leaders has been seen as a plan to use some of them to stabilise the country after weeks of Generation Z protests.
Raila is also at the centre of the country’s crossroads- this time playing a key role to support the government unlike in 2005 when he consolidated himself outside government.
The President has hinted at plans for a “broad-based political arrangement’’ to chart the country’s future from the current situation.
The proposal, it is believed, could birth a government of national unity similar to Kibaki's 2005 and the Grand Coalition of 2008 with Raila a factor in both.
Ahead of the 2005 referendum, Kibaki brought on board former Ford People leader Simon Nyachae and named him Energy Minister as he faced a lot of opposition within the cabinet.
Now, Ruto is reaching out to Raila in a bid to fend off rebellion and contain public pressure.
Before his death, Nyachae opened up on how he twice came to the rescue of Kibaki’s presidency.
Writing in his autobiography "Walking through the Corridors of Service’’ Nyachae reveals how he helped came to the help of Kibaki when Raila’s team hatched a vote of no confidence on the government.
“If the vote carried the day, it would mean that the president either resigns or dissolves parliament, a move that was likely to plunge the country into chaos,’’ Nyachae writes.
“So the president suggested a government of national unity involving opposition politicians to avoid the impending catastrophe.’’
This saw the return of Nyachae to reinforce President Kibaki in the face of strong opposition against the proposed constitutional changes.
The dispute 2007 presidential election saw the formation of the Grand Coalition Government in which Raila served as Prime Minister.
Raila had latched on to the 2005 referendum victory to stir the country's political scene through his ODM party, forcing a sharing of power with Kibaki.
The government steadied the country after deadly clashes that claimed many lives and also uprooted thousands from their homes.