Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka is aggressively pushing back against the calls for talks with President William Ruto, stamping his authority as the country's main opposition leader.
Kalonzo, a former vice president during the Mwai Kibaki administration, is taking no prisoners and has come out strongly to oppose a push to have Azimio enter into talks with Ruto.
On Wednesday, Raila's ODM party endorsed his plans to enter into structured dialogue with the Kenya Kwanza administration.
The planned national multi-sectoral forum is expected to birth the government of national unity, with a broad based arrangement tipped to steady the country in the wake of anti-government protests.
Kalonzo has distanced himself from such an arrangement, insisting that the Ruto administration has fallen out of favour with Kenyans and should resign to pave the way for a snap election.
On Wednesday, he received hostility after goons stormed Jaramogi Oginga Odinga Foundation and disrupted his press briefing moments after Raila and his troops left.
The opposition leaders were holding an Azimio la Umoja parliamentary group meeting to deliberate on the calls for a national dialogue.
However, the ODM leader is said to have to excused himself and did not join Kalonzo and other Azimio leaders at the arborted press briefing.
It emerged that the Wiper chief had led a section of Azimio big guns in denouncing talks with the head of state and instead insisted on the resignation of the Ruto administration.
Kalonzo could not read the statement after the goons disrupted him but later released it highlighting resolutions from the PG meeting.
Key among the resolutions was that the coalition would not be part of the proposed broad-based government mooted by President Ruto.
"For the avoidance of doubt, the Azimio-OKA coalition will not be part of the proposed broad-based or any other government with the Kenya Kwanza coalition," Azimio said in the statement.
Analysts now say that Raila's possible deal with Ruto could see the two share power in the expected arrangement to be unveiled after the national dialogue.
Kalonzo's advisers see the ODM chief's crossover as an opportunity for him to consolidate the opposition as the de facto leader ahead of the 2027 general election.
However, there are questions whether he has the wherewithal to galvanise the opposition and inherit parts of Raila's bases.
President Ruto is under pressure after weeks of sustained protests by the country's youth, with critics pushing him to undertake more reforms despite dissolving his Cabinet and giving in to a raft of other demands.
Kathiani MP Robert Mbio said Kalonzo has the capacity and gravitas to continue leading the opposition in the absence of Raila, insisting the Wiper boss will not be forced into government.
"As Wiper, we have agreed that we shall continue to fight for the people. The country is raging and Kenyans are tired with this Ruto administration. We will not make a mistake to legitimise this regime by working with it," Mbui said.
The National Assembly deputy Minority leader insisted that Kalonzo will stand firm to defend the public against excesses by a government that has lost popularity among Kenyans.
The Wiper leader is likely to work with some opposition figures who have refused Ruto's dialogue calls as part of his plans to rejuvenate Azimio.
Other leaders working with Kalonzo include DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa, Martha Karua(Narc Kenya), Jeremiah Kioni(Jubilee) and Usawa Kwa Wote boss Mwangi Wa Iria.
Insiders say the exit of Raila does not leave a leadership vacuum in Azimio, either does it kill opposition.
"Azimio is solid and strong, the exit of ODM by way of working with the government does not shake the opposition in any way, we shall soldier on," Kitui Central MP Makali Mulu.
Mulu, a key Kalonzo ally, said the Wiper leaader is ready and prepared to take charge of the opposition and stand with the people against "excesses by the Ruto regime".
Kalonzo is playing hardball against the push for a unity government over fears that joining the Kenya Kwanza administration would hurt his 2027 ambitions.
It has emerged that his camp is keen to avoid repeating Azimio leader Raila Odinga’s past political mistakes that reportedly cost him the presidency.
Raila had 2018 entered a political deal with President Uhuru Kenyatta in what was famously referred to as the handshake that supported the Jubilee government.
He is said to have inherited a massive baggage that choked his chances of succeeding Uhuru and made him unpopular among Kenyans.
Between 2018 and 2022, Raila was Uhuru's chief adviser and defender of government in the face of resistance from Kenyans over its punitive taxes and high cost of living.
The ODM leader worked with Uhuru when he had fallen out with Deputy President Ruto (now president) with the hope he would be anointed his heir.
During the campaigns, Raila was blamed for the Jubilee ills and underperformance, forcing him into a tight spot to defend himself as Ruto appeared to enjoy the goodwill of Kenyans.
Insiders say that Kalonzo sees a better chance to beat Ruto in 2027 if he remains outside government and builds the Azimio coalition into a bigger movement beyond his strongholds.
There is also a strong hope in Kalonzo’s camp that the restive Generation Zoomers (Gen Z) would easily back the Wiper leader if he remains firm.
Kitui Senator Enock Wambua, a key ally of the Wiper leader, said the party position is that they will neither not join the government nor enter into dialogue with it.
“The party has been unequivocal on the issue of dialogue with President Ruto. Calls for dialogue are unwise, ill-timed and in bad faith. This is the party’s stated position and it has not been vacated," Wambua said.
Kalonzo vied for president in 2007 but lost to Mwai Kibaki, coming a distant third behind Raila. He would later be named VP in the grand coalition government mediated after a post-election violence.
He supported Raila's presidential bids in 2013, 2017 and 2022, but he is keen on taking a second stab at the presidency in 2027.
“We advised Kalonzo to stay away from Ruto. Working with him is bad for his future politics. The President must be left alone, that is why we are not boarding the government of national unity train," Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo said.
The Kalonzo ally said the position has since been ratified by the Wiper National Executive Council, the party’s highest decision making organ.
“Joining President Ruto defies logic. He is facing a lot of challenges with his deputy and now Gen Zs. How do you heal such a government? We cannot join such a government," Maanzo, a senior lawyer in Kalonzo’s inner circle, said.
Wiper’s hardline position against a unity government comes at a time when there is a feeling in Azimio that Raila will not participate in the 2027 presidential elections because of his advanced age.
He is enjoying the backing of President Ruto in his bid for the African Union Commission chairperson job ahead of the February 2025 poll.
With Raila’s eyes on the AUC job, there is hope in Wiper that Kalonzo would call the shots as the biggest opposition leader.
Political analyst Alexander Nyamboga said the Wiper boss is walking a tightrope with wide but challenging options beset with complications.
He argued that while Kalonzo is keen on remaining within the opposition fold to consolidate his 2027 support, he does not appear a formidable force to take on Ruto.
“Either way he is doomed unless he becomes a beneficiary of the Gen Z revolution to mount a formidable challenge. Raila’s exit would leave a huge political void in the opposition that Kalonzo may not fill at the moment," he added.