- Experts say the Raila had to be part of local solution to convince the continent on his bid.
- Ruto on Wednesday named Raila key men into his government.
Image: RAILA ODINGA/X
Opposition chief Raila Odinga was literally caught in a complex delicate balancing act that is believed informed his political deal with President William Ruto.
The Azimio leader who is a front runner for the coveted Africa Union Commission (AUC) had to weigh the happenings locally and the impact on his continental interests.
Raila is in the race for the African Union Commission chairperson – a top continental job that elevates him to the same level as heads of state.
The position amongst other require one to foster peace and political stability in the member countries.
The AU Commission chairperson is a big post that elevates the holder to a near head of state.
The occupant of that office is a key player in major international happenings, including elections, conflicts and development, not only in Africa but globally.
Africa countries are known for constant internal conflicts with some ending in regime change as was the case with Gabon in 2023 where the military took over power.
It would therefore be illogical for the former Prime Minister to present himself to the continent as a man capable of addressing conflicts in the region when his home country is burning.
Experts believe Azimio leader's silence during the local could have punctured his AUC dream and the continent could view him as a man unable to even help his country overcome a crisis.
International Relations expert Dr. Cavince Adhere agrees that a stable Kenya would have made sense to African heads that Raila can be relied on to solve conflicts in the continent.
Adhere maintained for Raila to convince the world that he was not part of the protests, he had to play crucial role in bringing the truce locally.
“What this Gen Zs are pushing for is akin to what he (Raila) has been pushing for in the past, the demonstrations we had in Kenya last year were led by him and what we are seeing Gen Zs are agitating for is like what he was advocating,” Adhere told the Star on phone.
“We have seen instances where he (Raila) has come out and say Gen Zs have told him to stay at home and let them finish the task, that can send conflicting messages to the government of the day that perhaps he (Raila) is silently supporting or working with this Gen Zs.”
“It would be good for Raila to clear his name of any involvement in this kind of scenario that is uncomfortable to the government.”
While Adhere agrees Raila was to help Ruto out of situation for own survival on the continental stage, he also opined that the opposition chief also needed blessings of the state for his bid.
“Raila needed a total support of the government headed by Ruto to make a showing in the list of people to be considered in that list,” he said.
“To an extend this thing is double edged, it demonstrates that he is someone who is able to contribute to solutions of conflict.”
“In the last four regime we have seen him coming through as the main pacifier of the conflict scenario. To that extent we can say that Raila is the guy who comes on the table and the conflict sort of dies.”
Makueni senator Dan Maanzo on Friday told the Star that Raila’s move had more to do with his AU survival.
“He was already facing fierce competition and had to use to get into a deal with the government to secure support for his bid as well convince the continent that he will be part of the solution,” Maanzo told the Star.
Ruto on Wednesday named ODM’s Hassan Joho (Mining, Blue Economy), Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives), John Mbadi (National Treasury) and Opiyo Wandayi (Energy and Petroleum) to his expanded cabinet.
Since allowing his team of trusted lieutenants to join Ruto’s cabinet there has been a near return to normalcy giving hope for political stability.
On Thursday, the President received warm reception in Mombasa - one of the demonstration hotspots in the last one month.
Joho who had served as an MP and two-term governor hails from the coastal county.
For his bid, Raila also needed Kenya Kwanza support including official nomination, campaigns and facilitation.
The government has already set up an elaborate secretariat as it goes flat out to support Odinga’s bid for the African Union Commission chair.
The Secretariat is charged with the day-to-day coordination of all Raila’s campaign activities.
This is even as Raila stepped up his charm offensive for the top continental job almost seven months to the key vote.
The former Prime Minister, who is not leaving anything to chance, has lined up a number of engagements, including with select envoys to bolster his Africa Union Commission chairmanship bid.
Those who sit in Raila’s AUC campaigns strategy team include Kenya’s former ambassador to the US Elkanah Odembo, Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) former Executive Director Mahboub Maalim, ambassador Anthony Okara, professor Makau Mutua and ex-Nyeri Deputy Governor Caroline Karugu.
Big international players, including former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, are also involved in wooing their regions in Raila's favour.
According to Raila, other countries that have accepted to support his bid are Tanzania, Uganda, South Sudan, Guinea Bissau and Angola.
Raila is in a race with two other candidates from the Eastern block.
The two are Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs minister Mahmoud Youssouf and Somalia’s former deputy prime minister and current member of the Federal Parliament Fawzia Yusuf.
The elections to find the next occupant at the AU top job will take place in February 2025, when Chad's Moussa Faki, the current chairperson, exits after his two-term tenure.
In the polls, chairmanship is ringfenced for the Eastern Africa region, while Northern Africa will front the vice chairperson.