Kenya’s diplomatic prowess will be tested to the limit as the government mounts a continent-wide campaign for former Prime Minister Raila Odinga in his quest to be the next chairman of the African Union Commission.
The vote could also be seen as a referendum on President William Ruto's influence in the region as he pushes for Raila — his newfound political soulmate.
The deadline for nominations lapsed on Tuesday, narrowing down the race and opening an avenue for a likely Raila victory.
At the time of going to press, only Raila and Djibouti’s Mahmoud Ali Youssouf had submitted their nomination papers.
Mauritius was also reported to have complied with the deadline but the Star could not independently confirm.
However, Somalia’s Fawzia Adam and Seychellois contender Vincent Meriton dropped out from the February 2025 race.
The poll could be a 2020 rematch between Kenya and Djibouti when the two countries locked horns for the position of non-permanent member of United Nations Security Council.
Despite Kenya securing the endorsement of the AU at the time, Djibouti continued to campaign for the seat and went flat out to oppose Kenya to the end. It lost to Nairobi.
Questions are now being raised about whether or not Djibouti has a vendetta against Kenya.
Djibouti is a Horn of Africa country that is a mostly speaks French and Arabic, with a GDP of about $3.515 billion, according to 2022 statistics.
This is a drop in the ocean compared Kenya, a regional powerhouse with a GDP of $113.4 billion.
Foreign Affairs PS Korir Singo'ei on July 29 confirmed the government had presented the requisite documentation of Kenya's nominee for chairmanship to the AU Dean of Eastern Region.
"Under the authority of the Government of Kenya and as per the Statutes and Rules of the African Union Commission, we have today formally submitted requisite documentation of Kenya's nominee for the Chairmanship of African Union, HE Raila Amolo Odinga, to the Dean of Eastern Region, HE Dharmraj Busgeeth, Ambassador of Mauritius," Singo'ei said on X.
The latest development clears the air on the government's commitment to Raila's candidature.
The submission of candidature happened after President Ruto nominated some of Raila's allies into the Cabinet in what was seen as a political pact between the two.
Present during the submission of the bid was Raila's close ally Makau Mutua and Kenya's ambassador to Addis Ababa George Orina.
The government formed a joint campaign secretariat to help Raila in his bid two months ago.
The secretariat brings together strategy and campaign teams from Raila's camp and the government's side.
The secretariat is domiciled at the Railways Building that houses the office of the Prime Cabinet Secretary and CS for Foreign Affairs Musalia Mudavadi.
President Ruto’s government has promised to pull out all the stops to ensure Raila secures the highly coveted seat that would catapult him to the stature of head of state.
Diplomatic experts are raising questions on why Kenya and Djibouti always find themselves at loggerheads especially on the diplomatic front.
While some diplomats do not rule a possible Djibouti vendetta with Nairobi, some experts state that every country is free to pursue its interests.
International affairs expert Calvince Adhere told the Star that the coincidence must not be seen to suggest that Djibouti has any beef with Kenya.
“Every country has a right to pursue its strategic interests and that is the case for Kenya and Djibouti. It is not that one doesn’t like the other; you don’t have to like each other,” Adhere told the Star on phone.
The diplomacy expert, however, added that it would have been good if the Eastern block rallied behind a joint candidate as Faki’s successor.
“What is critical is that it would have been good for Eastern Africa countries to speak with one voice because it is their turn to produce the chairperson. It would have been good to see a more united candidature,” he said.
Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi, who is an international relations PhD student at University of Nairobi, agrees that there seems to be more than meets the eye in the Nairobi-Djibouti rivalry.
“We need to look at ourselves as a country, evaluate keenly. Whenever we try to make a move internationally, we are countered by Djibouti. Is it Djibouti alone or is somebody pushing them to do a counterattack?” Mwangangi said.
“There is that possibility that somebody – African continental player or global player - could be trying to use Djibouti to check Kenya when it comes to foreign affairs.
“That could be used to slow down Kenya’s global standing and even the country’s national interest. You can’t rule it out.”
The AU Commission chairperson is a big post that elevates the holder to the status of almost head of state.
The office holder is a key player in major international happenings, including elections, conflicts and development not only in Africa but globally.
Big international players, including ex-Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, were involved in mediating the post-election row between Ruto and Raila.
According to Adhere, Nairobi might easily trounce opponents given the quality of the candidate it is fronting for the continental contest.
“He (Raila) has also served as Prime Minister of Kenya from 2008 to 2013. Kenya is fronting a candidate who is a Pan-Africanist,” Adhere said.
Like Raila, Faki has served as Cabinet Minister and Prime Minister in the Djibouti government.
Raila has served in a number of critical positions in a career spanning more than 40 years.
In addition to having been an MP, he held important ministerial portfolios including Energy, Roads, and Public Works and Housing between 2001 and 2005.
According to the regional rotation that dictates 2025 elections, North Africa will submit male and female candidates for the role of deputy chairperson.
The remaining three regions - Central, Southern and Western – will produce at least two candidates (male and female) for the six portfolios of commissioners.
Only names of candidates submitted by the region will be considered in the pre-selection process undertaken by the panel of eminent Africans.
The panel composed of five personalities, one per region, was appointed in February to oversee the pre-selection of candidatures for the eight positions.