Speculation is rife that Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka are cobbling a political formation for the 2027 general elections.
The high-level talks spearheaded by, among others, President Uhuru Kenyatta's allies, are said to be gaining momentum by the day, bringing the numbers in play into sharp focus.
Recent press reports quoted Kathiani MP Robert Mbui confirming the engagements between the Kamba community and the Mt Kenya people.
DAP Kenya's Eugene Wamalwa is also in the mix.
The Kalonzo ally said they were seeking an alliance that they would use to face President William Ruto.
On the other hand, President Ruto is teaming up with ODM leader Raila Odinga in what could culminate into a political alliance.
The two are likely to work together in the next election, from the recent appointments to what they call a broad-based Cabinet.
Ruto also has former ANC party leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetang'ula on his side, shoring up his numbers and cementing the Western bloc.
The focus, therefore, is on the votes each side would pull - if the alliances stand until the next general elections.
An analysis of the IEBC voter register as of 2022 shows Ruto and Raila's team enjoy a head-start, if the recent warm receptions at once-hostile constituencies are anything to go by.
From the numbers, Ruto may pull 12-million strong should the union with Raila net close to 100 per cent support.
Should the Kalonzo-Gachagua axis come to fruition, as indicated by the Wiper compatriots, they start from the 7.1 million votes of Ukambani, Upper Eastern and Mt Kenya.
Pundits thus hold that Ruto and Raila working together is not only a strong combination for 2027, but can topple Gachagua.
“Raila's numbers combined with President Ruto's numbers are so significant that they can easily have Rigathi impeached in the National Assembly and the Senate,” political analyst Javas Bigambo said.
“These numbers are likely to inform a new coalition or alliance by 2027,” he added.
In taking Raila's men on board, Ruto’s stakes in Nyanza and Coast are likely to go up; coming at a time he appears to have lost the centre – Mt Kenya.
Although Gachagua has played down a rift between him and his boss, his grumbling about an ongoing state crackdown targeting key allies, speaks volumes.
It wouldn't be a surprise if he finally exits the Ruto axis, in as much as he may not throw his hat in the ring of the presidential race.
It is understood that Raila may not take another stab at the presidency if he secures the AU Commission chair job.
Political observers say “his chances of contesting the presidency in 2027 are gradually shrinking, to near nil”.
Charles Nyambuga, a political commentator from Maseno University, also holds that Raila is not going to stand for election in 2027.
“If he has found the AU post, that will be his pound of flesh. [Jubilee chairman Jeremiah] Kioni and the likes are not going to stick together. We are likely to see a different formation coming up ahead of 2027, where there will be a lot of mingling and co-mingling of people who were otherwise political rivals,” he said.
As such, the constituency Raila commands would be up for grabs and he is said to have better chances with Ruto in his corner.
“If Raila were to join Rigathi and Kalonzo in 2027, it would be catastrophic for Ruto. But the two do not have anything to offer Raila more than Ruto,” Bigambo said.
For the pundits, Raila commands an undeniably loyal critical mass of followers whose support is crucial and significant for Ruto's reelection bid.
“This means that it is political capital that Ruto cannot afford to lose,” he stated.
Kenya’s election is largely shaped along regional preferences.
Rift Valley, which Ruto commands, has a potential 5.7 million votes.
Minus Nakuru’s numbers (1,054,856) - which is metropolitan - the other counties bring 4.7 million voters to the Ruto-Raila basket.
Western, which the President is believed to be keen on sealing, especially after the appointment of Wycliffe Oparanya as Cooperatives CS, has 2.2 million voters.
Raila’s Nyanza backyard had 3.1 million voters on the IEBC roll, putting him at an advantaged position should the region back him to the last man.
Nyambuga said, “This thing they always talk about – the Western alliance might come to fruition. Kalonzo might be the one who will go with the Eastern side while Ruto remains with the Western side.”
“President Ruto has lost the centre (Mt Kenya), he now has to play ball with Raila to get his base as he sends the ODM leader to the AU.”
The Coast, which largely supports Raila and where the President is observed to have made inroads, has 1.9 million voters, which could be a major boost for Ruto.
Mt Kenya had 3.1 million voters as of the 2022 general election whereas Lower Eastern – best known as Ukambani, had 1.6 million.
Mt Kenya comprises Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Muranga and Kiambu.
Upper Eastern, which covers Meru, Embu and Tharaka counties, had 1.3 million voters in 2022.
Nairobi, which is also largely a metropolitan area, had 2.4 million voters while Northeastern had 882,677.
Pundits hold that Kalonzo commands a following at the Coast and may eat into the Ruto-Raila numbers, while Nairobi and counties bordering the metropolis like Kajiado are likely to go 50:50, same as Nakuru.
For his allies, the marriage will not last.
Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo described the collaboration as a ‘brief come we stay’.
“They won’t last till 2027. Raila will seek to run. He will abandon the AU post. He cannot afford to miss the fray,” the Senator said.
The Gen Z factor might also come into play, as KNBS data shows that come 2027, about eight million young Kenyans will be of voting age.
The category accounts for a majority of the young people, who have been agitating for change, in what is now publicly known as Gen Z protests.
Observers point out that should they back a candidate, this may upset the status quo.
It is argued that the President’s move to name Raila’s allies in Cabinet eased the resistance against his administration.
Last Thursday, the demos, which were initially reported across the country, were only witnessed in Nairobi.
The tough stance and anger that characterised the onset of the protests in June has seemingly thawed and the grand reception President Ruto has received in areas that were previously hostile is telling.