The political dalliance between President William Ruto and ODM boss Raila Odinga could puncture DP Rigathi Gachagua’s ambitions despite enhancing his grip as the Mt Kenya kingpin.
Gachagua hopes to succeed President Ruto when he retires in 2032-if he is reelected in 2027- but faces major hurdles including the country's fast-changing political dynamics.
There are signals that President Ruto could drop Gachagua, even in the 2027 reelection bid, with Raila's influence in government further cementing the alleged isolation plan.
The DP is also battling infighting within his Mount Kenya heartland as some of the region’s bigwigs question his leadership and doubt his regional kingship standing.
A meeting is in the offing bringing together some of Gachagua's critics from his Mount Kenya base to reportedly design the region's direction.
Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri who is also the leader of The Service Party- which is a member of the Kenya Kwanza alliance-is leaving the anti-Gachagua troops for a retreat in the coming days.
The former Cabinet Secretary said that "politicians who believe in genuine and honest Mount Kenya unity will soon congregate for a retreat in Naivasha or Mombasa" to chart the way forward.
Gachagua had recently branded Kiunjuri a traitor while the MP has claimed the DP is a dictator.
"There is nothing that will stop us from coming together against what is not useful for us as a region. 69 out of 75 elected leaders cannot say the same thing about you for nothing, it is for a genuine reason," Kiunjuri said.
There are fears that the regional squabbles could divide Mount Kenya ahead of the 2027 polls, reduce its bargaining power and therefore hand Ruto more running mate options.
Some analysts argue that since Ruto struck a deal with Raila, Gachagua’s fortunes in Mount Kenya have improved and cemented his standing as the region’s political kingpin.
However, during last week’s joint tour of the region, President Ruto did not face any hostility as Gachagua used the opportunity to diffuse tensions and rally the region behind Kenya Kwanza.
Mount Kenya-based political analyst Mwangi Muriuki warned that Gachagua is standing on shaky political ground with an uncertain future following the Ruto-Raila deal.
“When you critically analyse the politics of Mount Kenya, you would realise that while Gachagua is the region’s senior-most political leader, he is not the de facto kingpin, many people don’t listen to him," Muriuki said.
Muriuki argues that Uhuru’s shadow looms large in the region with some politicians still loyal to him despite retiring as the country’s president in 2022.
“That is why Gachagua has insisted that he will defend President Kenyatta against any political attacks so that he can win over him and reduce the antagonism that he faces," he said.
In an interview with Mount Kenya vernacular radio stations last week, Gachagua said he would not allow any politician to undermine Uhuru, admitting that they thawed their relationship.
Ahead of the 2022 general election, Mount Kenya region dumped then-President Uhuru Kenyatta and threw their weight behind Ruto.
Ruto was swept to power mainly by 10 counties in the Mt Kenya region, which contributed nearly two-thirds of the total votes he secured to succeed Uhuru.
Mt Kenya region is one of the regions that until recently held the key to President Ruto’s grip on power, but the dynamics have changed following the formation of a broad-based government.
Muriithi Mutwiri, a political analyst, opines that while Raila’s entry into government will drive Mount Kenya behind Gachagua, it will also puncture his political ambitions.
“Yes, we could say that Gachagua is using the handshake to rally Mount Kenya behind him, but again the partnership is driving fatal nails into his political coffin because now Ruto has more options for running mate," he argued.
Mutwiri said Ruto could consider cobbling a political machine with Raila’s ODM party on which he would seek reelection with his running-mate coming from either Western Kenya or Nyanza.
“Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi is the man to watch from Western and possibly maybe Governor Gladys Wanga from Nyanza because a political deal with ODM would sink Gachagua completely," he said.
Ruto is working with Raila after he picked some ODM politicians as members of his broad-based Cabinet following weeks of anti-government protests by the country’s young people.
They include Hassan Joho (Mining and Blue Economy), Wycliffe Oparanya(Cooperatives), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy and Petroleum) and John Mbadi (National Treasury).
Political analysts have projected that the Ruto-Raila deal could morph into a solid political partnership likely to complicate Gachagua’s 2027 options.
Insiders in Gachagua’s camp claim that he could even run for president in 2027 if he is dropped by Ruto as a running mate.
Gachagua is a member of the UDA party where he also serves as the deputy leader but should plans to isolate him in 2027 escalate, he could ship out and run on a different party.
However, this is one of the options that Gachagua’s strategists are looking at to enhance his fortunes amid reports of a fallout with Ruto and the entry of Raila in the political mix.
A politician from the Mount Kenya region allied to Gachagua's axis said the DP is not "in slumber".
"We are looking at all options on the table but hope that all will go well in Kenya Kwanza in the 2027 polls," the MP who sought anonymity told the Star.
Ruto and Gachagua are said to have irredeemably fallen out with those aware of this claiming that they decided to team up after recent anti-government protests threatened the government.
Gachagua had claimed that the protests by Gen Z were fired up by the government’s failure to listen to the “ground" and condescending attitude of top officials and allied politicians.