- In terms of weight, financial contributions to the AU and global respect, Kenya is ahead of the other competitors.
- I see a scenario where even before the first round of elections, there will be compromises; some might drop out.
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I do not want to be biased, but I can say that Raila Odinga is the frontrunner in this election. There are two reasons for this.
If you compare his familiarity with others, even before he submitted his bid, he was already a person who does not require any global or regional introduction.
This is because of the politics he plays. He has several times been approached by the African Union itself to mediate in conflicts.
So, Raila is a man who is already a continental leader and does not need any introduction to most, if not all, the leaders.
The authoritarian leaders who make decisions in the AU know him.
There is a young generation but there are those like the Republic of Congo, Equatorial, Uganda, Rwanda and Eritrea. Those are people that the former Prime Minister does not need to introduce himself to.
But if you look at the other candidates, from Djibouti and the rest, they need to do a lot of self-introduction.
They first need to do the introduction and then bring their credentials.
But what Raila is now doing is just to affirm to the people that he can do the work.
Two, it is about the country that is backing him. The country that is nominating him compared to the other countries that are nominating candidates.
So, relatively, in terms of weight, financial contributions to the AU and global respect, Kenya is ahead of the other competitors, whether it is Madagascar or Djibouti.
Those two factors make Raila the person to beat in this race.
In my assessment, if other factors remain constant, he is starting ahead of the rest and he may win the election.
We expect that as the events move, this election may surprise many. You may find that with time, because Africa is trying to be less controversial and less divisive, some candidates may step down.
Africa is trying to have a strong united voice on many issues whether it is Gaza, Ukraine or the Red Sea.
So, I see a scenario where even before the first round of elections, there will be compromises; some might drop out.
Foreign policy and security specialist spoke to the Star