CRUSHED REVOLT

OMWENGA: Why Ruto will be reelected in 2027

The President's bold action to fire his Cabinet set in motion events that have led to new political realignments.

In Summary
  • The Gen Z created a space that any of the people casually mentioned as potential contenders in the 2027 presidential elections could have occupied.
  • Some of these names, including one, a former CS, have been thrown around, and as anyone who knows them will confirm, they are laughable.
President William Ruto in Migori county on August 28, 2024.
SUCCESSION POLITICS: President William Ruto in Migori county on August 28, 2024.
Image: PCS

Just before the height of the Gen Z protests, a friend who is not Kenyan asked me what was happening in the country and, specifically, whether President William Ruto would survive the onslaught. It was a question I could not answer with any certainty because I wasn’t sure whether Ruto could survive.

However, the question did have me thinking, and I concluded that Ruto could only survive if he took bold action, like firing everyone in his government and starting afresh.

Many of us advised the President to do just that, and to our surprise, he obliged and announced he was firing everyone in his Cabinet, save for Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, whom he could not fire constitutionally.

Following this bold move, I formed the opinion and informed my friend that, based on putting two and two together, Ruto was at least recognising he was facing revolt that could send him packing from the State House, unless he took serious action, such as he did, and by doing so, he was likely to survive the onslaught.

The head of state's bold action set in motion events that are still unfolding, but even more importantly, it set the Gen Z protesters on a course they were likely never to cross with Ruto or his government again.

In recognition of this eventuality, I pleaded with whoever was organising Gen Z to come up with an end game that would prevent their actions from being for naught other than allowing Ruto to regroup and emerge, probably even stronger.

One of those endgames I suggested was parleying the energy and morphing it into a force to bring about new and necessary constitutional adjustments we must have if we are to rid the country of the ongoing maladies.

More specifically, I made the case that a referendum would close the gaping holes in the current constitution, reduce bloated government and provide better tools to combat corruption. My pleas were based on a realisation there was no one in the opposition who could lead in these efforts at all, or even remotely close to what has happened in the past.

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, whose name is synonymous with the opposition and agitation for change in Kenya, was headed in a different direction. Looking at the scene from purely an objective political observer prism, I could not see the ODM leader playing any role in the Gen Z movement. Not because he lacked the energy and fortitude to lead such a movement again but because the underlying dynamics were different and unlike anything that informed his leadership and participation in the past.

Chief among these dynamics was Gen Z’s claim that they were “leaderless,” a claim which made no sense, but many of us commended their efforts and had high hopes they could lead somewhere beyond where they reached.

Having failed to morph into something more long-lasting quickly—or failing to hit the iron when it was hot, Ruto cleverly occupied the space and reconstituted a new government roping in Raila. With that, the Gen Z movement came to a crushing end.

Yes, sounds are being heard from whatever remains of it, but the carpet has already been yanked from underneath their feet, and they’re out in the cold.

It is unfortunate, but if the President had been even wiser and more calculating, he must now embark on advancing development objectives that target the plight of the youth and produce results quickly.

The Gen Z mini-movement created a space that any of the people whose names have been casually mentioned as potential contenders in the 2027 presidential elections could have occupied.

None did so, and Ruto has cleverly occupied the space.

Some of these names, including one, a former CS, have been thrown around, and as anyone who knows them will confirm, they are laughable.

Others, like Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka could have been serious but they have each demonstrated why they are not a match to Ruto standing on their own.

All these so-called opposition leaders have always needed Raila to be relevant.

Meanwhile, the former Prime Minister is now hop-skip-and-jumping to the AU as chairman; each one is on their own.

WATCH: The latest videos from the Star