- The weather in Kenya is also influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole, which relates to the Indian Ocean surface temperatures.
- Western Kenya would still likely to get near to above-average rains.
Image: ICPAC
The United Nations has revised down the likelihood of a La Nina appearing this year.
This phenomenon is associated with drier weather in Kenya.
The UN's World Meteorological Organization said there is now a 55 per cent likelihood of a transition from the current neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) to La Nina conditions during Kenya’s short rains season (September-November 2024).
This likelihood increases to 60 per cent from October 2024 to February 2025, WMO said in a statement.
This is a slight decline in likelihood since June, when the WMO had estimated the likelihood of La Nina taking hold at 60 per cent between July and September and at 70 per cent between August and November.
“For the past three months, neutral conditions have prevailed. But we have still seen widespread extreme weather conditions, including intense heat and devastating rainfall,” Celeste Saulo, the WMO secretary general, said on Wednesday.
“Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña and the associated impacts on the climate patterns globally are an important tool to inform early warnings and early action,” he added.
Although La Nina often brings drought in many parts of Kenya, it is not the only determinant.
The weather in Kenya is also influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole, which relates to the Indian Ocean surface temperatures.
A positive IOD typically brings above-average rainfall in eastern Kenya while a negative IOD suppresses the rains.
Currently, the IOD is neutral, according to the Kenya Meteorological department.
The WMO also noted that El Niño and La Nina are not the only drivers of the Earth’s climate system.
Saulo said the WMO will therefore issue more updates that incorporate the influences of other drivers, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole.
Early this month, the Kenya Meteorological department also predicted a weak La Nina, quelling fears of countrywide drought.
Met director Dr David Gikungu said in a three-month (October-December) forecast, that Western Kenya would still likely get near to above-average rains.
Central Kenya is expected to have a poor to fair distribution of rain, he said 10 days ago.
However, the rains will reduce drastically as you move towards Eastern Kenya and the border with Somalia.
“This will be driven by weak La Nina conditions which are likely to develop during September to November and persist into early 2025 and a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole,” he said.
La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. It is associated with depressed rainfall in Kenya.
The weatherman said the country should maximise production, even with little rains, to offset the effects of drought.
“The expected deficit in rainfall over the eastern sector of the country is likely to cause a slide into the alert phase of the drought early warning system. This might progress to the alarm worsening phase as the season progresses,” Gikungu said.
He said the short (October-December) rains will begin late in most places, except in Western Kenya where the ongoing rains will continue.
The predicted onsets, cessations and distribution of rainfall were derived from the year 2020, which appears to have similar weather to 2024.
“The rainfall outcomes for this analogue (similar) year are for reference only and should not be interpreted as part of the forecast. Rather, they provide a sense of the rainfall outcomes that can occur given broadly similar global climate conditions,” he said.