Who is the architect of conflict in the Horn of Africa?

In 2024, the Horn of Africa region has become increasingly volatile with a consistently unstable environment primarily due to the reckless actions and decisions taken by some senior officials in Ethiopia.

Despite the peace deal with Eritrea in 2019, which sparked hopes for regional peace and stability, top officials have failed to manage the diversity within Ethiopia, unify it and silence the guns in Oromia; instead, tension has escalated.

At home, three wars have been waged: Ethiopia is reeling from the aftermath of a disastrous war in the Tigray region, an internecine conflict in Amhara, and a civil war in Oromia.

Aside from the internal strife currently raging in the country, with civil war threatening to engulf Addis Ababa, some top leaders in Ethiopia have been antagonising all the countries in the region, with one or two exceptions.

From Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia to Egypt - which is not even part of the Horn of Africa - enmity has been created, with actions that have drawn condemnation from international organizations and countries, being taken.

To start with, relationship with Eritrea has deteriorated significantly since the initial optimism surrounding the peace agreement in 2019.  While the deal was celebrated as a historic step towards reconciliation, the subsequent conflict in the Tigray region has revealed deep-seated tensions.

Eritrean troops' involvement in the Tigray war, ostensibly to support the Ethiopian government, has led to widespread accusations of human rights violations and atrocities.

This military collaboration has not only undermined the peace process but has also fostered a sense of betrayal among Eritreans who had hoped for a new era of cooperation.

As a result, some leaders from Ethiopia are increasingly viewed as the architect of renewed hostilities, with many Eritreans blaming them for reigniting old animosities and perpetuating a cycle of conflict that threatens regional stability.

Similarly, some actions have strained relations with Djibouti and Somalia. Djibouti, which relies heavily on Ethiopia for trade and economic stability, has grown concerned about the spillover effects of Ethiopia's internal conflicts, particularly the Tigray war.

The perception that government prioritises military solutions over diplomatic engagement has led to a cooling of relations, with Djibouti feeling increasingly sidelined. In Somalia, in January 2024, Addis Ababa shocked the world by signing an Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland, a region within the Federal Government of Somalia, to gain control over 20 kilometers of Somalia's water near Berbera.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has stepped up diplomacy to ensure no violation of Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity. This has led to the African Union, the United Nations, the European Union, and China defending Somalia's unity and sovereignty.

The African Union has consistently emphasised the importance of respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its member states. In a statement regarding regional stability, the AU noted:

"The African Union reaffirms its commitment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia and calls for all parties to respect the principles of non-interference and peaceful coexistence."

The United Nations has also voiced concerns over Ethiopia's military involvement in Somalia, stating: "The United Nations underscores the necessity of respecting Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Any military actions that undermine this sovereignty are contrary to international law and the principles of the UN Charter."

The European Union has been vocal about the need for dialogue and respect for national sovereignty in the Horn of Africa, asserting: "The European Union calls for all nations in the region to respect Somalia's sovereignty and to engage in constructive dialogue to resolve any disputes peacefully, without resorting to military intervention."

China has taken a diplomatic stance regarding the situation in the Horn of Africa, stating: "China supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia and encourages all parties to engage in dialogue and cooperation to ensure peace and stability in the region, free from external aggression."

Many Somalis view some leaders from Ethiopia side as a destabilising force, accusing them of exacerbating existing tensions and conflicts rather than fostering peace.

This growing enmity has positioned these leaders as controversial, with accusations mounting that they are behind the conflicts that threaten to engulf the Horn of Africa.

Their contentious relationship with Egypt further illustrates the growing perception of them being a catalyst for regional discord. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has become a flashpoint in Ethiopia-Egypt relations, with Cairo viewing the dam's construction and operation as a direct threat to its water security.

Decisions regarding the dam's filling have been met with fierce opposition from Egypt, leading to accusations that the concerns of downstream nations are being disregarded.

This has not only strained diplomatic ties but has also fueled fears of potential military confrontation over water resources.

As tensions escalate, many in Egypt and beyond argue that the approach to regional issues from Ethiopia side is characterized by a lack of consideration for the broader implications of the actions being taken.

In summary, some decisions have alienated key regional partners and fostered a climate of distrust and hostility.

Reliance on military solutions, coupled with a failure to engage diplomatically with neighboring countries, is leading to conflicts plaguing the Horn of Africa.

As the situation continues to evolve, the urgent need for a more inclusive and conciliatory approach to regional relations becomes increasingly apparent, as the consequences not doing. this threatens to destabilise the entire region.

Abdi Mohamed is a freelance journalist based in Mogadishu