Gachagua allies sharpen claws ahead of impeachment motion

Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment plotters could pull a fast one on him should President William Ruto back the mission.

The ouster motion is yet to be introduced but there is word that MPs are being approached to append their signatures to it.

President Ruto is believed to have solidified his numbers in Parliament by going to great lengths to form a political pact with former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

Political pundits believe MPs at the Senate and National Assembly could still be whipped to follow the party chiefs’ wishes.

Opinion is divided on how easy it can be since removing a deputy president requires 233 votes in the National Assembly and 45 in the Senate.

Parliament has been unable to attain numbers to enact a crucial two-thirds gender law. The BBI bill is the only one that has the supermajority. It was supported by 235 MPs.

Kenya Kwanza has 231 MPs in the National Assembly, 179 elected through the coalition and others poached from the opposition.

Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance party has 139 MPs; Ford Kenya has six, while Musalia Mudavadi-linked Amani National Congress has six.

Raila’s ODM has the highest count of MPs on the minority side – 85, numbers which part can add to Ruto’s after the party’s leader closed ranks with UDA.

With the boost, Ruto could easily get a head start of 220 votes even before getting votes from his coalition partners Ford Kenya and ANC.

MPs have on many occasions followed party lines in their voting on crucial matters. An impeachment vote is, however, political, hence open to intrigues.

A Ruto and Raila troop working together assures them of a near-super majority in the National Assembly.

This could be lethal for Gachagua, assuming the parties vote as a bloc.

In the Senate, President Ruto’s coalition controls more than half of the 69 members, a figure likely to go up following Raila’s entry.

Senators Karungo Thang’wa (Kiambu), John Methu (Nyandarua), and Kamau Murango (Kirinyaga) are among the few who have declared support for Gachagua publicly.

Observers say he could also get votes from those uncomfortable with the broad-based government.

Opinion is divided on the DP’s survival chances.

For some quarters, his fate was sealed when Ruto appointed Raila’s allies to Cabinet and was thus neutered politically.

“There is nothing much remaining between the two unless they are pretending. It is like it is over and if an ouster motion is floated, Gachagua may not survive,” political analyst Herman Manyora said.

Last week, 69 MPs from Mt Kenya declared they would support Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki over Gachagua.

In what gave the slightest hint of the numbers that the DP could use as a headstart, a meeting of lawmakers supporting him yielded 52 members.

The meeting convened by Embakasi Central Benjamin Gathiru, alias Mejjadonk, reportedly resolved that members headhunt more MPs to oppose such a motion.

Members of Wiper, ODM, and independents were said to be in the team, mostly those who have made public pronouncements in support of the DP.

Kajiado South MP Samuel Parashina said the deputy president should be allowed to complete his full term.

“Any plan to undermine him will not work. We are waiting for them in Parliament with that motion,” the ODM MP said.

Notable faces in Gachagua’s camp are MPs Mejjadonk, Njeri Maina (Kirinyaga WR), Jayne Kihara (Naivasha), Joseph Munyoro (Kigumo), Onesmus Ngogoyo (Kajiado North), and James Gakuya (Embakasi North).

Gachagua could likely to benefit from the fallout in Azimio where Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka is attempting to cut his niche.

Some ODM MPs are in his camp, and with word that they are in talks with Gachagua for an alliance ahead of 2027, the numbers are likely to go the DP’s side.

Wiper has 25 MPs in the National Assembly who may join hands with the DP’s allies in UDA who have chosen to go against the gravy train.

For other pundits, removing Gachagua from the post of DP would be no walk in the park, citing his influence on marshalling the ground against critics.

“They said they were to sign the impeachment that very night of the Nyandarua declaration but they could not raise the numbers,” Gathiru said, warning his colleagues against writing their political obits.

The DP, recently at a function in Kirinyaga, also warned Mt Kenya MPs against ‘taking the wrong bus’ in a subtle warning they will lose the 2027 elections.

Political analyst Albert Kasembeli told the Star the polity is not just about numbers, adding that those pushing for the ouster cannot outshine the DP.

He said this follows the feeling in the region that the lot is being used to settle political scores and that “some MPs may not want to be dragged into a duel they don’t understand”.

“It is not about the numbers. It is about the Mt Kenya electorate's perception. Rigathi is seen as ‘our man’, hence the vote would take the path of ‘us versus them’,” Kasembeli said.

For the analyst, the political support Ruto enjoys, as fuelled by his newfound allies, may not translate to a vote on the floor.

“Some MPs are dissatisfied with Raila’s move to join hands with Ruto. They may rebel. This thing is not as simple as they are. The schemers may just be spoiling for a political battle they may not win,” he said.

Dr Charles Nyambuga, a political commentator from Maseno University, said the situation would be dicey.

He said the tricky part for the DP is the mountain itself, adding that “that is where the answer to the puzzle is.”

“The battle will be fought and won in the mountain. Is the mountain with Gachagua or MPs? The answer to that is dicey,” Nyambuga said.

For the don, the numbers who have broken ranks with the deputy president are not something to ignore, “considering the polling station where impeachment vote is carried.”

“There is a high possibility Nyanza MPs will vote against Gachagua, as well as MPs from other regions. He might lose this thing,” he said. “He has concentrated his activities in central, dealing with the people rather than leaders. He, therefore, has the populace who are not voting. It is a tricky situation.”

A not-so-vocal MP from Mt Kenya East confided in the Star that the motion if brought, would sail through.

“The man has rubbed many MPs from the mountain the wrong way. They want to deal with him before 2027 so that he doesn’t mess up their political careers,” the lawmaker said.

Gachagua’s critics accuse him of being a divisive figure who concentrates state resources under his purview in Mt Kenya.

Possible charges against the Deputy President are yet to be disclosed but sources intimated that they could border on links to the Gen Z protests.

The DP is also accused of sabotaging the government, pushing sectarian interests and perpetuating tribalism.

Article 150 of the Constitution says the Deputy President may be removed from office on grounds of physical or mental incapacity and impeachment.

Impeachment can be on the grounds of a gross violation of the law, committing a crime under national or international law, and or for gross misconduct.

An MP moving a motion to impeach the deputy president requires signatures of at least 116 members of the National Assembly.

The motion has to be supported by at least 233 MPs before it can be passed to the Senate for prosecution.

Speaker of the Senate has seven days to convene a meeting to hear the charges.

The Senate, by resolution, may appoint a special committee comprising eleven members to investigate the matter and report within 10 days.

If the special committee reports that the particulars of any allegation against the Deputy President have not been substantiated, further proceedings shall not be taken.

If the special committee substantiates any of the charges, the Senate shall vote on the impeachment charges after allowing the Deputy President to be heard.