• The research led by Prof. Nyovani Madise, the Director of Development Policy and Head of AFIDEP Malawi, urges a closer examination of the role of population growth.
• This is particularly in the rapidly expanding countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which are expected to see significant population increases by 2050.
Image: FILE
A new study suggests there is need to mainstream family planning into climate strategies as a way to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
The study by the African Institute for Development Policy is igniting a fresh debate on the intersection of population growth and climate action.
While the focus of the climate crisis has largely been on high-income nations—whose per capita emissions and consumption patterns contribute disproportionately to global GHG emissions—the study calls for a broader perspective.
Prof Nyovani Madise, the Director of Development Policy and Head of Afidep Malawi called for a closer examination of the role of population growth.
“There is no doubt that populous countries such as India, China and Nigeria are major contributors to global emissions. However, evidence regarding the role of population growth in climate change is mixed,” Madise said.
This is particularly true in rapidly expanding countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which are expected to see significant population increases by 2050.
The study challenges the prevailing view that population growth is a secondary factor in climate change, overshadowed by industrial consumption patterns in wealthier countries.
“While the current framework, which emphasises mitigation by high-income nations and adaptation by low-income, low-emitting countries, which makes sense in the short term, it is insufficient to address the future impacts of rapid population growth.”
The Afidep research calls for development aid to focus on curbing population growth voluntarily and ethically, helping couples achieve their desired family size while simultaneously addressing education, poverty reduction and environmental sustainability.
Addressing population growth—through voluntary, rights-based family planning initiatives—could be a key component in reducing future emissions, particularly in nations on the verge of significant economic expansion.
“Reducing childbearing is arguably a simpler and more effective strategy for lowering emissions than overhauling consumption patterns in already industrialised nations,” Madise said.
“But this can only be achieved through empowering choices, not coercion.”
Empowering younger populations—who tend to have lower per capita GHG emissions and are more likely to adopt sustainable consumption patterns—is key in shaping a climate-friendly future.
“Age structure matters. While older populations tend to have higher per capita energy consumption and are less likely to change their behaviours, younger populations represent an opportunity for a more sustainable path forward,” the researchers argue.
“Their fertility intentions can be shaped by climate-conscious policies, creating a generation that is more attuned to the environmental challenges of the future.”
The research critiques the dominant narrative promoted by climate justice movements, which emphasises the responsibility of high-income nations to bear the financial burden of global climate action.
While such arguments have merit, the professor and her team argue that they overlook the critical role of population dynamics, particularly in fast-growing but poor African nations that are seen primarily as victims of climate-induced disasters.
Fast-growing, low-income nations are likely to follow the same unsustainable development paths taken by Western countries to industrialise, leading to greater land use changes, increased demand for energy and rising GHG emissions.
“These countries will not remain static in terms of their economic development. Rapid urbanisation and land-use changes to meet food and housing needs, coupled with increasing energy demands, will inevitably lead to greater environmental pressures,” the study notes.
More than 100 countries have committed to reducing their GHG emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2050.
However, current trends suggest the world is not on track to meet these targets, with global emissions projected to rise by 9 per cent by 2030 compared to 2010.
While smaller countries like Bhutan, Suriname and Panama have already achieved net zero emissions, the study stresses that without substantial financial and technological support, low-income countries will struggle sustainably to meet their food security and energy needs.
“If the world is serious about addressing both population growth and climate change, then development aid must prioritise investments in sustainable agriculture, renewable energy and family planning in fast-growing, poor nations,” the researchers conclude.
“Unfortunately, the financial support required for these up-front investments has yet to materialise.”
The research was published in the Vienna Yearbook of Population Research of the Vienna Institute of Demography and the Austrian Academy of Sciences.
The timing of the research, released just ahead of COP29, is expected to fuel renewed discussions about how population dynamics and climate action should be integrated into global climate policies.
Discussions about population control in the context of climate action have long been contentious.
Past efforts, including policies promoting “population engineering” and fertility reductions, were abandoned due to ethical concerns and unintended consequences.
The 29th Conference of Parties - the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change - which is set to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan in November.