The political truce between President William Ruto and opposition chief Raila Odinga could dim the rising political stars, especially those seeking to unseat governors.
There are early signals county bosses, especially those in their first terms, could be spared cut throat political competition in the spirit of the new dalliance.
Some of the governors are close Raila and Ruto confidants, with two of the ODM county chiefs among the party's second in command.
The two governors are Simba Arati (Kisii) and Abdulswamad Nassir (Mombasa).
According to political commentator Daniel Orogo, there will be mass political casualties if the Ruto, Raila deal survives to 2027.
Orogo told the Star that the deal will affect a number of bigwigs in Nairobi, Nyanza, Coast and even Western.
"Definitely there will be sacrifices, they (Ruto, Raila) wouldn't want parties to cannibalise each other and then lose political seats," Orogo said on phone.
"If the partnership is to hold, it will really affect some of the allies of the two leaders."
The potential casualties in the arrangement will be the allies of the two leaders who have been eyeing governor jobs.
Some of the casualties have already opposed the deal in a delicate political survival strategy.
Their fears seems to arise from the aftermath of Raila and retired President Uhuru Kenyatta’s 2018 deal that left a trail of casualties in the political scene.
In Nairobi, Embakasi East Babu Owino and his Embakasi North counterpart James Gakuya have not had kind words for the broad-based government.
The two are eyeing Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja’s seat in 2027.
Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s camp has been pushing for the candidature of Gakuya to challenge Sakaja’s bid for a second and final term.
Even though Sakaja has denied any deal with Raila in exchange for support for his re-election, there is however growing dalliance with the former ODM boss.
In an interview with the Star, the governor said he is ready to face rivals, saying his close links with Raila has nothing to do with his re-election.
“It (broad-based) is a decision the President has made. I have always been a proponent of a unified country. There are those who have uncertainty political-wise, I have only one driving lesson to them; if you cant see don't go,” Sakaja told the Star.
The city county boss even attended a private function in Raila’s rural Bondo home early this month and spent the weekend with the Africa Union Commission candidate.
Other incumbent governors in Raila and Ruto strongholds and battlegrounds who could emerge the beneficiaries of the deal include Arati who was recently elevated as ODM deputy party leader.
Others are Paul Otuoma (Busia), Fernandes Barasa (Kakamega), Abdulswamad Nassir (Mombasa), Gideon Mung’aro (Kilifi), Susan Kihika (Nakuru) and Patrick Ntutu (Narok).
In Kakamega, Barasa who beat Kenya Kwanza’s Cleophas Malala in the 2022 polls, has a lot of work to do to benefit from the deal following his on and off relationship with the ODM party.
Last week, the first term governor hit out at ODM which had made changes to the assembly’s leadership in a meeting chaired by Raila.
“The county assembly of Kakamega and I as the branch chairman respect the party. But please, don’t micro-manage the county government,” Barasa said after ODM settled on Geoffrey Ondiro to replace Philip Maina as the majority leader.
“We have executive authority of the people who elected us and there is no county that is directed by the party on how it should run its programmes.”
Barasa is facing stiff competition from Senator Boni Khalwale who appears to be having the blessings of both Ruto and Raila.
Khalwale also enjoys the backing of retired Governor Wycliffe Oparanya now a Cabinet Secretary in the broad-based government.
The fight for governor positions in the 47 counties is the country’s second most hotly contested elections after the presidency.
Being the chief executive officers of the counties and controlling billions of shillings, makes such positions a matter of life and death.
In Mombasa, Ruto’s UDA faces internal squabbles as Nyali MP Mohamed Ali and East African Legislative Assembly MP Hassan Omar eye the party ticket.
In Narok, Governor Ntutu of UDA appears likely to have a head start against his possible rivals including ODM, given his working relationship with the President and the former Prime Minister.
In the 2022 polls, Ntutu defeated ODM’s Moitalel Ole Kenta to capture the Narok governor’s seat.
There are reports that Senator Ledama Olekina is eyeing the ODM ticket to challenge Ntutu in 2027 for governor seat. Narok is considered a political battleground.
Olekina told the Star he will be on the ballot in 2027.
“We must fight to redeem our county and that is why I have said I will seek to be the governor of Narok in 2027," he said.
Stakes could also be high in Nakuru, where Kihika braved a vicious competition to defeat her opponent Lee Kinyanjui of Azimio.
Political dynamics in Kisii could be tipped for a drastic change after Arati and South Mugirango MP Sylvanus Osoro appeared to be warming up to each other after the Raila-Ruto deal.
Osoro was seen as Arati’s foremost 2027 opponent but the latest development could benefit the governor who was recently elevated to be the ODM deputy leader.
While Osoro has not publicly stated that he will not run in 2027, there are indications that their truce, which was brokered by Ruto, might see the second-term MP shelve his ambitions.
The horse-trading was the situation in the last elections when the handshake deal gave way for select governors to defend their seats while their competitors in the arrangement were prevailed upon to go for some seats.
In several counties, Azimio parties were whipped to rally behind a dominant party candidate. This move saw some aspirants exiting the coalition for fringe parties or as independent candidates.
For instance, Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi was talked out of the ODM ticket in 2022 in favour of Polycarp Igathe.
Already, Ruto has given a clear signal that his Kenya Kwanza coalition may enter into a coalition with Raila’s ODM in 2027.
“I met with ODM minority leader Junet Mohamed and we agreed yesterday that the leadership of the opposition after three years should be given to other people because all of us will be in government,” Ruto said during the homecoming of Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi at Sidindi Primary School, Siaya County.
“The people of Siaya do you agree that after three years we hand over opposition to other people?”
This would mean that the two dominant political parties will have to make major sacrifices to ensure they don’t give advantage to rivals by fielding many candidates for a particular seat.
