- Riggy G’s recent remarks of betrayal on TV confirm that he feels politically sidelined and that the balance of power within Ruto’s coalition has change.
- This signals that his personal contributions to securing the presidency are no longer valued, indicating that his position within the coalition is not secure.
Image: MINA
“I don’t have to trust you. I just have to keep you around.”
This is a line from the movie Ides of March. In this movie, Governor Mike Morris is running for the US presidency. He relies heavily on his skilled and idealistic campaign adviser, Stephen Meyers, to navigate the highly competitive and rough political landscape.
The governor positions himself as a beacon of hope, integrity and idealism and is considered a front-runner in the Democratic primaries. Meyers is talented and highly regarded within the political arena for his strategic brilliance and media-savvy skills. Throughout the campaign, he works tirelessly to ensure Morris’s victory, believing in Morris’s ideals and political message. Their relationship begins with mutual trust and professional respect.
As a result, Morris goes on to win a critical victory in the primaries. However, as the campaign intensifies and political stakes rise, the cracks in their relationship start to appear. It becomes evident that Meyers has become a liability to Morris, not because he is incompetent, but because he knows too much and could potentially destabilise Morris's carefully managed campaign. Specifically, Meyers discovers a damaging secret about Morris’s personal life, which threatens to unravel the governor’s candidacy. Meyers uses this information to try to negotiate for his political survival when he is caught between opposing factions within the campaign.
Morris makes a cold political calculation and turns on Meyers. Instead of dealing with the problem in a cooperative or reconciliatory manner, Morris manipulates the situation to distance himself from Meyers and protect his own political career. Meyers, who was once instrumental in Morris’s success, becomes expendable. Morris prioritises his own survival and discards Meyers, reflecting the harsh reality that in high-stakes political environments, even close allies can become threats to be eliminated.
In the world of politics, political loyalty is a fragile commodity and alliances are often fluid, guided by the pursuit of power rather than ideological commitment. “I don’t have to trust you. I just have to keep you around” serves as a powerful illustration of the transactional nature of political relationships, where loyalty is secondary to strategic necessity.
This is called the Selectorate Theory developed by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. It posits that the immediate priority of any leader who ascends to power is to solidify power and reduce vulnerabilities because their main goal is to remain in power.
To achieve that, they MUST continuously manage the composition of their winning coalition, which is the essential group of supporters or elites that help them secure and keep power. The key to the political leader’s survival depends on their ability to satisfy this winning coalition. And as political dynamics shift, leaders adjust their strategies, often sidelining or manipulating key allies who may no longer be useful or may become potential threats. Hence, to maintain the original winning coalition in its entirety becomes unnecessary or even undesirable.
Sound familiar?
This is playing out in our current political landscape in the evolving relationship between President William Ruto and his deputy, Rigathi Gachagua. When the two teamed up for the 2022 elections, Riggy G was an integral part and constant figure in Ruto’s strategy to solidify and secure votes from Kenya’s politically significant Mt Kenya region.
In selectorate theory terms, Riggy G was part of Ruto’s winning coalition. His political capital and mobilisation skills were seen as indispensable to Ruto’s chances at winning the presidency. Their alliance was thus primarily transactional, built around mutual interest. Riggy G helped to bring in the votes, and in return he secured the deputy president position where he assumed he would wield influence over regional and national affairs, given the size of the votes bagged from Mt Kenya.
Not surprisingly, one year after Ruto assumed the presidency, much like the dynamic between Morris and Meyers, the rift in their relationship has become increasingly evident once the immediate goal of winning the election was achieved, and the need to maintain the winning coalition subsided.
Riggy G’s recent remarks of betrayal on national TV confirm that he feels politically sidelined and that the balance of power within Ruto’s coalition has change. This signals that his personal contributions to securing the presidency are no longer valued, indicating that his position within the winning coalition is not secure.
In his assessment, Riggy G posits that the deputy president position is jinxed.
Begs the question, is it really? Or is it the necessary application of the selectorate theory to continuously manage the composition of the winning coalition? You be the judge.
History is littered with examples of the application of the selectorate theory, including President Jomo Kenyatta and his vice president, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, former DRC President Lauren Kabila and his deputy, Deleuvain Ndonga, and in Zimbabwe, President Emmerson Mnagagwa and his deputy, Constantino Chiwenga, to name a few.
Ruto and his new winning coalition likely view Riggy G’s ambitions and rising prominence within the central Kenya political landscape as turning him into a potential rival, rather than a long-term ally. As a result, sidelining him may be viewed as a necessary cost of navigating high-stakes politics, rather than an act of malice. And the President would be politically naïve not to apply the selectorate theory after his many years in politics.
Finally, my unsolicited advice is to Riggy G and by extension to all deputy governors. Expecting not to be sidelined after election victory has been secured is like telling water not to be wet. It will inevitably happen. It’s nothing personal. Just business.
So play the long game. Avoid open conflict and lamentations. It makes you appear weak and vengeful. Rather, keep your ambitions subtle. Think beyond the immediate and craft a presidential image by championing successful government initiatives that have a broad public appeal, carve out specific policy niches that resonate with the public interest, and invest in grassroots political networks particularly with the Gen Zs and women.
Most importantly, control the media narrative by framing yourself as a results-driven leader and value as a public servant, rather than dwelling on political grievances. In addition, maintain a lighthearted and relatable tone, injecting humor appropriately, while acknowledging the complexities of leadership, and tactfully deflecting with diplomacy responses to questions about any disagreements with your boss or other politicos.
The road to power is paved with hypocrisy and casualties – Frank Underwood, from TV series House of Cards