With the odds staking against Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua at the Senate ahead of next Thursday, succession battles are quietly going on in the Mt Kenya region.
Political bigwigs are lining up, quietly reaching out or being mentioned in various forums as the best bet for President William Ruto to retain the rich–both in numbers and financially–voting bloc ahead of 2027.
Should senators take a cue from their 282 National Assembly colleagues and vote to impeach Gachagua, the latent political alignments are expected to explode.
The jostle is tied to Ruto’s best bet for Deputy President should the impeachment motion against the incumbent sail through.
But with Gachagua thrust into the deep end of the battlefield, competition for the kingpin position he has been fighting to earn has intensified.
Mt Kenya, more so the Agikuyu, is facing a leadership void, its options narrowing ahead of 2027 amid former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s studious silence.
The region is presently the nerve centre of the political upheavals birthed by the bitter fallout between Ruto and the DP.
In the restive environment, the lot is divided between those for Gachagua and those for a new crop of leadership.
Most Mt Kenya MPs want the DP replaced, about 70 of them fronting Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki. The CS is viewed, as among the ranking leaders who could tick most of Ruto’s boxes should the beleaguered DP be sent packing.
Observers say the Interior CS fares better among MPs, most of whom hold him in high regard. They said in the now-famed Laikipia declaration that he is the region’s preferred link to the presidency. Kindiki is hailed as meticulous at his tasks in the sensitive docket and is heavily credited for the return of peace in the once-disturbed Northern Kenya.
However, others feel Murang’a Governor Irungu Kang’ata fits the bill, while some have mentioned Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro.
The third-term lawmaker has taken a middle ground in the raging politics that threatens to tear Kenya Kwanza and Mt Kenya apart, ending its decades-hold of political supremacy.
Kang’ata has also been measured on his political clout and acceptability to the people as the region’s leader and as a pick for DP. Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru, who recently boosted her political capital with the endorsement of the women governors’ league, is also widely mentioned.
This has been escalated by Ruto’s sentiments that his next choice for deputy is highly likely to be a woman. In the face of Gachagua's woes, the choice is likely to be accelerated before the 2027 vote.
However, political pundits hold that in the face of the apparent competition between Kiambu, Murang’a and Kirinyaga counties, a neutral player would be a game changer.
Governance specialist Brian Mutie earlier told this writer that there would be agitation in Central, should Ruto drop Gachagua. “Mt Kenya vote will be split between Ruto and Gachagua or whichever camp the latter supports,” he said.
For Mutie, Ruto has a tough tactical balancing act in appeasing Mt Kenya as well as bases he is eyeing for 2027, like Nyanza. “For him to fulfil the political desire of the region (Nyanza), he must make a sacrifice of dropping a Kikuyu vice president,” he observed.
But other observers hold that it is not easy to get a replacement for the vote-rich Mt Kenya bloc.
“You cannot replace Mt Kenya vote with Nyanza where the turnout is averagely 58 per cent,” Prof Gitile Naituli said. As such, he holds that the choice of Mt Kenya kingpin is one who can shepherd the region’s vote to one basket. “Kingpins emerge, they are not appointed,” he said, even as the list of possible Gachagua successors keeps growing long.
Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni says the Deputy President is to blame for the region’s apparent disunity. Kioni is among leaders from the area who say the DP does not fit the bill as its kingpin citing “support for the oppressor”.
For the secretary general, Uhuru remains the kingpin and anyone Ruto appoints does not automatically rise to take up the slot. Mathira MP Eric Wamumbi said the question of who will succeed Gachagua in the position is inconsequential.
He said the mountain is not an individual, noting, “It is all the people including those outside the region.” “We are looking at a person who is going to bring the people together and deliver,” he added.
Some pundits though hold the thought that it is not a must for a Deputy President to be selected from Mt Kenya.
Their point is that the Mt Kenya kingship issue needs not be mixed with the DP succession battle. In that regard, they cite names such as that of Environment CS Aden Duale as among the best picks.
Also cited is Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who is also viewed as already serving the role, albeit from the shadows.
Political risk analyst Dismas Mokua holds the thought that Ruto “has the yam and the knife in the nomination and subsequent appointment of the next DP.”
“While there is a general feeling that DP Gachagua replacement should be from Mt Kenya, the probability that President Ruto can pick a replacement from outside Mt Kenya does exist,” he said.
Mokua explained that Kenya Kwanza has a rich pool of possible nominees that capture the face of Kenya – like Musalia, Duale and Salim Mvurya.
“The DP nominee must by definition inspire both national and international confidence. The nominee must have political capital and capacity to hit the ground running,” he said.
For Mokua, President Ruto has the opportunity to use the DP nominee to dismantle tribalism and raise public accountability levels.
“The DP choice can be the first step to dismantling political blackmail in Kenya that is the currency of a good number of tribal leaders masquerading as national leaders,” he explained.
He argued that Gachagua’s constant claims that he moved the Mt Kenya needle in favour of Ruto and talk of Mt Kenya shareholding in the Kenya Kwanza administration was no more than blackmail and high-octane arrogance.
“Kenya’s progress cannot be held captive by tribal considerations and blackmail,” the political risk analyst said.
Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir urged leaders to focus on inclusive governance, warning that ethnic divisions threaten to derail the progress Kenya has made.
“We must reject the politics of exclusion and work towards a united Kenya. This country belongs to all of us, and we must be careful not to let divisive politics tear us apart,” Nassir said.
In the ensuing polity, Mt Kenya’s options are limited to sticking with Ruto and his allies from the region, forming a political party or strengthening one like Jubilee, or pursuing alternative coalition partners.
Already, works are on a possible alliance bringing together Gachagua and the Azimio remnants–Kalonzo Musyoka of Wiper and DAP-K boss Eugene Wamalwa.
Jubilee, by extension Uhuru, is said to be hesitant to join the league, for reasons yet to be established.
The grand question, pundits say, is; will the real Mt Kenya leader or Deputy President stand up? Time will tell.