A political miscalculation by impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has left him badly exposed.
This is after he failed to sign an agreement with his boss William Ruto ahead of the 2022 polls. In contrast, the majority of Kenya Kwanza political leaders made strong agreements with President Ruto’s UDA party to protect themselves from arbitrary removal.
Political signs suggest that Gachagua’s situation may worsen if he is expelled in the near future, both as a member and as deputy leader.
According to UDA secretary general Hassan Omar, Gachagua will be ousted as deputy party leader after Kithure Kindiki is sworn in as the country’s deputy president.
“The NEC will meet at any time to ratify Kindiki as the new deputy party leader,” Omar said.
Kindiki was sworn in on Friday after the High Court lifted conservatory orders prohibiting him from taking office after Gachagua challenged his impeachment.
In what appeared to be a story of remorse, Gachagua told the people of the Mount Kenya region last week to keep their cool and only speak up when it was appropriate.
“We in the Mount Kenya region do not like making noise or protesting in the streets; instead, we wait for the right time to do the necessary and make our voices heard at the polling station,” Gachagua said during a funeral in Limuru, Kiambu county.
While towering Kenya Kwanza principals signed legally binding agreements, Gachagua relied on President Ruto’s goodwill during the campaign trail.
Some, including Senate Speaker Amason Kingi and his National Assembly counterpart Moses Wetan’gula, were complicit in Gachagua’s purported betrayal by supervising his dismissal.
“Gachagua’s talks with Ruto may have taken place in private in the boardroom prior to the 2022 elections, but they were never recorded anywhere,” political analyst Mwangi Kinyanjui said. “
"That blind trust that everything would go well left Gachagua badly exposed, and he will live to regret his missed opportunity to bring Ruto to the negotiating table prior to the elections.”
Ruto was the man to beat in the Mt Kenya region, and many analysts believe that the president could have won the region even if he had chosen another running mate from the same region.
Others argue Gachagua provided Ruto with the much-needed verbal assault that pushed retired President Uhuru Kenyatta even further, allowing Kenya Kwanza a clear path to power.
“Let us not delude ourselves. Without Gachagua, defeating President Uhuru in the Mount Kenya region would have been extremely difficult. Gachagua was instrumental in President Ruto’s victory,” Embakasi North MP James Gakuya, a close ally of Gachagua, said.
Kindiki was widely regarded as the frontrunner for the second-in-command position ahead of the 2022 elections, but after hours of haggling at Ruto’s Karen Residence, Gachagua was chosen due to his fiery and no-holds-barred campaign strategy.
According to reports, most MPs from Mount Kenya preferred Kindiki over Gachagua, but Ruto overruled them.
Ruto has previously admitted that he overruled MPs on the selection of his running mate because he believed in Gachagua.
During the 2022 campaigns, Gachagua was forced to calm jitters within his Mt Kenya backyard after politicians raised concerns about the lack of a binding agreement with President William Ruto.
“As Mt Kenya region, we do not need to sign any agreement with President William Ruto because he is our son and he is a gentleman. We have trusted his word and I have told our leaders that we don’t need any agreement,” Gachagua said during a campaign rally in Nyeri in May 2022.
Analysts now argue that Gachagua’s words have come back to haunt him, as President Ruto’s men will certainly force him out of the UDA, where he serves as deputy party leader.
Omar said the party’s National Executive Committee will meet and remove Gachagua as deputy party leader as soon as his court cases are completed.
The High Court’s three-judge bench lifted the conservatory orders that prevented Gachagua’s successor from taking the oath of office, effectively allowing Kindiki to do so last Friday.
Kindiki’s swearing-in left Gachagua politically ruined, even as he fights in court to clear his name with the hope of running for a political office again.
The law prohibits impeached leaders from holding any public or state office, including a political seat. Political analysts argue that Gachagua has no influence in the ranks of the party because he has no binding agreement with President Ruto.
“It is true, Gachagua is severely exposed because unlike some of the Kenya Kwanza bigwigs, he has no solid pact within UDA or Kenya Kwanza that can insulate him against mischief,’’ said political analyst Alexander Nyamboga.
According to the analyst, Gachagua’s downfall stemmed from failure to plan ahead of time and reach an agreement with President Ruto before accepting the running mate position.
“Had Gachagua been properly guided to force his backyard into signing a deal with President Ruto, it would have been very difficult to kick him out of office, and thus the UDA,” he added.
Other prominent Kenyan Kwanza figures, with the exception of Gachagua, signed formal agreements with President Ruto that included power-sharing arrangements.
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi joined Kenya Kwanza after signing an agreement with the ANC party that guaranteed his position in government.
He later resigned as ANC party leader after taking office as PCS, with the party already planning to disband and join UDA.
Wetang’ula, another Kenya Kwanza bigwig, has signed a pre-election agreement with the Kenya Kwanza Alliance through his Ford Kenya party.
The agreement protected his position as National Assembly Speaker, as well as a share of other lucrative government positions such as cabinet secretaries, principal secretaries, and ambassadorial posts.
Other Kenya Kwanza heavyweights who have signed agreements with the ruling party include Labour Cabinet Secretary Alfred Mutua of Maendeleo Chap Chap and Public Service CS Justin Muturi of the Democratic Party.
Their agreements secured a cabinet secretary slot for each. Senate Speaker Amason Kingi of the PAA party was another leader who struck a deal with Kenya Kwanza, securing his place in the party and the speakership.
The leaders’ positions as principals in the Kenya Kwanza Alliance were guaranteed by the agreements, which were made public at a Nairobi hotel prior to the 2022 elections.
Except in cases where the agreement’s exit clause was used, the action protected them from being arbitrarily removed.
The impeached DP was one of the founding members of UDA and was thought to have suffered the most at the hands of former President Uhuru Kenyatta as he campaigned for Ruto in Mount Kenya.
During the campaigns, Gachagua antagonised Uhuru’s supporters in Mount Kenya, reducing the Jubilee party’s influence in the region from a popular party that won seats in 2017 to a small outfit with fewer than 30 MPs.
If Gachagua is kicked out of the UDA before the 2027 elections, he can form his own party.
He would then use his party to form a coalition with other like-minded parties, with indications that he could join forces with Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka.
Musyoka has been defending him against the UDA onslaught and even visited him in his hospital after he fell ill during the Senate impeachment hearing.
There are indications that Gachagua, Musyoka, and Uhuru will form a political alliance to challenge Ruto in 2027.
However, Ruto’s alliance with former Prime Minister Raila Odinga is viewed as part of his reelection strategy.
He has brought key Raila allies into Cabinet, indicating his contingency plan if he loses favor with Mount Kenya in 2027.
Gachagua recently expressed regret for supporting Ruto without a political party backing him.
“No one trusted Ruto as we approached the election. Mudavadi,
Wetangula, Kingi and Mutua demanded an MoU. I was the only one
who verbally trusted him.”
