One of the best descriptions of politics I have encountered is that it is the fight for management of finite resources by groups of people with leaders, or persons with a vibrant group of followers.
What is intriguing is that there are invariably, competing forces all with the same objective, often with the identical determination to win and almost always, all have a deep conviction that victory is theirs.
The outcome is subsequently a disappointment for a good number of competitors, despite their best efforts, thereby proving that politics is not an exact science.
Therein figures chance or luck, which may be described as an incalculable interplay or randomness and opportunities resulting in great advantage to one while handicapping another.
Some Chinese philosophers have said, “One makes his own luck,” meaning luck is a confluence of effort and opportunity.
There are at least four different instances in which chance or luck has seemed to play an overwhelming role in some Kenyan politicians’ lives.
The first is when there is an unexpected political vacancy, which may be due to a prominent politician’s unforeseen resignation, dismissal, or death.
This could create or fast-track one’s career immeasurably and place him or her beyond anticipated status.
The tragedy of Musalia Mudavadi’s loss of a father and the unfolding sequence of events saw him become a Cabinet minister at age 29, and vice president 13 years later.
He is currently Prime Cabinet Secretary and arguably the most experienced person in government on matters of statecraft.
The second phenomenon is when one associates with high-impact and highly visible processes, like political campaigns.
Being in the right place at the right time during such occurrences can elevate a politician’s public profile and bolster his or her career.
The 2022 general election was one such event with captivating policy proposals that prioritised the creation of wealth among the lowest income eatest beneficiaries of this campaign was Rigathi Gachagua, who far outpaced everyone by not only painting a new dawn but also by pouring acerbic ridicule on the outgoing President.
Gachagua, a first-term MP, ended up as the Deputy President. Scandals, by and large, are often not suffi cient to force the average Kenyan politician to resign.
This third instance is best epitomised by then-MP of Kipipiri and Minister of Finance (2006-08), Amos Kimunya, who declared he would rather die than resign.
He however remained alive before and after resigning – and went on to lose the election, despite what some said was his excellent record as MP.
The fourth circumstance is when resources - an essential price in politics - accrue randomly and through no eff ort of the recipient, positioning them to advance their cause effectively.
This is what happened in Nyali constituency in Mombasa county. A previous MP was in court for a case involving the disputed management of the Constituency Development Fund that resulted in prohibited access to the account by the parties.
The matter went unresolved until the expiry of the litigants’ terms. The incoming Nyali MP, Mohammed Ali, thus started his term with a full three-years allocation of CDF funds at his disposal.
You cannot get luckier than this, as a politician. His astute management brought unparalleled development to the constituency and subsequently, gave him such massive popularity that he has set his eyes on the governor’s position in the next election.
Not only was he lucky, he made eff ective use of the opportunity that luck had presented him. Having three years’ worth of CDF funding in just one year is guaranteed to create an impact that rivals are not likely to equal.
This is how chance occurrences
act as turning points, either
propelling politicians to greater
heights or derailing their careers
unexpectedly