In politics, there are no permanent enemies, only permanent interests.
We have seen this manifestation in Kenya occasionally in the past, but now it is so fast and furious it’s almost dizzying.
When retired President Uhuru Kenyatta had a fallout with his then deputy and now President William Ruto, no one expected that Ruto would survive the beating that was to be delivered to him at the 2022 polls.
No one, except for Ruto and his cadre of operatives, who made sure he would not only not have the beating but would flip things and deliver the beating himself, which he did.
To this day, people still marvel at how he managed. In the irony of ironies, the man who helped the President deliver the beating and more specifically, the man Ruto used to humiliate and destroy Uhuru in the latter’s own backyard has since been humiliated and sent to wherever he came from.
His desperate pleas and seeking forgiveness from Uhuru to save him from efforts to impeach him fell on deaf ears.
That did not surprise anyone and is also a reminder it’s not always true that there are no permanent enemies. Yes, that’s true in nearly all situations, but there are times people have crossed the proverbial line on the sand such that it’s war from then on without any mercy.
When Ruto took over from Uhuru, he immediately put his marker down and acted as though his predecessor was no longer relevant in his political calculations, even less so than in the lead-up to the 2022 elections.
For what it’s worth, both the law and protocols accord ex-Presidents not anywhere near what they enjoyed as perks and privileges a head of state enjoys, but enough.
Many live very comfortably and unbothered by whoever the current President is. There was a time not too long after Ruto came to power when there were tell-tale signs he was going to try and make Uhuru’s life as ex-President not as comfortable, to say the least.
But this would have been a mistake he no doubt realised, because even as Uhuru was rejecting former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s entreaties, it was clear he was quietly rendering an ear to strategies to make sure Ruto is a one-term President.
Some would say that at least some people close to Uhuru would have been just fine for Ruto and Gachagua to be hounded out of office before the expiration of their first time—but it’s doubtful someone as serious as a former President would endorse that.
For Uhuru and the powers that be from Mt Kenya, the issue was more about making Ruto a one-term President.
The problem they had and still have is who could be their candidate to disgorge Ruto. The former President’s younger brother, Muhoho Kenyatta, was mentioned and remains on the list of potential contenders, but I have heard from seasoned politicians from the region his candidature would be a bit too much for many to swallow.
That is why this dangling of a Cabinet post for the man is interesting because, if that’s true and Muhuho ends up in the Cabinet, this will be akin to killing two birds with one: positioning Ruto to hang on to some bits of Mt Kenya, which he would need for 2027, while no doubt setting up Muhoho as his successor for 2032.
It’s encouraging to know that many from the Mt Kenya region also believe this rotational Presidency between two tribes must end and if there were an ideal time to end this, it would be after Ruto’s term.
Although many assumed Ruto was positioning Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi to succeed him in 2032 - if he makes it past 2027, the dynamics are shaping up to be for Ruto to survive 2027, he may sacrifice Musalia, because when push comes to shove, that will be a no brainer but will not bode well for the country.
All this has increasingly pointed to something obvious many of us have seen for a long time: our Presidential republic system doesn’t work.
We should do away with it and institute a Parliamentary system. This is certainly worth serious consideration.
The writer is a legal analyst and political commentator based in US
