The rapprochement between President William Ruto and his former-nemesis-turned ally Raila Odinga heralded a major shift in the country’s political landscape in 2024.
Through the duo’s pact, President William Ruto successfully pushed for the impeachment of his former deputy Rigathi Gachagua and elevated Kithure Kindiki to second in command.
Raila delivered the much-needed numbers that saw President Ruto whip for the removal of Gachagua from office and his swift replacement with Kindiki.
In a year of heightened political drama, Ruto tapped key opposition figures-at least five bigwigs to join his then-besieged government that nearly came down to its knees.
Analysts opine that the 2024 political events will shape the 2027 presidential contest in the country with Ruto widely expected to seek reelection for a final term.
The deal between Ruto and Raila split the opposition Azimio coalition, firming up a possible alliance between Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Gachagua ahead of the 2027 polls.
The alliance could also include DAP-K party leader Eugene Wamalwa and the Jubilee party of Retired President Uhuru Kenyatta.
There are indications that Raila could back President Ruto’s second term bid should he succeed in his quest for the African Union Commission chairperson post.
The elections are slated for February 2025 through a secret ballot by African Heads of State in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Ruto has aggressively rolled out an all-out campaign, bringing together some of the country’s top brains in diplomatic circles and top dons in public and private universities.
Insiders say President Ruto is determined to go flat out to ensure Raila secures the coveted seat as part of appeasing his support bases in Western Kenya, Coast and Nyanza to back his reelection bid.
Former South Mugirango MP Manson Oyongo said 2024 was the year President Ruto laid the foundation stone for his 2027 reelection bid.
The ex-assistant minister who served during the Grand Coalition government era, said the partnership between Ruto and Raila significantly highlights the 2027 plans.
“It is no doubt that during the year the country witnessed a strange marriage between Raila and Ruto but most importantly pointed to how the 2027 political contest would be,’’ Oyongo said.
Following the inclusion of some of Raila’s loyalists in government, there are indications of a looming coalition between Ruto’s UDA and ODM with a focus on the 2027 polls.
Following a wave of protests by Gen Zs that saw Parliament breached and young people storm the country’s legislature, President Ruto dissolved his Cabinet on July 11.
In an unprecedented move, the President fired almost all his Cabinet in a move to respond to concerns raised by Gen Zs and Millennials who pushed for radical reforms in government.
When he sent the Cabinet packing, Ruto then hinted at the formation of a broad-based government that he said would ensure an all-inclusive executive.
“I have acted after an extensive appraisal of the Cabinet performance,’’ Ruto said during an address to the nation on July 11.
“I will consult different sectors and political formations to identify those who will assist me in accelerating Kenya’s transformation.’’
After seven days of intense political lobbying, President Ruto emerged with the names of half of his Cabinet, sending home at least 11 CSs in his government.
Several of those nominated include members of the previous Cabinet including then Interior CS Kithure Kindiki and Aden Duale.
Duale who was first named as Defence in the first 11-member cabinet, was swiftly moved to the Environment and Climate Change docket when the names were submitted to the National Assembly
Others retained included Alice Wahome, who remained as Lands and Urban Development CS and Soipan Tuya who swapped roles with Duale to become the county’s Defence CS. She was initially named the CS for Environment and Climate Change.
Those unveiled included Julius Ogamba(Education), Debra Barasa(Health), Andrew Karanja(Agriculture), Eric Muuga(Water and Sanitation), Davis Chirchir (Roads and Transport), Margret Nyambura(ICT).
In another drastic move, President Ruto who initially named Rebecca Miano as the Attorney General swiftly moved her to the Tourism docket as he paved the way for the broad-based government.
Formed Deputy Director of Public Prosecutions Dorcas Oduor would later be named AG as Ruto unveiled opposition figures into government on July 24.
Others named included Raila’s two deputy party leaders in ODM including Hassan Joho (former Mombasa Governor) and ex-Kakamega County Chief Wycliffe Oparanya. Oparanya was handed the Cooperatives docket while Joho was given the Mining and Blue Economy portfolio.
Other ODM bigwigs who joined the Cabinet included Opiyo Wandayi(Energy and Petroleum), John Mbadi(National Treasury) and Beatrice Askul(East African Community).
In August, after his broad-based government had been sworn in, Ruto embarked on a historic tour of Raila’s Luo Nyanza heartland, signalling the thawing of ties.
This was Ruto’s most consequential trip to Raila’s stronghold after years of political hostilities that saw the president largely unwelcome in the region.
Ruto’s decision to work with Raila’s allies from Luo Nyanza excited the region and triggered a radical shift that saw the president make a grand entry into the region.
As an indication of political goodwill, Ruto unveiled Raila as Kenya’s candidate for the AUC position a day before his Luo Nyanza visit, changing his fortunes in the region.
The tour ignited talk of a 2027 coalition between Ruto and Raila with key opposition leaders vowing to work with the government.
Raila’s allies committed to backing his administration, saying they were optimistic their collaboration would remain firm in coming years.
National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohammed said they were committed to being in the government after the 2027 election and praised Ruto for opting to work with them.
“There is nobody who was born to be in opposition Kenya. I am holding my post as the minority leader for the next three years. Let those who want to be in opposition start preparing to be in opposition because we will be in the government as ODM,” Mohammed said.
Mbadi, the National Treasury CS, said they owed Ruto a lot for his role in helping Raila become prime minister in 2008.
“Remember when Ruto was our friend during the Pentagon? Had it not been for him, Raila would not have been prime minister. And now the friendship between us is here again and this time if we work well with him, we will have good fortunes,” said Mbadi.
Raila came in handy to stabilise Ruto’s besieged Kenya Kwanza administration from the nationwide wave of youth-led protests in June and July.
In recent days, their friendship seems to be growing, with ODM MPs accompanying Ruto to functions, including church services, and vehemently defending his government’s controversial decisions.
Ruto has also deployed heavy government machinery to
back Raila’s AUC chairmanship bid.
“If elections were held today, President William Ruto would be in a big mess. Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga might help, so he cannot survive without him,” university professor and political analyst Macharia Munene told the Star.
